Covid-19

[xu82]

Someone earlier posted some questions / thoughts regarding if the COVID vaccines were indeed effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths from the virus. I thought the following article does a good job of showing and explaining the effectiveness of the vaccines specific to certain age groups. It is a short read, but does a pretty good job summarizing the data to date:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ng-vaccinated/

Public reps because apparently that’s all I have available.

[Muskie in dayton]

Good stuff!

You've really focused on the seasonality aspect of this. Based on what you've read, do you believe there will be a 3rd wave this winter? My thoughts are that it will be the last major wave - though not nearly as pronounced as the last 2. Then the virus will become endemic as we will be in the herd immunity zone (knowing that the vast majority of cases were asymptomatic or unreported - per the CDC). Thoughts?

I believe that yes, there will absolutely be another wave this winter, most profound in the north and it will be comparable or worse than last winter. This is based seasonality and on the following:
- The vaccine is not at all sterilizing. The rates that the vaccinated transmit is showing as no different than the unvaxxed.
- Because of the waning VE, breakthrough cases will continue to increase.
- Reinfections are happening. It's a lower rate than breakthrough cases but they happen nonetheless.
- It lives in and transmits from animals, meaning even if the vax were 100% sterilizing, SARS-CoV-2 will persist.

The good news is that with each infection tends to result in weaker and weaker disease. I'd expect this trend to continue with more re-infections/vaccinations. So instead of "herd immunity" think of it as "herd resistance".

Some things - IMO - to consider as we move toward herd resistance:
- Infection w/o vax is much more dangerous than infection post-vax. All adults w/o confirmed prior infection should, for their own health, get vaccinated.
- Kids with a high-risk condition should be vaccinated as soon as approved.
- Vaccinating healthy kids is unnecessary because the risk of natural infection is so incredibly low (well below the flu). I don't see the cost-benefit ever favoring a vaccine here.
- For adults with natural immunity, anyone in a higher risk group really should still get the vax.
- For others with natural immunity a vax may still be a good idea, as it will provide small amount of additional protection (every bit helps). Lloyd posted a nice study on this a while back. This is a good "consult your doctor" situation.

Since I'm on a rant, here is what I see as how to end the pandemic (and would do if I were king of world!) Most important in bold:
1. Strive to vaccinate as much as possible. As noted above, but read on below...
2. Don't just end vax mandates, but make them illegal. At this point the vast majority of people that have not taken the vax fall into one of the following:
- Naturalists. They will never take it. Give up.
- Those with actual religions reasons. Same.
- Those that have had adverse reactions to to vaccines. They should never be forced to take it.
- And the largest group I believe by far: those who do not trust the government and/or big Pharma. More government coercion will not change that and may cause collateral damage w/r/t other vaccines. The mandates are divisive and destructive, and result in people digging in further. I very strongly believe that saying "OK, you don't have to get the vaccine. Just decide with input of your trusted doctor what is best", would do far more to increase %vaxxed than these harmful mandates. From my experience many, if not most, would get the vaccine if the decision fell entirely on them.
3. Continue to advance new therapeutics (mAb for sure, perhaps others).
4. Until mAb is widely available, use repurposed therapeutics like Ivermectin that have show some promise and are long-known to be safe.
5. Promote non-pharmaceutical protection (exercise/diet, immune-boosting vitamins/minerals). If the Gov't spent half the effort here that they did on masks/vaxxes, thousands of lives could have been saved.
5. End all NPIs. They are far more destructive than helpful.
6. End the mask mandates. Masks do very little (if anything) mechanistically, and any benefit is negated by improper wearing and a false sense of comfort. Mask mandates have proven without question to be fools gold.
7. Stop focusing on "cases". Stop reporting them altogether. Severe outcomes (hospitalizations, ICUs, deaths) should be fully the focus - this is what matters.
8. Stop testing healthy people. It elevates case numbers (false +) and emphasizes something that is really unimportant.
9. Stop using the PCR test all together for infection diagnosis. It's not intended for that and is being misused.
10. Finally, appreciate and educate on seasonality. Not only does this support several of the above measures, but it will also help people make good personal decisions about being more cautions at certain times of the year.

I'm sure I said something to piss off just about everyone who commonly posts here, so have at it!

[Strange Brew]

I believe that yes, there will absolutely be another wave this winter, most profound in the north and it will be comparable or worse than last winter. This is based seasonality and on the following:
- The vaccine is not at all sterilizing. The rates that the vaccinated transmit is showing as no different than the unvaxxed.
- Because of the waning VE, breakthrough cases will continue to increase.
- Reinfections are happening. It's a lower rate than breakthrough cases but they happen nonetheless.
- It lives in and transmits from animals, meaning even if the vax were 100% sterilizing, SARS-CoV-2 will persist.

The good news is that with each infection tends to result in weaker and weaker disease. I'd expect this trend to continue with more re-infections/vaccinations. So instead of "herd immunity" think of it as "herd resistance".

Some things - IMO - to consider as we move toward herd resistance:
- Infection w/o vax is much more dangerous than infection post-vax. All adults w/o confirmed prior infection should, for their own health, get vaccinated.
- Kids with a high-risk condition should be vaccinated as soon as approved.
- Vaccinating healthy kids is unnecessary because the risk of natural infection is so incredibly low (well below the flu). I don't see the cost-benefit ever favoring a vaccine here.
- For adults with natural immunity, anyone in a higher risk group really should still get the vax.
- For others with natural immunity a vax may still be a good idea, as it will provide small amount of additional protection (every bit helps). Lloyd posted a nice study on this a while back. This is a good "consult your doctor" situation.

Since I'm on a rant, here is what I see as how to end the pandemic (and would do if I were king of world!) Most important in bold:
1. Strive to vaccinate as much as possible. As noted above, but read on below...
2. Don't just end vax mandates, but make them illegal. At this point the vast majority of people that have not taken the vax fall into one of the following:
- Naturalists. They will never take it. Give up.
- Those with actual religions reasons. Same.
- Those that have had adverse reactions to to vaccines. They should never be forced to take it.
- And the largest group I believe by far: those who do not trust the government and/or big Pharma. More government coercion will not change that and may cause collateral damage w/r/t other vaccines. The mandates are divisive and destructive, and result in people digging in further. I very strongly believe that saying "OK, you don't have to get the vaccine. Just decide with input of your trusted doctor what is best", would do far more to increase %vaxxed than these harmful mandates. From my experience many, if not most, would get the vaccine if the decision fell entirely on them.
3. Continue to advance new therapeutics (mAb for sure, perhaps others).
4. Until mAb is widely available, use repurposed therapeutics like Ivermectin that have show some promise and are long-known to be safe.
5. Promote non-pharmaceutical protection (exercise/diet, immune-boosting vitamins/minerals). If the Gov't spent half the effort here that they did on masks/vaxxes, thousands of lives could have been saved.
5. End all NPIs. They are far more destructive than helpful.
6. End the mask mandates. Masks do very little (if anything) mechanistically, and any benefit is negated by improper wearing and a false sense of comfort. Mask mandates have proven without question to be fools gold.
7. Stop focusing on "cases". Stop reporting them altogether. Severe outcomes (hospitalizations, ICUs, deaths) should be fully the focus - this is what matters.
8. Stop testing healthy people. It elevates case numbers (false +) and emphasizes something that is really unimportant.
9. Stop using the PCR test all together for infection diagnosis. It's not intended for that and is being misused.
10. Finally, appreciate and educate on seasonality. Not only does this support several of the above measures, but it will also help people make good personal decisions about being more cautions at certain times of the year.

I'm sure I said something to piss off just about everyone who commonly posts here, so have at it!

Anything to add? Me: No, that pretty much covers it.(ala Carville in Old School) Public reps.

[xu82]

I believe that yes, there will absolutely be another wave this winter, most profound in the north and it will be comparable or worse than last winter. This is based seasonality and on the following:
- The vaccine is not at all sterilizing. The rates that the vaccinated transmit is showing as no different than the unvaxxed.
- Because of the waning VE, breakthrough cases will continue to increase.
- Reinfections are happening. It's a lower rate than breakthrough cases but they happen nonetheless.
- It lives in and transmits from animals, meaning even if the vax were 100% sterilizing, SARS-CoV-2 will persist.

The good news is that with each infection tends to result in weaker and weaker disease. I'd expect this trend to continue with more re-infections/vaccinations. So instead of "herd immunity" think of it as "herd resistance".

Some things - IMO - to consider as we move toward herd resistance:
- Infection w/o vax is much more dangerous than infection post-vax. All adults w/o confirmed prior infection should, for their own health, get vaccinated.
- Kids with a high-risk condition should be vaccinated as soon as approved.
- Vaccinating healthy kids is unnecessary because the risk of natural infection is so incredibly low (well below the flu). I don't see the cost-benefit ever favoring a vaccine here.
- For adults with natural immunity, anyone in a higher risk group really should still get the vax.
- For others with natural immunity a vax may still be a good idea, as it will provide small amount of additional protection (every bit helps). Lloyd posted a nice study on this a while back. This is a good "consult your doctor" situation.

Since I'm on a rant, here is what I see as how to end the pandemic (and would do if I were king of world!) Most important in bold:
1. Strive to vaccinate as much as possible. As noted above, but read on below...
2. Don't just end vax mandates, but make them illegal. At this point the vast majority of people that have not taken the vax fall into one of the following:
- Naturalists. They will never take it. Give up.
- Those with actual religions reasons. Same.
- Those that have had adverse reactions to to vaccines. They should never be forced to take it.
- And the largest group I believe by far: those who do not trust the government and/or big Pharma. More government coercion will not change that and may cause collateral damage w/r/t other vaccines. The mandates are divisive and destructive, and result in people digging in further. I very strongly believe that saying "OK, you don't have to get the vaccine. Just decide with input of your trusted doctor what is best", would do far more to increase %vaxxed than these harmful mandates. From my experience many, if not most, would get the vaccine if the decision fell entirely on them.
3. Continue to advance new therapeutics (mAb for sure, perhaps others).
4. Until mAb is widely available, use repurposed therapeutics like Ivermectin that have show some promise and are long-known to be safe.
5. Promote non-pharmaceutical protection (exercise/diet, immune-boosting vitamins/minerals). If the Gov't spent half the effort here that they did on masks/vaxxes, thousands of lives could have been saved.
5. End all NPIs. They are far more destructive than helpful.
6. End the mask mandates. Masks do very little (if anything) mechanistically, and any benefit is negated by improper wearing and a false sense of comfort. Mask mandates have proven without question to be fools gold.
7. Stop focusing on "cases". Stop reporting them altogether. Severe outcomes (hospitalizations, ICUs, deaths) should be fully the focus - this is what matters.
8. Stop testing healthy people. It elevates case numbers (false +) and emphasizes something that is really unimportant.
9. Stop using the PCR test all together for infection diagnosis. It's not intended for that and is being misused.
10. Finally, appreciate and educate on seasonality. Not only does this support several of the above measures, but it will also help people make good personal decisions about being more cautions at certain times of the year.

I'm sure I said something to piss off just about everyone who commonly posts here, so have at it!

I barely skimmed this and have no opinion on most of it, other than to say #7 makes a lot of sense to me.

[Strange Brew]

I barely skimmed this and have no opinion on most of it, other than to say #7 makes a lot of sense to me.

Nah, let’s keep counting them and listen to the silent crickets who were chirping about FL….

[xu82]

Nah, let’s keep counting them and listen to the silent crickets who were chirping about FL….

I try to see both sides and use common sense. I stay away from politics because it’s so ugly and unproductive. It would be nice if this topic were less divisive. It sometimes seems this should be merged with the politics thread, unfortunately.

[paulxu]

Australian humor:

NEW - Australia's Northern Territory imposes the strictest vaccine mandate in the world. Those who don't comply by Nov. 13 will be fined $5,000.

Ted Cruz responds:

I love the Aussies. Their history of rugged independence is legendary; I’ve always said Australia is the Texas of the Pacific.
The Covid tyranny of their current government is disgraceful & sad.
Individual liberty matters.

The Chief Minister of the Northern Territory responds to Ted:

[Smails]

Australian humor:


Ted Cruz responds:


The Chief Minister of the Northern Territory responds to Ted:

Paul- I asked you this earlier and I'll repeat it since you seem to be trumpeting Aussie talking points. Do you think the USA should implement Australia's measures and systems for enforcing vaccination? Do you stand with them on this topic.

[paulxu]

Paul- I asked you this earlier and I'll repeat it since you seem to be trumpeting Aussie talking points. Do you think the USA should implement Australia's measures and systems for enforcing vaccination? Do you stand with them on this topic.

I'm not knowledgeable about all their measures so not in a good place to answer your question. Will try to read up on the various items to see what their differences are. My post was really an appreciation of their minister's response to Cruz' and the Longhorn humor.
What is apparent from the months we have been dealing with Covid, that whatever they are doing has produced some good results for their population in the midst of a public health crisis. They seemed to have treated it that way, a public health crisis, and not overly confused the issue with politics.

Australia's death rate per 100K is 6.2.
The US's death rate per 100K is 221.4.
That's a massive difference. They are certainly helped by being an "island" and perhaps other factors.
But we're worried about a cup of coffee in a park, while they are seemingly more focused on saving lives.
If we had their death rate, we'd have lost 20,000...not 700,000.

I understand that's impossible given the country's differences, population densities, etc.
But someplace between 6 and 220 is where we might be if we'd just focus on the public health crisis and not all the other nonsense.
And might have saved thousands of lives.

[Smails]

I'm not knowledgeable about all their measures so not in a good place to answer your question. Will try to read up on the various items to see what their differences are.

Lol..yeah right. You know damn well what has been happening in Australia as evidenced by your 'cup of coffee in the park comment.' Come back after you have 'read up' and let us know if you think the USA should take similar measures. In your own post you quoted that the Northern territory is putting a 5k fine on anyone who is unvaxxed. Would you support similar punitive actions in the US against the unvaxxed?