Xavier: A Glimpse Into the Future

[paulxu]

I'd hope there was a big buy out to leave for UConn if they are thinking of going...and all their units stay with the conference.

[sirthought]

My gut says UCONN stays. Karma will be a motivator.

But even though UCONN has many positives, it won't be a huge loss if the Big 12 doesn't get them. All that time and travel expense could be a real issue to Big 12 schools already up to their armpits in that expense.

[xudash]

I'd hope there was a big buy out to leave for UConn if they are thinking of going...and all their units stay with the conference.

$30 million if they leave within the first 6 years of returning, so the buyout is $30 million. I seriously doubt they will be allowed to negotiate that down, including any offer by them to guaranty scheduling with existing Big East teams moving forward. In fact, that is the ONE thing the Big East will probably really light up - any such scheduling agreements would only benefit UCONN at that point. They will be positioned to die on the vine in New England.

All their NCAAT Units will absolutely stay with the Big East.

I understand their massive need to grab cash. But going to the Big 12 strikes me as being a Bridge Too Far. Their athletic department already is bleeding from football. $30mm out the door, albeit on an amortizing basis most likely is still going to sting badly (e.g. $5mm per year for 6 years or vice versa or $10mm over three years). Hell, if I'm Val and company, I would view UCONN as a shaky Accounts Receivable.

On the flip side, they will not receive a full share going into the Big 12 and they're going to have to pay an entry fee to get into it. Then it's tailgate city before going into the stadium to watch ... Iowa State, etc.

[paulxu]

Thanks Dash. Maybe there are some crazy deep pocket alums that love UConn football.
Or...maybe they think the P5 will leave the NCAA and they want to get on board.
They're certainly a good fit for basketball in our conference.

[xudash]

Thanks Dash. Maybe there are some crazy deep pocket alums that love UConn football.
Or...maybe they think the P5 will leave the NCAA and they want to get on board.
They're certainly a good fit for basketball in our conference.

Paul, two things come to mind when it comes to the notion of the "P5" leaving the NCAA:

1. There no longer is a "P5" - it's the B1G and the SEC and everyone else, with 3 conferences vying for some form of relevant survival; and

2. IMHO, the NCAAT, as it exists, is virtually untouchable. Why? Because it already is optimized from a monetary standpoint, based on its inclusivity. Were the powerful football schools to break off, then they would kill the numerator, even though they would be successful in shrinking the denominator. The power conferences already have Selection Sunday set up to benefit them at the expense of mid-major and low-major conferences:

https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/post...t-01gvk4sfcy87

Purdue fans, as one example, may still sting from having been taken out so early, but the conference still collected 8 slots and a handsome pile of NCAAT Units. Overall, the so called "P5" collected 32 spots in this past year's tournament - they almost soaked up 50% of the bracket. That is a handsome take, given the size of the numerator.

Were 60 to 65 football schools to break away and form their own basketball tournament, do they cut the tournament to, say 36 schools? 65 going to 12 slots for a football championship. 65 going to 65 for a basketball championship? Uhm, no. So, you already have 32 programs participating in THE EVENT with its massive payouts. Who wants to "net up to" 36 participants in a tournament that has a badly wounded media payout? Who wants to create such ill will across the nation, given how much they've already created with what they've done with their flagship sport?

I just can't see CBS and its broadcast partners liking the idea of dismantling the premier spring sporting event. Frankly, notwithstanding the risk of the power schools playing the role of Goliath to some small school's David over the course of the first weekend - primarily - I have to imagine that most of the AD's of the power football schools enjoy the tournament as it exists. National excitement with multiple tournament sites is a real thing. They would only hurt themselves if they water that down.

[XUGRAD80]

The basketball NCAA tournament is such a small component of realignment that it barely deserves mentioning. Realignment is about 2 things……football and TV NETWORK MONEY…..and who gets it and who controls it. That is, which conferences and which teams within those conferences.

The BB tournament is not controlled by any conference, their TV partners, or by any schools. The “NCAA” BB tournament is a totally separate entity from the TV contracts that these conferences are signing. Sure, the tourney participants get money from the tourney, as do many conferences. But often they are NOT a real money maker for many of the schools participating. IF the major football conferences wanted to break away, they could easily supplant the current NCAA tournament with one of their own, and it would still gain huge viewership. The NCAA tourney would become a second tier tournament, made up mainly of mid-major and smaller schools, and with limited viewership. Kind of like the current NIT (which at one time was THE tournament to be in and the NCAA was 2nd fiddle).

If that happens….does the new super conferences tournament include the BE? Or does the BE end up in the lower tier tournament? I’m sure that UConn is taking this into consideration when deciding what to do. I’m sure that Gonzaga is too. Certainly not their only concern, but I think that it has to be something they are thinking about. I’d like to think that the BE conference would be welcome, BUT would the NCAA allow them to participate in a tournament that wasn’t sanctioned by them? I think not.

None of this is cut and dry and all possible scenarios need to be looked at and considered. I’m not saying that IS going to happen, only that it COULD happen. My post below says what I think WILL happen.

[paulxu]

Could they break away for just football? Or is that a crazy idea.

[XUGRAD80]

Could they break away for just football? Or is that a crazy idea.

Sure they could, and it’s an idea that I have seen proposed elsewhere many times. But why would they? It seems to me that the football powerhouses are already calling all the shots and the “NCAA” administration really doesn’t have that much power.

I think it much more likely that a new division, for football only, is created within the current NCAA structure. That this new division be made up by the major football schools, and that it be self governing, and with its own set of rules. The advantage for the schools of remaining within the NCAA framework would be that the “other” sports could remain within the current NCAA structure and rules, and participate in current NCAA championships.

[UCGRAD4X]

The new 12 team football playoffs starts next year. The P5 conference winners are automatically included. Chance of one winning. 100-1. But having a place at the table will go a long way to keeping the conferences relevant.

[xudash]

The new 12 team football playoffs starts next year. The P5 conference winners are automatically included. Chance of one winning. 100-1. But having a place at the table will go a long way to keeping the conferences relevant.

UCGRAD4X, I agree with you with respect to approximately 60 schools finding a way to keep their football programs relevant, especially given the expanded playoff format. Let's treat that as "the floor" for purposes of the rest of this conversation.

So, they'll remain relevant. They'll have a shot at a 12-team playoff, and the bowls will move forward in some fashion. With all that noted, a lot of their athletic departments are still going to be operating in the red outright, and the widening financial gap between the rest of them and the B1G and SEC will be pronounced.

They won't be the walking dead. I'll accept that. But they'll have a couple of Donzi's with jet propulsion out in front of them as they try to keep their twin 250 horsepower Evinrudes running.

- - - - -

XUGRAD80, we'll agree to disagree on this statement: "IF the major football conferences wanted to break away, they could easily supplant the current NCAA tournament with one of their own, and it would still gain huge viewership."

A break away move like that would not be easy. Certainly doable, but not easy. But, more importantly, while I agree with you about them being able to throw their large student and alumni bases at the viewership pool for such a tournament, I believe you are seriously discounting the number of fans that come at the current NCAAT casually or from the other 300'ish schools that always hope they have a shot at the current NCAAT via their conference tournaments, mainly. Again, how would they format their tournament? Does everyone get in? Do they limit it to 36 or maybe 48 teams? First weekend viewing would most likely be comparatively rancid, given that Georgia Tech v Iowa State, as one example, isn't going to light up the Nielsen Ratings.

AT THE MARGIN, could a break away tournament be made to be worthwhile financially? I don't see it happening, especially if a second tournament is put together for all the others that runs parallel to their break away show - a revitalized NIT with more money, albeit not great money.

I'm biased on this one. They have no reason to attempt to solve for basketball. You said it yourself: they're focused on football and the media deals that come from all that activity.