Originally Posted by
xudash
What we're seeing now performance wise versus what we'll see in a few years could - most likely will - change. The Big 12 having multiple teams in the polls this season has nothing to do with how many it may have in the polls 5 or 10 years from now - I assume we're taking a more long-term strategic view of all of this. Losing Texas and Oklahoma will be at least about $20 million per year per school devastating to Big 12 members. And stating that picking up Texas and OU is not going to help the SEC in the long run is your opinion. Texas is a formidable athletic program. College football is facing such substantial change - at least economic change - in the near future that there will be some shifting in status taking place between the programs.
Here we are in 2022 with the so-called "P5" in full force and valid order. We sit here as of today with TCU making it into the playoff. How well will TCU be doing in football after the Big 12 resets? How well can it do in football with around $20 million less in its athletic budget and with a base of less than 15,000 students (i.e. "student fee subsidy opportunities")?
On the other hand, IMHO, XUGRAD80's following insight is spot on:
If there continues to be scholarship limits, and accounting for the idea that players want to play and not just sit on the bench, the talent should be somewhat spread out among the top 50-60 schools (including most BiG 12 schools) and there should be potential for schools outside the B10 and SEC to fill some of the at-large bids in the 12 team tourney.
I agree with your analysis as to why Fickell left now. In essence, it was a preservation move based upon making a delicate timing play.
However, that at least somewhat recognizes the key factor that his upside at UC was limited. Ohio State doesn't rebuild. It reloads. If the perception of being a rising power is fragile, then the underlying program that generates the perception is itself lacking somewhere. Example: Nippert is a beautiful setting for a college football stadium and it has history, but it also simply is not a major league collegiate stadium. Another example is UC presently chasing funding for a $100 million practice facility.
Perhaps the other conferences will have some surprises as you suggest. But then again, with about $90 million per school per year, both the SEC and B1G may pop a few surprises out of the cake as well.
I arrive back at 80's point: supply and demand of talent. On a relative basis, the best of the best are mostly going to migrate to the top schools in the top two conferences, and those truly major college programs will be very deep on their bench strength. Nonetheless, assuming there is enough around, the remaining conferences will still be able to field competitive football teams. There will still be hope for snagging a playoff spot for some of those teams, while the others will otherwise play their games for their traditions, weekend experiences, etc.
