Fickell GONE!

[xudash]

The real key will be this……will the Big 10 and SEC remain a part of the NCAA or will they break away and form their own organization? (And if they do break away, will others join them?) Right now, under current NCAA rules, all schools have to limit how many scholarship players they have. Theoretically that means that no one school, or conference, can stockpile all of the best talent and it theoretically creates some parity. But if they form their own organization, without the scholarship limits, that goes out the window. If there continues to be scholarship limits, and accounting for the idea that players want to play and not just sit on the bench, the talent should be somewhat spread out among the top 50-60 schools (including most BiG 12 schools) and there should be potential for schools outside the B10 and SEC to fill some of the at-large bids in the 12 team tourney.

5 conference champions
1 group of 5 team
6 at-large

6 at-large…..2 from B10, 2 from SEC (which means the top 3 teams in each of those conferences probably makes it) and 2 from all the rest. OOC schedule and wins are going to be important. The B10 and SEC will fill out 1/2 the tourney, with all other schools fighting it out for the other half. Everyone sees that……one reason that Fickell might have chosen to leave now, and for a B10 school.

BUT……college football is different than college BB. It’s not ALL about playing in the national championship tourney. Regular season, conference championships, rivalry games really matter to most fans. The social aspect of game days is at least as important as the games themselves to hundreds of thousands of fans. Even if a school has 0 chance of winning a national championship, as long as they continue to be competitive within their league they will continue to have a large and loyal fan base. This is true for virtually every school playing in a top conference. Game days are an experience that is greater than any single game. College football will continue to be the big dog when it comes to college sports.

Great post. Good points.

[GoMuskies]

UC might hire Tom Herman, huh? Hey, every individual is different, but I'd invite them to look at the career path of the last coach to kill it in the Big East/American, take the Texas job and then return to the same level. THAT guy went 21-16 at USF and got fired.

[Masterofreality]

UC might hire Tom Herman, huh? Hey, every individual is different, but I'd invite them to look at the career path of the last coach to kill it in the Big East/American, take the Texas job and then return to the same level. THAT guy went 21-16 at USF and got fired.

That’s kinda what WE want.

Isn’t it??

[sirthought]

All this talk about the new P2. Note that the Big 12 had multiple teams in the top 25 this season. Losing TX and OK will not be as devastating as so many claim. (And it's not going to help SEC in the long run.) The Big 10 and SEC are clearly trying to make this the reality but other conferences may have some surprises.

With Fickell it's not just about conference. Yeah, any coach would like the opportunities available in the Big 10. But he was also running up against that delicate line of what every successful coach runs up against. And that's lack of success compared to expectations. When exactly have you been in one job too long?

He had one terrible first year, and then it took two or three seasons to really start seeing how they could elevate things in the national spotlight. But this year was a rebuild and next year might be even more of one. You risk the chance that recruits no longer view you as the rising power, and just maybe things don't lock in again for a while. Then it's not just your job, but your whole career is in the hot seat.

At Wisconsin he has a cushion of time with people forgiving that it might take a season or two. He'll be viewed as a rising hotshot bringing in word of mouth in recruiting circles. The trajectory of where he's headed is less risky.

And he might have continued to be strong with UC in the Big 12. They have an infrastructure to do well with almost any coach. But if he held on at UC and for whatever reason that didn't happen, this was the right time for him to move. His stock wasn't going to get any higher with the current trajectory.

Purely a preservation move, no matter what UC's circumstance is.

[GoMuskies]

That’s kinda what WE want.

Isn’t it??

I don't really care that much, honestly. UC football being good is no skin off my nose. They're not in any way a rival of Xavier and never will be again. But if they suck I also won't be heartbroken.

[XUGRAD80]

That’s kinda what WE want.

Isn’t it??

There are a lot of Cincinnati area residents, who are also Xavier BB fans, that follow UC football. Maybe if X hadn’t dropped FB decades ago it would be different. But there’s no way I’m going to root for OSU or UK, so that kinda leaves UC. Since so many of my friends are UC grads and fans, I guess I just followed along with them and because a UC fan over the years. My kids and grandkids are fans too, as is my wife. Doesn’t mean I love X any less, I’m a proud grad. But dropping FB meant them losing a couple of generations of potential fans. I’m certainly not the only XU grad that attends UC football games on a regular basis.

[D-West & PO-Z]

All this talk about the new P2. Note that the Big 12 had multiple teams in the top 25 this season. Losing TX and OK will not be as devastating as so many claim. (And it's not going to help SEC in the long run.) The Big 10 and SEC are clearly trying to make this the reality but other conferences may have some surprises.

With Fickell it's not just about conference. Yeah, any coach would like the opportunities available in the Big 10. But he was also running up against that delicate line of what every successful coach runs up against. And that's lack of success compared to expectations. When exactly have you been in one job too long?

He had one terrible first year, and then it took two or three seasons to really start seeing how they could elevate things in the national spotlight. But this year was a rebuild and next year might be even more of one. You risk the chance that recruits no longer view you as the rising power, and just maybe things don't lock in again for a while. Then it's not just your job, but your whole career is in the hot seat.

At Wisconsin he has a cushion of time with people forgiving that it might take a season or two. He'll be viewed as a rising hotshot bringing in word of mouth in recruiting circles. The trajectory of where he's headed is less risky.

And he might have continued to be strong with UC in the Big 12. They have an infrastructure to do well with almost any coach. But if he held on at UC and for whatever reason that didn't happen, this was the right time for him to move. His stock wasn't going to get any higher with the current trajectory.

Purely a preservation move, no matter what UC's circumstance is.

So Fickell left because he was or was going to start feeling heat at UC? Not sure I am buying that one.

I do buy that he was concerned about UC's QB situation and overall talent issue heading into the Big 12. So I guess in that regard he was maybe concerned about a lack of success over the next few years and his star not shining as bright. But he had plenty of time at UC regardless of outcomes due to what he had already done. But I do get other schools may have not looked at his as favorably.

[sirthought]

So Fickell left because he was or was going to start feeling heat at UC? Not sure I am buying that one.

I do buy that he was concerned about UC's QB situation and overall talent issue heading into the Big 12. So I guess in that regard he was maybe concerned about a lack of success over the next few years and his star not shining as bright. But he had plenty of time at UC regardless of outcomes due to what he had already done. But I do get other schools may have not looked at his as favorably.

So you just re-stated exactly my reasoning. I'm not saying he would feel the heat, but the potential is there and he knows if that happens he's not going to get opportunities like he might now. It's about self preservation and readjusting expectations so you are always on an upward trajectory.

Plenty of coaches have stayed where they are comfortable and the community loves them, but they then end up in a bad spot.

[D-West & PO-Z]

So you just re-stated exactly my reasoning. I'm not saying he would feel the heat, but the potential is there and he knows if that happens he's not going to get opportunities like he might now. It's about self preservation and readjusting expectations so you are always on an upward trajectory.

Plenty of coaches have stayed where they are comfortable and the community loves them, but they then end up in a bad spot.

Ok, I can totally get that he doesnt have faith UC is going to make a successful transition into the Big 12 and he wanted to leave while his stock was high. He also probably could have stayed his entire career at UC regardless of outcome, so if he never had plans to leave he would have been fine.

I am not sure if ND wanted Fickell last year or not but I am guessing Fickell would have taken that job if offered and it didn't interfere with UC CFP run.

[xubrew]

As far as this being a complete stunner, perhaps it was to the fans, but I don't think it was to Cunningham. Not only do I think he was not stunned, I think he actually saw it coming and at least has a plan of what he wants to do next. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it isn't a big name. UC is kind of in a unique situation. The program is highly successful, but the pressure to make a "safe" hire really isn't there. He can go with whoever HE feels is best without fearing the backlash from boosters and donors, and at the P5 level that's kind of not the norm.

As far as "stepping stones," those still exist. For sure. But we're also sort of in a new era now where coaches will look to make lateral moves. We've seen it with Brian Kelly, and Jimbo Fischer. We've sort of seen it with Mike Leach because while Wazzu may not be a football blue blood, while he was there their brand was arguably as good or better than Mississippi State's. And, there are some other examples too. You get the idea. You're seeing it more and more, and I think you're going to continue to see it. The reason is coaches have learned that if they make a move while they're still hot they sort of reset the "honeymoon" period, and can actually secure more long term money by making the school they're moving laterally to make it worth their while. I'm pretty sure Cunningham also realizes that this is a growing trend.

So this move wasn't THAT out of the blue. Perhaps it was to the fans. But UC was not totally depanted by this. I think they knew.