Politics Thread

[xuwillie]

I love when people come on here and spout total nonsense with no data to back them.

Trump leads indies by 10+ percentage points - in head-to-head, or when the other candidates are included:

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-con...KeyResults.pdf


Up 6 points in both these:

https://tippinsights.com/will-trumps...i-i-tipp-poll/

https://www.foxnews.com/official-pol...62-gop-primary

Plus, Trump receives record support among groups Biden needs to win re-election. Compared to the final Fox News pre-election matchup in October 2020, Trump has made gains among independents (up 21 points), Blacks (+15), Hispanics (+13), suburban voters (+8), and men (+4).

Long way to go and I see a lot of people staying home instead of voting for Trump. I do expect him the get a huge jump in black vote, less and less are buying into Trump is a racist argument like they where in '20

[XU_Lou]

Polls are wrong more often than not, I don’t take much stock in them, especially when common sense says otherwise and when it’s 10 months out. Hilary was going to win in a landslide and trump was going to win in 20

See New Hampshire indepent voting tonight to have a clue as to how independents actually think about trump.

Oh and by the way it wasn’t out of nowhere. I know it’s difficult for you to read things that aren’t from your narrative, but this was posted earlier:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...oblem-00137112

Although like I said, I just shrug at polls. They are wrong all the time

Yea, I guess polls are always wrong when they go against your prognostications. LOL!!!

In NH - you mean the Dems who switched to Indies to vote for Haley!!! LOL!!!

"In New Hampshire, thousands of Democratic voters have switched party affiliation to Republican or undeclared ahead of the state's primary next week. Some say they switched to support Nikki Haley." https://www.npr.org/2024/01/17/12252...ty-affiliation

Politico = opinion = wishful thinking. I provided hard data.

[Xville]

Yea, I guess polls are always wrong when they go against your prognostications. LOL!!!

In NH - you mean the Dems who switched to Indies to vote for Haley!!! LOL!!!

"In New Hampshire, thousands of Democratic voters have switched party affiliation to Republican or undeclared ahead of the state's primary next week. Some say they switched to support Nikki Haley." https://www.npr.org/2024/01/17/12252...ty-affiliation

Politico = opinion = wishful thinking. I provided hard data.

Ok so you didn’t read it. There were your polls in there and they weren’t about nh. Your “hard data.” Typical.

Moving on

[Xville]

Long way to go and I see a lot of people staying home instead of voting for Trump. I do expect him the get a huge jump in black vote, less and less are buying into Trump is a racist argument like they where in '20

I’m going to vote but if it’s those two, I’ll be leaving that one blank. Can’t morally vote for either of them

[XU_Lou]

There were your polls in there and they weren’t about nh.

See post #20352. You are aware that there's an electronic trail of you've said, right?

As you mentioned independents aren’t voting for trump.

Lets examine the ridiculousness and wishful thinking of the two polls cited in the article you posted. Your article said:

"It’s an issue that became starkly apparent in polling ahead of the Iowa caucuses, when an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in that state found that fully 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump."

If that were true, then Trump would be headed for disaster in IA, right? Only problem with that quote is that Trump is up 9-13 points in IA against Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ral/2024/iowa/

* Looks like pure wishful thinking on the part of Politico and that poll. Or maybe what we're talking about is 43% of a grape, rather than a watermelon.


The article then cites a New York Times/Siena College poll.

Out of this and the three polls I cited, the New York Times/Siena College poll performed the worst in 2020. Biden won 2020 by 4.5 points. In the final New York Times/Siena College poll before the election they said Biden was up 9 points - double what actually happened!! Likely a result of over sampling Dems and Dem-leaning indies, right?

Out of these same polls the final TIPP poll was the closest - they had Biden leading by 4 points. Today, as mentioned in Post #20351, they have Trump up 6 points among Indies.


Oh yea, and BTW, wasn't you who said:

48-49% of the country identify as independents.

But your precious New York Times/Siena College poll states that only 29% of the respondents in their survey considered themselves Indie. Hmmm..., who's right?

[Xuperman]

It would be! Literally ANYONE else!!

And the same is true for the Democrats!! They'd win in a landslide if it was someone other than Biden. But it won't be.

Oh, it most certainly will be. Can you imagine Biden in a 2 hr Presidential debate? My God, there is no way he could avoid total disaster.

There will be zero votes for sleepy Joe because he will not be on the ballot.

[Xville]

See post #20352. You are aware that there's an electronic trail of you've said, right?




Lets examine the ridiculousness and wishful thinking of the two polls cited in the article you posted. Your article said:

"It’s an issue that became starkly apparent in polling ahead of the Iowa caucuses, when an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in that state found that fully 43 percent of Nikki Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump."

If that were true, then Trump would be headed for disaster in IA, right? Only problem with that quote is that Trump is up 9-13 points in IA against Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ral/2024/iowa/

* Looks like pure wishful thinking on the part of Politico and that poll. Or maybe what we're talking about is 43% of a grape, rather than a watermelon.


The article then cites a New York Times/Siena College poll.

Out of this and the three polls I cited, the New York Times/Siena College poll performed the worst in 2020. Biden won 2020 by 4.5 points. In the final New York Times/Siena College poll before the election they said Biden was up 9 points - double what actually happened!! Likely a result of over sampling Dems and Dem-leaning indies, right?

Out of these same polls the final TIPP poll was the closest - they had Biden leading by 4 points. Today, as mentioned in Post #20351, they have Trump up 6 points among Indies.


Oh yea, and BTW, wasn't you who said:



But your precious New York Times/Siena College poll states that only 29% of the respondents in their survey considered themselves Indie. Hmmm..., who's right?

You seem angry. It’s polling dude, especially ten months out no one is right. The 48-49 is Gallup btw and nationwide. We know You think you’re right. Anyways, moving on

[xuphan]

Oh, it most certainly will be. Can you imagine Biden in a 2 hr Presidential debate? My God, there is no way he could avoid total disaster.

There will be zero votes for sleepy Joe because he will not be on the ballot.

Wish you were right but it seems inevitable that it will be Biden vs Trump. Have to wonder if Comedy Central will pick up the presidential debates at this point. This country is such a laughing stock at the moment. Hope we can survive until 2028.

[GoMuskies]

It's over. Biden vs Trump unless something weird happens (health or courts). I'll vote third party, but if I was in a swing state I might actually have voted Trump. Biden is basically dead.

[XU_Lou]

Trump crushed Nikki tonight. The vast majority of her "voters" were Dems: https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/stat...80189721784804

Still don't think this looks highly suspicious?: a total of 143K votes were cast in the 2020 R NH primary. This year: it looks like ~313K will be cast.

I have a feeling one extremely frequent poster is going to turn this thread into a Dayton message board.

Someone might want to send him some cheese.... because we all know he'll never move on.