Covid-19

[paulxu]

Here's a hypothetical for you medical types. What if:
1 - A month's notice was given to everybody; stock up with a 2 week supply of everything (might be hard for food)
2 - After a month, the whole country goes on a 2 week total lockdown
3 - Nobody in or out of the country, nobody goes anywhere...except the hospital

Would the virus completely die off? Or at least die off to the point where we could contact trace/quarantine ALL new cases to eradicate it.

Yes, I know this sounds like a plot of a movie. I was just wondering, because it sort of mirrors what Taiwan and some other island nations did.

[xavierj]

Wow completely scary...glad to hear he is ok now!..ok i take back what i just said.

Thanks. It’s a weird virus for sure. I know a lot of people who had it with no issues. A lot of the players on my sons team have had it and returned without issue, although one has a lung issue that they are not sure if he already had it or is a result of the virus. What it did to my son defiantly opened my eyes that it could be a lot more than I thought it was. We probably won’t know for sure for a long time exactly what this thing does or can do.

[bobbiemcgee]

Stupids in Sturgis:


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/st...&ocid=msedgdhp

[JTG]

Stupids in Sturgis:


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/st...&ocid=msedgdhp

Is anyone , at all, surprised by this ? Sturgis isn't exactly a Mensa convention.

[boozehound]

Thanks. It’s a weird virus for sure. I know a lot of people who had it with no issues. A lot of the players on my sons team have had it and returned without issue, although one has a lung issue that they are not sure if he already had it or is a result of the virus. What it did to my son defiantly opened my eyes that it could be a lot more than I thought it was. We probably won’t know for sure for a long time exactly what this thing does or can do.

Thank you for posting this (and the previous post). It's very easy for people to dismiss this until they see someone young and healthy have a severe reaction. I'm sure some day we will know more about who is most at risk and why. In the meantime I advocate for reasonable (but not extreme) precautions being taken by all parties to limit transmission until we know more about this disease (and how to treat it) or until we have a vaccine.

We already have a significant breakthrough (it sounds like) with Dexamethasone being used to treat severe cases successfully and the improvement in care has started to translate into lower death rates. This isn't just something that affects the old and sick (although the mentality that it is somehow less of an issue if it only affects the old and sick is troubling), but can affect the healthy as well - although it's statistically much less likely.

Also - someone mentioned a 2 week shutdown with 2 weeks notice. I think you would need more like a 3-4 week shutdown to account for transmission within families and the appropriate incubation period, followed by aggressive testing and contact tracing. That would be tough, but might be worth it if we could stop the spread of this. Much of Asia is doing this very effectively, but I'm not sure it would work in America. Heck - we can't even get people to talk to contact tracers here in NJ, and we have been relatively compliant with public safety measures as a state.

[GIMMFD]

Here's a hypothetical for you medical types. What if:
1 - A month's notice was given to everybody; stock up with a 2 week supply of everything (might be hard for food)
2 - After a month, the whole country goes on a 2 week total lockdown
3 - Nobody in or out of the country, nobody goes anywhere...except the hospital

Would the virus completely die off? Or at least die off to the point where we could contact trace/quarantine ALL new cases to eradicate it.

Yes, I know this sounds like a plot of a movie. I was just wondering, because it sort of mirrors what Taiwan and some other island nations did.

I'm not much of an epidemiologist, but I'll take a crack at it, so first thing to kind of keep in mind is some of COVID's characteristics (I'm going to skip things that aren't 100% set it in stone), so:

1. Viral shedding - This basically refers to release of the virus replication products after replication has been completed, this is basically the period of contagiousness. This has been seen from anywhere to around 8 days to 37 days, with an average of 20 days.

2. Infectiousness - The virus is more likely to be transmitted earlier in the course of the disease (even before symptoms appear), and then the risk of transmission decreases greatly, transmission after 7 to 10 days of illness is actually pretty unlikely. One study found that transmission was most likely around 2.3 days before onset of symptoms, and that prolonged detection of the virus does not signify prolonged infectiousness.

3. Risk of transmission - Depends on exposure type, increases obviously with closeness and duration of the contact, especially in indoor settings, the most common settings for secondary infections are: household contacts, health care setting, and close quarter work (like cruise ships and what not).

So with that all said, let's say we give a month's notice, tell everybody to stock up, I think we'd need just a little more than two weeks strictly due to the viral shedding being such a broad range, maybe 3 weeks or so at minimum to feel better at the virus dying off, though that still also wouldn't be a 100% confidence interval. This is because let's say someone happened to get exposure and infected the day before this lockdown starts, they'll start showing symptoms by roughly the end of the week, the viral shedding lasts on average 20 days, but could last longer, they'd still be infectious. You'd hope that this person wouldn't immediately go outside after getting the illness, but the psychological effects of the lockdown have been absolutely beating people down. I think it'd reduce the hell out of it, and we'd be better off, but you also have to think of the sheer number of people that have tested positive now. Even with a month's notice, there's too many people that are in various stages of being contagious for it to work now, in the beginning when it was first breaking out, could have been a possibility I THINK, granted I don't know the logistics behind how you'd be able to go about it.

[Muskie in dayton]

Stupids in Sturgis:


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/st...&ocid=msedgdhp

Did you actually read this and apply some critical thought Bobbie? It cherry picked data to establish "increased cases" and extrapolated that into a future that ignores the reality of what actually happened (which was nothing). It's an obvious hit-job on the SD governor.

[Muskie in dayton]

But don't worry. It's almost over.
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/s...191789568?s=20
This is an amazing seasonal correlation with SARS.

[bobbiemcgee]

Did you actually read this and apply some critical thought Bobbie? It cherry picked data to establish "increased cases" and extrapolated that into a future that ignores the reality of what actually happened (which was nothing). It's an obvious hit-job on the SD governor.

70% in the survey say they were not surprised at the results. Quelle surpris.

[Muskie in dayton]

New York Times published an article illuminating the preponderance of false positive PCR tests. I don't subscribe, but know what it's saying from other reading on this issue. In short the sample needs to be replicated to have enough material to detect the viral RNA. Replication over 30x results in detection of RNA that is not there. CDC is recommending 40x, and most labs are testing in that range. This is why we see problems like this: https://247sports.com/college/arizon...ves-151154889/

How many of the "cases" are BS, and how many death resulting from those cases are BS? Another reason "the US is doing to bad". Test, test, test.

For those who do subscribe:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/h...s-testing.html