Covid-19

xu82 · 07-20-2020, 09:27 PM

Originally Posted by paulxu

So far it seems like kids are pretty resilient to the virus.
That of course is not the problem. If you put them in close quarters with non family, they are more likely to get it.
They will probably be OK. Not so much their parents/grandparents.
Tough sledding ahead.

Edit: promising news from UK on a potential vaccine with good early trial results.

I believe those current trials only go up to those 55 years old. The serious trouble lies with those above that age, but I’ll pray for the best! It’s certainly encouraging.

**D-West & PO-Z** · 07-20-2020, 09:57 PM

Originally Posted by Juice

What do you guys propose then if you don't want to send your kids back to school? or for those who can't stay home with their kids and have no childcare options? Because not sending kids to school will hurt kids in ways besides just being exposed to a virus with a .02 mortality rate. Kids are suffering in their learning/education, their physical health, and their mental health.

Most of the science shows that kids are unlikely to pass this to each other or to adults. Something like 30 kids at most have died from this in all of the United States.

Europe has opened schools. We cannot just lock down and hope this all passes us by. It's impossible.

I have no problem with kids going back to school with a good plan. I have a kid in pre school. Our other 3 kids are 1, our son needs to get out of the house and interact with other kids his age. I want him to be able to go back. We have had to be more cautious than most though since I have immune issues. So I hope his pre school, which is working on a plan and getting feedback from families, comes up with a good plan so we can send him.

The comments and the flippant attitude about kids getting it is what is frustrating to me. There are more than just the kids that are in schools. teachers, administrators, support staff etc. I wish we knew more about kids passing the virus along to others. I understand research is showing they dont get very sick typically when they are positive. Some research I think is showing they dont transmit the virus to others at the same rate adults do either. I hope that is true, that would be great.

If my son's pre school is open we will most likely send him. I just want to know there is a plan in place to do everything within the school's capabilities to keep him, his classmates, and their teachers etc safe and healthy.

Lloyd Braun · 07-20-2020, 10:58 PM

Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton

I don't know what the "Global Research" you refer to is, and I haven't heard of Off-Guardian where the article came from either. But if they're garbage like CNN from the other side, I'll take you word.

How about these accounts of false positives?
http://www.int-soc-clin-geriat.com/i...SARS-CoV-2.pdf
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...onavirus-tests (check the preprint linked in here as well).

The problem with the PCR "nearly all tests tested at 100% specificity" you cite in a separate post, is that these are done clinically, where the tests are administered, handled, run and reported flawlessly. What really happens in the real world is entirely different.

I know enough about analytical testing to know what is going on now is not ideal. Multiple tests from dozens of manufacturers, all rushed to the market without properly developed standard operating procedures for testing, quality control measures for both sample collection and sample analysis, and sloppy data management.

My point is that we are putting a lot of stake in the accuracy of these tests, much more than they deserve. We need to be careful.

The “Global Research” I referred to was your source for that article. The first link that you provided was on the website globalresearch.ca, which is a website basically that promotes conspiracy theories. Did you really link an article from a site that you have no knowledge of? Look, it happens in this day and age where there is false information everywhere. But at least own it, as hours earlier you directed criticism in the form of “be better, Bobby”. It turned into “hold my beer, Bobby.” CNN is biased/slanted whatever word you want to describe it, but it is news and not complete false info, or “garbage” as you may have called it. That same CNN article Bobby linked in the other thread was updated a few hours later to contain the correct information and clarified the timeline of the cases. I doubt you will see the “garbage” website you sourced do the same.

Regarding PCR testing, you will see false positives of course. But the point is you will always see far more false negatives in the real world population. If we have 3% false positives, that is not ideal by any stretch, but in real life we see ~30% false negatives, maybe more. The real life variables you speak of (human error, lab error, handling error, etc. is FAR more likely to cause a false negative. If the common goal is to eradicate this illness we need less false negatives. Worrying about the false positives seems like pushing an agenda that the disease isn’t widespread or serious. I could be wrong but that’s how I interpret the caution with false positives. Questioning accuracy is a good thing, I just think you are questioning the wrong side of the coin.

I read the zebra mussels article and I came away wondering why we are comparing PCR testing from large bodies of water to a swab in the nasopharyngeal cavity. I still hold the opinion that the false positives we see are those that are recovered with viral remnants in their bodies. Those count as false positives.

xu82 · 07-20-2020, 11:00 PM

Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z

I have no problem with kids going back to school with a good plan. I have a kid in pre school. Our other 3 kids are 1, our son needs to get out of the house and interact with other kids his age. I want him to be able to go back. We have had to be more cautious than most though since I have immune issues. So I hope his pre school, which is working on a plan and getting feedback from families, comes up with a good plan so we can send him.

The comments and the flippant attitude about kids getting it is what is frustrating to me. There are more than just the kids that are in schools. teachers, administrators, support staff etc. I wish we knew more about kids passing the virus along to others. I understand research is showing they dont get very sick typically when they are positive. Some research I think is showing they dont transmit the virus to others at the same rate adults do either. I hope that is true, that would be great.

If my son's pre school is open we will most likely send him. I just want to know there is a plan in place to do everything within the school's capabilities to keep him, his classmates, and their teachers etc safe and healthy.

It goes beyond the people physically present each day as you know. It goes to each person down the chain, and that is where the troubles can begin.

Public reps is apparently all I can give you, unfortunately.

**GoMuskies** · 07-20-2020, 11:17 PM

Honestly, I don't think there's a way to do in person school "safely" right now. You either decide kids going to school is important enough to take the risks that come with it, or you decide it is not. I don't think there's much of a middle ground. You can have masks and handwashing and some distancing, but at the end of the day it's mostly window dressing. We're willing to take the risk or we're not.

Lloyd Braun · 07-21-2020, 06:34 AM

I agree with a lot of what this article has to say. There are pockets of head scratchers in various parts of the world. As Go says it depends on what risks we are willing to take. My personal opinion is to have kids go back full time in areas that are not hot spots. I think Florida is nuts for considering it right now. The urban communities will not have the resources to safely open, yet if they don’t it seems to dig the community in a bigger hole, not to mention there is still a problem with many many homes not having an internet connection (also applies to rural communities to a lesser extent).

We have friends that have decided not to send their kids this year and pay one of the moms (a teacher) to teach the kids in these families, creating a small bubble. This screams elitist as I am aware this is not an option for many but perhaps other pockets like this will appear which does thin out the classrooms some creating more space. I do not envy the schools in generating plans, and I still stand by paid time off for all working Americans/parents when their kids get sick. Less chance if infecting grandma, teachers, staff, other kids.

**boozehound** · 07-21-2020, 08:41 AM

Originally Posted by GoMuskies

Honestly, I don't think there's a way to do in person school "safely" right now. You either decide kids going to school is important enough to take the risks that come with it, or you decide it is not. I don't think there's much of a middle ground. You can have masks and handwashing and some distancing, but at the end of the day it's mostly window dressing. We're willing to take the risk or we're not.

I wish that I didn't completely agree with this, but I think you are right. There are obviously different levels of risk depending on the incidence of COVID in a given community, but it won't be risk free.

Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

We have friends that have decided not to send their kids this year and pay one of the moms (a teacher) to teach the kids in these families, creating a small bubble. This screams elitist as I am aware this is not an option for many but perhaps other pockets like this will appear which does thin out the classrooms some creating more space. I do not envy the schools in generating plans, and I still stand by paid time off for all working Americans/parents when their kids get sick. Less chance if infecting grandma, teachers, staff, other kids.

This is one of the options we are considering. I agree that it does seem elitist. We don't feel great about that, but at the end of the day I guess I just don't care when it comes down to my kids' education and safety. I'm more worried about the socialization aspect, which is why we are probably leaning toward sending them back to school. It also helps that New Jersey is down to (I think) about 3 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents. If it stays that way it seems relatively safe to send them back. If we were in Florida or Texas I wouldn't be considering it.

Juice · 07-21-2020, 08:55 AM

https://www.dispatch.com/news/202007...s-back-on-rise

Early state and local data for 2020 shows drug deaths continue to climb and those on the front lines say the coronavirus outbreak, and the isolation, problems and disruptions that come with it, are likely fueling the problem.

“For people in recovery, a lot of people gain their strength from going to meetings, being with people in recovery, and it’s hard to get that now. People are isolated, quarantined. It’s tough,” said Cheri Walter, chief executive officer of the Ohio Association of County Behavioral Health Authorities.

“People in long-term recovery are relapsing,” she said. “We’re calling it deaths of despair. People just don’t know what to do, where to turn.”

People struggling with addiction often turn to alcohol or drugs because they are unable to deal with stress, Walter said.

Franklin County Coroner Dr. Anahi Ortiz has raised similar concerns.

“It’s really important if you are in recovery to talk to someone everyday,” Ortiz told The Dispatch in April when she reported a 14% spike in the county’s 2019 drug deaths.