Covid-19

[Lloyd Braun]

The prison ICU and hospitalization rate is unknown because it is new data. The course of illness is weeks, and I’m pretty sure that several people tested in the prison that tested positive did not have symptoms. Which again gives credence to a few things, most notably that the mortality rate is much lower that initially thought, and its transmissibility is possibly higher than initially thought. Prisons are close quarters but so is every household in America, and many many offices, restaurants etc.

[Mrs. Garrett]

I think I am going to trust the medical experts and the politicians taking the advice of the medical experts seriously.

It's frightening that there is not a unified response from the federal level and no plans to work on one. That's what happens when the President wants the title, but not the actual job responsibilities.

[XU '11]

I think I am going to trust the medical experts and the politicians taking the advice of the medical experts seriously.

It's frightening that there is not a unified response from the federal level and no plans to work on one. That's what happens when the President wants the title, but not the actual job responsibilities.

The White House presented a very detailed 3-Phase plan for opening back up. With benchmarks to advance to each phase and then what would be happening within that phase. I have no clue what you’re talking about.

[bobbiemcgee]

I think I am going to trust the medical experts and the politicians taking the advice of the medical experts seriously.

Trump 6:15pm: "Dr. Redfield was misquoted."
Dr. Redfield 6:17 pm: "I was not misquoted"

This is what we're dealing with.

[paulxu]

If one questions the value of a good testing situation, I would recommend this short read;

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coron...b6194c7be8ce80

Here's an important quote from that article:

“The idea of anybody getting [tested] easily the way people in other countries are doing it, we’re not set up for that,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a congressional committee last month. “That is a failing. Let’s admit it.”

More comprehensive testing early on in the pandemic might have allowed countries to avoid imposing paralyzing restrictions on social and economic activity. South Korea’s aggressive testing and contact-tracing program, for example, helped it avoid a nationwide lockdown.

[boozehound]

Ha! What is political about continually pointing out the flaws in the models that a Republican Governor is using to defend his power to lock down an entire state? That is what I've been doing.

And sure. Move the last few posts today of Lloyd's, yours, and mine all over to the politics thread. I'm fine with it.

I don't think any of them should be moved. I think being critical of the government's response to this is completely fair game, as long as it doesn't devolve into non-specific political arguing it should stay here. The government's response to this (both state and local) is a central part of the issue and directly related to the topic.

[Mrs. Garrett]

The White House presented a very detailed 3-Phase plan for opening back up. With benchmarks to advance to each phase and then what would be happening within that phase. I have no clue what you’re talking about.

This 3 phase plan is perfect:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO5sxLapAts

[noteggs]

It's a big deal, not so much medically-other than all the expense that hospitals went to to over-prepare- but the models have been the Bible that Acton and DeWine have been following and what they keep basing their decision on to keep the state shut down. And because they are crap, they have caused overreaction IMO. And DeWine/Acton STILL are using them despite their proven garbage.
See, again Lloyd. You are looking at this strictly from a medical point of view. That's your life. But the rest of us need an economy that works, and to continually base decisions that are killing people's livelihoods on trash data is bad, bad stuff. We're still stuck on this lockdown for at least another week and if Acton has her way, another number of months. It has to end. It is becoming financial suicide.

Finally. I'm sure you've seen "people die" from all sorts of diseases where they maybe shouldn't have- probably the flu or H1N1. But was the entire state and country locked down because of it? Are we just going to stop living life because there might be a disease out there that might kill us. Well, there have been those diseases already and there always will be. Of course, caution should be exercised, but man trying to play God and thinking he can just keep people from dying by wrapping the world in a bubble and tying them down is unrealistic and wrong.

Nice post and I’ll add my two cents. Questioning the model or data gathering is essential in medicine. Most people in the medical profession are taught (early) to question the data based off “clinical design, methodology, objective, results, conclusion and other.” Heck, just ask “GIMMFD” in medical school during his journal clubs. Is it a reputable study or something you take with a grain of salt. To your point, these are the key factors determining how we proceed and a ton of questions should be asked especially what’s happening today.

Changing the way the results were gathered from CDC kind of raised my antenna. A couple of examples:

The total deaths reported to the public do not only include deaths caused by COVID-19, but all deaths among patients who have tested positive for the virus regardless of causation. Other words, if someone tests positive for COVID-19 and days later dies for another reason, that death is counted. Please no DC conversations from others, just talking about the daily cases and death totals flashing on my TV screen.

The new CDC guidelines by expanding the death definition are now requiring all states to report presumptive positive and probable cases. So if a patient showed signs and symptoms of Covid a month ago and never tested, but died they can be reported as Covid related. Obviously Ohio has done this a week ago or so when we saw a few daily spike in deaths.

Not to say these changes are necessarily wrong and may help further research, but it does seem like the CDC is dumpster diving to find these cases.

[xu82]

Trump 6:15pm: "Dr. Redfield was misquoted."
Dr. Redfield 6:17 pm: "I was not misquoted"

This is what we're dealing with.

This is priceless.

We are dealing with the Gov of Georgia. He’s capable of contradicting himself. It’s a gift.

I’ve heard from an epidemiologist this herd immunity, if it arises for some period of time, only occurs when 85-90% of the population has been exposed. That may help, but it’s not the answer. Science will be the answer. I don’t think our Governor can spell science.

For the record, I don’t hate him opening up as much as I hate him opening the WORST possible businesses FIRST.

[D-West & PO-Z]

This is a great example of MSM sensationalism. I saw this play out a few days ago on one of the MSM news programs. The network teaser is something like, "People testing positive for COVID-19 a second time" is the network news teaser. Then when you get the full story, it's someone being tested periodically during recovery who test negative, maybe multiple times, then has another positive test. This is expected because:
1) The virus will remain in one's body at varying levels during recovery, and the test may or may not pick it up.
2) The test has a high false negative rate.

This is why a series of negative tests is required over a period of time to release someone from the hospital.

The news won't mention these facts, and even if they did, many people don't understand the uncertainty in any analytical testing method. Hence the misinformation spreads.

Hospitals are not requiring multiple negative tests for discharge. Not even one negative.

Also yes it could be a reactivation or resurgence of COVID-19 happening in people who seem to have "had it twice" and not truly be them contracting it again. But again at this point it is unknown. So this idea that we all just need to get it and we will be good continues to be false.