Covid-19

[xu82]

The examples in this are guesses.



Strong evidence there.

Again, with respect, there is one sure thing: THE VIRUS WAS CONTRACTED. It doesn’t matter much how it happened, though we need to learn more so we can combat it better.

I’m not on one side or the other. I think the right path is playing it safe, slowly up the middle. Open the safe retail, hold back on crowded happy hours, etc.

[Juice]

Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases.

Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....04.20053058v1

Speaking to press on Tuesday, he said most cases of coronavirus in Heinsberg originated from people being close together for a significant period of time, and not from touching surfaces with virus particles on them.

Streeck went on to say that though the virus could "live" on various surfaces for up to seven days, he believed there was little chance that someone could become infected via surfaces, contradicting both the Center for Disease Control and National Institute of Health guidelines.

Streeck posited that in order to contract the virus via a surface like a doorknob, "it would be necessary that someone coughs into their hand, immediately touches a doorknob, and then straight after that another person grasps the handle and goes on to touches their face," Streeck told reporters.

https://www.businessinsider.com/deat...average-2020-4

This paper from
@Taiwan_CDC
came out March 19 and has received no attention. It tracked 1000 contacts of 32 people with #COVID2019 and found NO - yes, ZERO - cases of transmission outside of households or families. In other words, it provides NO evidence social distancing helps.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/sta...15741776056323
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....18.20034561v1

[Juice]

Again, with respect, there is one sure thing: THE VIRUS WAS CONTRACTED. It doesn’t matter much how it happened, though we need to learn more so we can combat it better.

I’m not on one side or the other. I think the right path is playing it safe, slowly up the middle. Open the safe retail, hold back on crowded happy hours, etc.

And my earlier points are that is really really hard to contract the virus through the means he previously stated. Knowing how is a lot more important than if someone got it.

I don't necessarily disagree with you overall point at the end. I just think it should be left up to individuals or businesses.

[bobbiemcgee]

Strong evidence there.

Roll the dice for yourself. Maybe go out and sniff some nursing homes. I'm staying put.

[xu82]

And my earlier points are that is really really hard to contract the virus through the means he previously stated. Knowing how is a lot more important than if someone got it.

I don't necessarily disagree with you overall point at the end. I just think it should be left up to individuals or businesses.

It is NOT hard to contract, that’s pretty much a fact. They say it’s one of the most transmissible viruses ever. But is it the end of the world as we know it as some paint it? I doubt that.

I trust “restaurants” far more than “bars”. Now, how do you draw that line? I’m not really sure. Limiting capacity? Sit down service only? There are ways, and smart people need to figure out how to get it back going again, especially in areas where it’s not a huge challenge. NYC is it’s own animal, for a variety of reasons. Des Moines should not be shut down over that unless they have a problem.

The complicated part here is it’s a blend of politics and common sense. Not a good match.

[xu82]

Roll the dice for yourself. Maybe go out and sniff some nursing homes. I'm staying put.

Once the stay is lifted, I will be very cautious about where I venture and for what reason. I tend to have lunch late, 2-3:30pm. I’ll miss the lunch crowd and be gone before happy hour. I won’t do that day one, or even week one. Things need to SLOWLY start getting back to normal. Gradually, and monitor how things go. That’s just common sense. If it’s not a MUST, hold off a while. Be responsible.

One thing I will do is tip WAY high. These poor people can use some generosity. I got my first restaurant food/takeout in about 5 weeks today. It used to be a daily thing for lunch. It wasn’t until I picked up and left that I realized they just added a 15% tip when I called in. Next time (maybe tomorrow?) I will tell them to make it more like 100%. I’ve saved a small fortune over the last month or two, but a lot of that has come out of their pockets. These people have kids, and bills to pay, rent to make. Time for all of us to catch up a bit.

[paulxu]

A combination of these two websites, although if you look at the footnotes in the last column you can get to the Ohio site.
However, you have to track this every day to get the daily numbers because they don’t give it day by day. Probably on purpose because it makes their models look bad. And if the numbers of cases has been so high in the last week, where are the hospitalizations (that you can’t fake) or ICU admits?

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/por.../covid-19/home

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Thanks.

[paulxu]

And if the numbers of cases has been so high in the last week, where are the hospitalizations (that you can’t fake) or ICU admits?

There may be a lag between being tested positive and then symptoms requiring hospitalization showing up.

At any rate, from this site that usually tracks legal stuff, today was an interesting article on the prisons in Ohio being test cases for enclosed work spaces.

https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/04/2...marion-prison/

[Masterofreality]

There may be a lag between being tested positive and then symptoms requiring hospitalization showing up.

At any rate, from this site that usually tracks legal stuff, today was an interesting article on the prisons in Ohio being test cases for enclosed work spaces.

https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/04/2...marion-prison/

But how long a lag Paul? Ever since they expanded the definition of "cases" for a week the reported numbers have doubled and tripled but the hospitalizations keep declining. I have to be skeptical.

[paulxu]

But how long a lag Paul? Ever since they expanded the definition of "cases" for a week the reported numbers have doubled and tripled but the hospitalizations keep declining. I have to be skeptical.

Boy, that's a good question. I obviously have no answer.
The key still seems to me to be the availability of good testing. Where the deaths have been low, it seems countries not only tested, but tracked exposures and made an effort to isolate the positives to keep the spread down.
We are probably past that point now. Too much spread to effectively track.
The Ohio prison test may be good examples (based on their outcome) of what might happen when we open up, and a whole bunch of people go back to work in close proximity...like a large office building.