Covid-19

[D-West & PO-Z]

Brew, way too much money to be lost if the games aren't played. I see MLB and NBA starting back up sometime in May. There will be restrictions on who can attend games and you may even have to sign a waiver of some sort. But, the games will go on as they should. Players will be tested regularly. Fans wont be allowed within 10-15 feet of the courts/fields etc. They want and need the TV revenue. So, attendance will be sparse initially.........

What in the world makes you think any sports will return in May?

Even Clay Travis was celebrating "sports starting to roar back" but he was talking about July.

[xavierj]

I really hope you're right. I also think the possibility of college sports not happening at all in 2020-2021 is being talked about amongst presidents and conference commissioners a little more than people realize, and that scares the hell out of me. I never thought they'd cancel the basketball tournament. I thought they might postpone it, close it to the public, rework the rules of the bracket to make it so teams didn't have to travel, etc, but I never thought they'd just cancel it because of all the money from the TV contracts. They did. I'm inclined to think that if they'll cancel that, they'll cancel anything.

This is sad and will be devastating to non power schools. The loss of revenue will be tough to overcome for a lot of football programs. These programs still are obligated to pay scholarships for tuition, room and board and won't have any revenue coming in. Old Dominion already started cutting sports and if there is no football season in the fall, sports will be getting cut at a lot of universities I am afraid. I guess the good thing for Xavier is that they don't have football to rely on or worry about.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/...ct-coronavirus

[xuwillie]

It is sad and no easy solution. Would you rather lose millions of lives or have 50 million unemployed which would then cause lost lives???

[Masterofreality]

Today's Model Projection of new Cases per Day: 1,600
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 371 Including 50 “assumed/probable
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 427 on 4/4/20. (Only 2 other days over 400- 4/6 with 407 and 4/3 with 410)
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 2,033 (up 85 from yesterday) since reporting began a month ago
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 613 since reporting began a month ago (up 18 from yesterday)
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds : 2,500

Day 250,000,000,000,000 . No hospitalization or ICU overrun. Meanwhile economic death continues. #GroundhogDay

[Masterofreality]

Since hospitalizations and ICU admits are rising in Ohio, I am assuming you all haven't peaked yet.

They aren’t. Look at the above.

[noteggs]

If someone surveyed me a month ago and ask me how many times a day does my face itch? I probably would’ve guessed once or twice vs 1000 times it actually does.

[xu82]

If someone surveyed me a month ago and ask me how many times a day does my face itch? I probably would’ve guessed once or twice vs 1000 times it actually does.

It makes me wonder how I EVER get ANYTHING done! It seems ALL I do is touch my face!

[paulxu]

They aren’t. Look at the above.

Down today, but up yesterday. So maybe that was the peak?

[Muskie in dayton]

Sweden will soon be providing an answer about the cost/benefit of social distancing. They have maintained a very non-aggressive position, only closing high schools and limiting gatherings of over 50. I decided to check into how things were going for them. Here are the Sweden deaths since April 1:

4/1/2020: 59

4/2/2020: 69

4/3/2020: 50

4/4/2020: 15

4/5/2020: 28

4/6/2020: 76

4/7/2020: 114

4/8/2020: 96

4/9/2020: 106

4/10/2020: 77

4/11/2020: 17

4/12/2020: 12

4/13/2020: 20

There were a few bad days, but they have clearly fallen off the last 4 days.

I then started wondering what the IMHE model predicted (version updated April 6 – the data I had downloaded) about Sweden's death rate, compared to actual. With fear of channeling MOR, below are the results vs the model (Modeled | Actual):

4/6/2020: 84 | 76
4/7/2020: 67 |114
4/8/2020: 71 | 96
4/9/2020: 75 | 106
4/10/2020: 82 |77
4/11/2020: 83 |17
4/12/2020: 87 |12
4/13/2020: 97 | 20
IMHE just updated the model again using actual data through 4/12. Despite the actual results, the modeled deaths have increased, showing the country is on a huge spike, with deaths peaking in early May at over 500/day (https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden): 4/13/2020: 150 4/14/2020: 142 4/15/2020: 150 4/16/2020: 159 4/17/2020: 169 4/18/2020: 179 4/19/2020: 191 4/20/2020: 204 4/21/2020: 218 4/22/2020: 234 4/23/2020: 251 4/24/2020: 269 4/25/2020: 289 4/26/2020: 310 4/27/2020: 332 4/28/2020: 355 4/29/2020: 379 4/30/2020: 404 5/1/2020: 429 5/2/2020: 453 5/3/2020: 478 5/4/2020: 501 5/5/2020: 523 5/6/2020: 544 5/7/2020: 557 5/8/2020: 560 According to this model, Sweden should already be over their medical capacity. Some quick Google searches did not reveal any news that is the case. Also per the model, they will be in dire straits, requiring over 50-times the number of ICU beds needed. Time will tell…

[Masterofreality]

Down today, but up yesterday. So maybe that was the peak?

427 cases on 4/4. That is in my post. That was before they started adjusting the numbers adding in “assumed” cases.
That was over a week ago in Ohio. That seems to be the “peak” to me?

Hospitalizations and ICU’s have been in a fairly tight range for quite a while. Maybe some minor fluctuations but the numbers were way down today.