Covid-19

[bjf123]

A big problem with this is everyone is expecting the models to be extremely accurate. Just look at how often the weather forecasts are way off. They’re based on the data available at the time, but shit happens and sometimes they’re just flat wrong.

The more data, the better the modeling. Also, I think the people doing the modeling were intentionally overstating the risk (which the media loves). They’d rather have to come back with lower fatality rates than to admit they were way off and that a lot more people than originally thought are going to die.


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[Muskie in dayton]

Thanks Fellah. I agree with everything. The models are proven to be wrong but the outcomes are wonderful. I have agreed with DeWines moves to date but this thing is now dissipating as per real numbers and no medical facilities in the state are being overwhelmed.
There needs to be movement to get life back on track.

I agree with all of this, and glad you agree with DeWine’s moves. I expect the movement will come from DeWine himself very soon. Start with getting “non-essential” businesses reopened. Then restaurants once they Are setup to keep patrons from being too close and frequent cleaning of common areas. Monitor numbers for a couple weeks and go from there. It is time.

[Masterofreality]

Nice try, but I never said the models were great/accurate, I was just responding to your ridiculous statement that “there is zero underreporting in Ohio.” Which there clearly is. Which has nothing to do with hospitalizations or model accuracy. Simple statement that was wrong and you are the one shifting goal posts.

I’ve moved nothing. You also have shown no tangible proof that there are underreported numbers. None- especially on Hospitalizations. Common Sense doesn’t cut it. Go back to post 888 on this thread where you challenged me and then post 943. I have been totally consistent in my initial statement arguing that the models have been wrong, wrong and wrong- and that the actions that have been taken are based upon faulty models. I also have said numerous times that I have been supportive of the actions taken so far, but I will say this- That DeWine extending this shutdown to May 1 is an arbitrary overreach and I believe based upon the continual inaccurate model projections. I also said that there was no underreporting in Ohio and what I was primarily referring to was the real key number HOSPITALIZATIONS (although I should have made that more clear). I have since stated that I really don’t give a crap about number of cases, except to prove that the models were wrong. The Hospitalizations are the key stat because early on the justification for these severe shutdowns were to keep the medical facilities from being “overrun”. They are not anywhere close to being overrun in Ohio, the numbers are starting to decline and yet we’re still under the thumb until 5/1. THAT’S THREE MORE WEEKS!!
This is why I post the daily numbers. I’m now declaring that DeWine has to start loosening the reins, and not 3 weeks from now.
Suggestion? Reopen the restaurants with walk-in traffic with masks required? Reopen Hair salons with masks required? Maybe require masks everywhere, for now, but this economy crushing has got to stop when the real numbers aren’t supporting the action.

[Lloyd Braun]

Paul posted (#992 since we are now referencing posts) an article on how deaths are likely being underreported because people are arriving DOA. The very next post (993) you said “There is zero under reporting in Ohio”. I guess I should have known you were referring to hospitalizations? Whatever. We are not really disagreeing on much here other than I am not quite ready to release the hounds, and would feel better in 2-3 weeks to do so.

[Juice]

A big problem with this is everyone is expecting the models to be extremely accurate. Just look at how often the weather forecasts are way off. They’re based on the data available at the time, but shit happens and sometimes they’re just flat wrong.

The more data, the better the modeling. Also, I think the people doing the modeling were intentionally overstating the risk (which the media loves). They’d rather have to come back with lower fatality rates than to admit they were way off and that a lot more people than originally thought are going to die.


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They just didn't overstate the risk, they massively overstated the risk which scared governors, mayors, and people into hysterics that has resulted in millions losing their jobs and health insurance. Now hospitals are closing and cutting workers because of their mistakes. There are ways to be conservative and careful and not blow up an economy. This will take years to come back from because people got really, really scared because they didn't have the balls to answer to a media that wanted this to be bad.

[XU '11]

Suggestion? Reopen the restaurants with walk-in traffic with masks required?

How do you eat at a restaurant with a mask on?

[bobbiemcgee]

[Masterofreality]

Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:

Today's Model Projection of new Cases per Day: 1,600
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 354 Including 44 “assumed”.
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 427 on 4/4/20. (Only 2 other days over 400- 4/6 with 407 and 4/3 with 410)
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 1,948 (up 193 from yesterday) since reporting began a month ago
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 595 since reporting began a month ago (47 new)
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds: 2,500

No comment other than the numbers remain minimal compared to the models, are not exponentially increasing even though the state has now started including “assumed” cases as real cases, and no hospitals are being overrun. (Shrugs Shoulders)
3 more lockdown weeks of this, huh??

[Masterofreality]

Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:

Today's Model Projection of new Cases per Day: 1,600
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 354 Including 44 “assumed”.
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 427 on 4/4/20. (Only 2 other days over 400- 4/6 with 407 and 4/3 with 410)
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 1,948 (up 193 from yesterday) since reporting began a month ago
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 595 since reporting began a month ago (47 new)
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds: 2,500

No comment other than the numbers remain minimal compared to the models, are not exponentially increasing even though the state has now started including “assumed” cases as real cases, and no hospitals are being overrun. (Shrugs Shoulders)
3 more lockdown weeks of this, huh??

[paulxu]

Since hospitalizations and ICU admits are rising in Ohio, I am assuming you all haven't peaked yet.