Covid-19

[Masterofreality]

Meanwhile we are basing decisions on faulty models. Whatever.

[paulxu]

I wonder how much under-reporting occurs just because of circumstances like these:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckra...d-ravages-city

[Masterofreality]

There is zero underreporting in Ohio

[Lloyd Braun]

I get your point on that’s a lot deaths because it is. Also, I’m not trying to compare the death rates of viruses, but on how we count them. Not all deaths during flu season we attribute it to the flu even though present upon death (hence the extreme broad range reported).

On the other hand, if a patient dies with covid and who might be dying of CHF (among many reason) we’re counting it as a covid death. I mean one can make a strong case that heart failure was the leading cause of death. Not sure which way is correct or accurate.

But using the latter rationale, politicians will only use it to justify their actions (IMHO). Unfortunately that might paint a different picture on what we should do moving forward. Regardless, this virus seems to be a bad dude.

Not saying you are wrong, there is no way to quantify exactly the effect of each virus, BUT if I may present a counter point: when filling out a death certificate (in Ohio and most states) there are several lines we have to fill out in addition to cause of death. The cause of death is never “INFLUENZA” or “COVID-19”. It is whatever the immediate cause of death is (cardiopulmonary arrest, etc). The next couple lines after cause of death are the conditions that complicated disease state such as “influenza” or “COVID-19”, or whatever infection/condition it may be. (Interesting tidbit: There is also a line that asks if tobacco use contributed to this persons death) So the CHF patient you mention may have both CHF and COVID on the death certificate. That said it is highly unlikely that we are counting a higher percentage of COVID deaths than Flu deaths, especially without widespread COVID testing from day 1 because most people admitted for presumed flu are tested.
We may actually see an increase in flu deaths this year. Not because the flu was worse but because the protocol was to test for flu before corona, so more flu tests were done this year compared to last.

[Lloyd Braun]

There is zero underreporting in Ohio

Of death or cases? Both are underreported but cases far exceed underreported deaths.

[Masterofreality]

Of death or cases? Both are underreported but cases far exceed underreported deaths.

How so, and justify your statement please.

[Lloyd Braun]

How so, and justify your statement please.

Well it is pretty widespread knowledge and common sense that cases are underreported. The governor says so every single day at 2pm. There are countless of cases not tested in mostly healthy individuals that stay home until they are better. Or even asymptomatic. That’s a good thing that supports your stance that we are overreacting a bit. Lowers the mortality rate when you increase the denominator.

Similarly cases of death are underrepresented because there are still hospitals not in the major cities that were not able to or not aware to test early. Further, there is evidence that I believe Dr Crawford cited somewhere in this thread that COVID infections contribute to other potential causes of death such as cardiac arrest. It is unlikely to test someone that arrives DOA from cardiac arrest. Tests are being saved for the living. Again this is not as nearly high a number as the underreported cases.

Edit: just read all of the article Paul linked which again references sudden cardiac death. That is not something unique to NYC.

[X-man]

there is zero underreporting in ohio

wtf?

[Xville]

I think when we look back at this, shutting down the country is going to be worse than the virus itself. The economy is going to be in shambles for a long time, and there wi be plenty of businesses that never open back up...add to that the amount of anxiety and stress that people are under which compromises immune systems, and in turn will cause disease.

I swear if I hear "flatten the curve" or "social distance" or any of the other stupid jargon that has come out of this ever again, I'm gonna effing lose it.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think when we look back at this, shutting down the country is going to be worse than the virus itself. The economy is going to be in shambles for a long time, and there wi be plenty of businesses that never open back up...add to that the amount of anxiety and stress that people are under which compromises immune systems, and in turn will cause disease.

I swear if I hear "flatten the curve" or "social distance" or any of the other stupid jargon that has come out of this ever again, I'm gonna effing lose it.

I think you're going to hear about social distancing for a long time after this. There are going to be things that never go back to normal in some respects I think. Or at least for a long while.