Covid-19

[Masterofreality]

And in Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:

Today's Model Projection of new Cases per Day: 1,600
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 364 (down from prior day 366)
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 427 on 4/4/20. (Only 2 other days over 400- 4/6 with 407 and 4/3 with 410)
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 1,612 since reporting began a month ago
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 497 since reporting began a month ago
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds: 2,500

Again, these numbers are ridiculously lower than the "models". We're supposed to peak on 4/19. But it's been almost a week since the 427 number was hit and we're pretty consistently in the 350-400 range at the highest. I'm not saying that 427 is the absolute peak, but where is the crushing influx? And now we've been separated for weeks.
Our economy and small businesses/restaurants are getting killed. When are these numbers going to match up? And we're supposed to deal with these closures for another 3 weeks? People, I submit we are being hoo dooed into economic ruin, by "models". Testing or no testing people are not flocking to the hospitals or the ICU', and they haven't been. Look, every life is precious, but are we going to act like this vs every infectious disease that we deal with from now on?

Please tell me when the numbers will validate?

[paulxu]

MOR, I don't follow the specifics of Ohio and the numbers you note.

But it's true that some hospitals in NY are getting overrun.
NYC is of course very dense, and I suspect harder to do the social distancing thing.

But isn't it possible that the social distancing practiced in Ohio has actually worked to keep the numbers under projections?
Just a thought.

[GoMuskies]

Two of my kids got strep this week. Never more pleased to hear about positive strep diagnoses!

[xu82]

Two of my kids got strep this week. Never more pleased to hear about positive strep diagnoses!

YAY! Congrats on the strep throat!

(Words that have never been typed before.)

[Masterofreality]

MOR, I don't follow the specifics of Ohio and the numbers you note.

But it's true that some hospitals in NY are getting overrun.
NYC is of course very dense, and I suspect harder to do the social distancing thing.

But isn't it possible that the social distancing practiced in Ohio has actually worked to keep the numbers under projections?
Just a thought.

Amy Acton on 3/29/2020:
"The Model shows a peak New Cases per day of 10,000 with a projected peak date of mid to late April."

10,000 projected vs an actual Peak (so far) of 427? Uh, that's a screw up. Big time. Social "distancing" isn't creating that.

https://www.cleveland.com/coronaviru...ml#incart_push

[xavierj]

Amy Acton on 3/29/2020:
"The Model shows a peak New Cases per day of 10,000 with a projected peak date of mid to late April."

10,000 projected vs an actual Peak (so far) of 427? Uh, that's a screw up. Big time. Social "distancing" isn't creating that.

https://www.cleveland.com/coronaviru...ml#incart_push

Especially when not everyone is social distancing...

https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2...unds&auto=webp

[Lloyd Braun]

Two of my kids got strep this week. Never more pleased to hear about positive strep diagnoses!

If you don’t mind me asking: Where’d they pick up strep?

[Lloyd Braun]

Also... can’t believe this thread is a month old.... it’s actually a nice little running timeline of its social impact.

[GoMuskies]

If you don’t mind me asking: Where’d they pick up strep?

Likely from the neighbors. We haven't social distanced from EVERYONE.

[Lloyd Braun]

Likely from the neighbors. We haven't social distanced from EVERYONE.

I actually think closing schools has been the most impactful thing to flatten the curve. Kids are dirty hosts. Since both me and my wife are in healthcare I have told our kids they aren’t allowed to spread our germs to other kids.