I don't think that's a stupid question at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by chico
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I don't think that's a stupid question at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by chico
Fair question. I would think it would be certainly not be till I was diagnosed. And then only if it was a last chance type of thing. Short of that, there seem to be indications it causes a lot of difficulty in some people. Tough times.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoMuskies
Chris Cuomo Update: Analyzing a clear chest X-RayQuote:
Originally Posted by boozehound
This is definitely getting a little dramatic. How much longer before CNN just changes their name to "Cuomo News Network"? For those who don't want to click the link, it is a 3 minute conversation between Chris Cuomo and Sanjay Gupta about Chris's chest X-Ray that shows no Pneumonia.
I don't know why I'm so amused by this.
No this is a good question, there's been small claims on Reddit in the medicine community about what their patients are doing, but it's an incredibly small sample size, and nothing is published on it that I know about (I check for new publications every night throughout medical journals). I think there's too many variable factors to be able to say whether it's helpful or hurtful at the moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by chico
The use hydroxychloroquine in this situation is going to be an incredibly fascinating case study for years to come. Not only for the Coronavirus, but how the medical community may or may not utilize unapproved potential life saving medicines and how the fda/government will change their current rules and regulations for similar situations.Quote:
Originally Posted by GIMMFD
I was thinking the exact same thing earlier honestly, there's going to be a lot of hindsight analysis going on, I'm really interested into seeing the changes that unfold after this. There's going to be a lot systemic changes needing to occur in healthcare, there's a strong voice for unionization for residents, what we can do to speed up clinical trials, etc. I'm glad people are talking about how to improve things right now, because I definitely do think there needs to be some adjustments to the way healthcare is set up. I just wish it wasn't at the cost of thousands of lives unfortunately.Quote:
Originally Posted by noteggs
Pharmacies will dispense it for treatment of coronavirus in Ohio for 14 days. But they are still restricting the prescriptions as several doctors and dentists (!?) have prescribed it for their families to stockpile. As a general rule of thumb the state medical and pharmacy boards still decide what is appropriate to prescribe and what isn’t. Which is a good thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by noteggs
Thanks - this makes a lot of sense. I tend to be wary when someone claims to have a silver bullet.Quote:
Originally Posted by GIMMFD
No doubt, it’s just not that simple. I do find it interesting how many interviews I’ve seen with doctors who either say they would take it, have taken it or prescribed it for family members with the virus. They all report good outcomes, but of course don’t know if it can be attributed to the drugs or if things just ran their course.Quote:
Originally Posted by chico
I agree - it's definitely not. I understand completely the desire of those who want a quick "cure" but for better or worse we need to have patience and make sure any drug or treatment has been tested.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
If I had the virus and was sinking fast, I’d definitely give hydrochloroquine a shot. I saw an interview with a rheumatologist today who says he’s been prescribing it and it’s predecessor for decades with no terrible consequences. I’ve read about some negative side effects, but desperate times....Quote:
Originally Posted by chico
Getting the antibody testing ramped up seems to be HUGE in my mind. I’m not playing doctor on a keyboard, I just know that from what I’ve read and heard so far, I’d want the meds. I remember those old asthma commercials.....”when you can’t breathe, nothing else matters.”
Negative side effects? Just listen to any pharmaceutical TV ad. The possible side effects from those drugs are ridiculous.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
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Very good thing, leads to checks and balances which prevents blatant misuse for the most part.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
The problem is that it prolongs the QT interval, and Azithromycin which they combine it with for it's great anti-inflammatory properties also prolongs the QT interval. Now what the hell is that? So, first you gotta know about EKG's, so here's a labelled one (source: SinusRhythmLabels ), now let me break this down P = atrial depolarization (upper two chambers of your heart basically getting charged, and ready to contract), PR segment = atrial contraction (where they dump the blood into your ventricles), QRS complex = ventricular depolarization (bottom two chambers getting charged, ready to contract), ST segment = ventricular contraction (heart pumps the blood out into your body and through the lungs), T = ventricular repolarization (ventricles are in a "stunned" state, they can't contract again, and kind of reset). QT interval refers to the time it takes for everything to happen through the ventricle. Prolonging this period has to do with messing with potassium levels, and it ends up causing your heart not to beat in the proper response, this unsynchronized heart beat ends up leading to Torsades de Pointes, which looks like this: Torsades, as you can see, not a good time to have that type of heart electrical activity. I hope that all made sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by xu82
Of course NONE of that made sense to me. I’m not a doctor. BUT, I have seen interviews with at least a half dozen doctors who took it themselves and prescribed it for family members when they tested positive. None have reported negative outcomes. I have read elsewhere of racing heart rates, etc, but even those people turned out fine. I’m sure in some cases it does not.Quote:
Originally Posted by GIMMFD
My point is, if I’m looking at a serious illness that could kill me, I’m not waiting for a 12 month clinical study to confirm it’s safe if I’ll be dead in a days.
Amy Acton on March 31- per “Models”. “
“The research has a prediction of 10,000 news cases a day in Ohio, by late April.”
Actual new Ohio Cases today - 332.
Also March 31- “The peak of case projection has moved from May to mid to late April”
Total Ohio Hospitalizations for the period 3/15- current: 1,354. Welp. Testing or no, the hospitals aren’t “flooded”.
Somethin’ ain’t adding up.
You would dare question the supreme leader Dr. Amy Acton?Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
It's almost like the lockdown is working...
But the only thing really locked down is a lot of business. People are still out shopping and taking vacations and the government is pretty much footing the bill. It’s not like everyone is actually locking themselves in their houses. Of course people are going to say it’s working but there isn’t any proof that people are really not out moving around. At least I see a ton of people out and about everyday. My business is still open and we have a lot of customers. No one who works for me has gotten sick either, at least that we are aware of. If anything good comes out of this, is maybe people will continue to be clean and wash their hands like they should be doing, and if you are sick, stay home.Quote:
Originally Posted by smileyy
If you are familiar with Atlanta, where we live, all you have to do is drive to the grocery store and you will realize an amazing difference. If traffic was always like this, I wouldn’t hate Atlanta so much! The difference is ENORMOUS!Quote:
Originally Posted by xavierj
I don’t pretend to know the perfect way to balance health and the economy. People are going to die from this virus. People will also suffer if we fall into a depression. This sucks.....
So is she part of a big conspiracy? Incompetent? What do YOU think is going on here?Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterofreality
Incompetent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
The new peak date is today (April 8) which is about 3-4 weeks off from her original prediction of early May.
Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...f-america/ohioQuote:
The model estimates the dates at which hospital resources like beds and ventilators will be most needed, which it says is tomorrow (April 8). The model says Ohio has 14,290 available beds, and as of tomorrow will be using only 1,372 beds.
There are 1,238 ICU beds in Ohio, and as of tomorrow, only 262 will be needed. Only 223 invasive ventilators will be necessary tomorrow.
544 projected deaths by August 4.
Which model is that? The IMHE model is garbage.
My understanding and I'm open to being corrected is that Ohio hasn't been forthcoming on who is generating their models or which one they're using. So what we have here is simply the numbers/data cited by Dewine and Acton in their never ending press conferences.Quote:
Originally Posted by smileyy
Perhaps today is peak, but it seems that it will be later based on most other projections, as well as what we are seeing in the hospitals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Juice
I personally do not think they are incompetent, I believe DeWine and Acton have saved a LOT of lives along with demonstrating true leadership and decisiveness. The curve is flattening and we have people complaining about how this was not as deadly as we were told it was going to be without acting on it. Truly unbelievable.
What model do you recommend?Quote:
Originally Posted by smileyy
Modes are only as good as the quantity and quality of data available and used to support their construction. COVID-19 data are not robust due to the novelty of the disease. The first generation of models is then compared to and updated using actual data. Each iteration of the model is closer to reality.
The quantity of data the IMHE used is as great as possible, and assumptions used are in line with published data and values. It was also just updated based on actual data from social distancing, which is having a profound effect than expected.
No matter what precautions were taken, it was a no-win situation. If the models were correct, and we didn’t take the measures we did, we didn’t do enough. If the results fall short of predictions, and we took extreme measures, we did too much.
Like everything in life, you can’t make everybody happy. I’m hopeful the models are wrong, and we can get back to life sooner rather than later.
All of the mitigation put into place by her counseling and advise has obviously saved countless lives in Ohio. Yet you want her to get a model perfect in a completely novel scenario.Quote:
Originally Posted by Juice
C'mon man. Would you have rather her been wrong in the other direction?
I like this one....Quote:
Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton
https://www.industryfreak.com/wp-con...i-674x1024.jpg
LOL. That model needs no refinement!Quote:
Originally Posted by nuts4xu
I realized what a geek I am when the word “model” first conjures up images of data, statistics, graphs, and predictions.
I do not think those curves have been flattenedQuote:
Originally Posted by nuts4xu
You don’t know that what she has done have saved lives. No one does. Most of the models assumed full social distancing and lockdown. That clearly didn’t happen and we still beat the models.Quote:
Originally Posted by drudy23
So if we were just living our normal everyday lives the past month, we would have been fine?Quote:
Originally Posted by Juice
Ohio was one of the earliest states to start mitigation, thus the resulting curve. So some of the models have prolonged this - isn't that better than a New York situation?
Not sure how you can question Ohio's response to this - it's been well ahead of the curve, which has been very beneficial, from a health perspective, to its citizens.
I'm with you. Rather than taking the position that (1) the science is junk, or (2) there is a government conspiracy to terrify people needlessly, or (3) all government officials warning us about the dangers are grossly incompetent, because our experience is less horrible than predicted, I suspect that the reason our experience is less horrible is in fact a direct consequence of those warnings. We responded by changing our behavior, and that mitigated the dire consequences predicted by the models. No one is arguing that such models are precise in forecasting outcomes, but I believe that had we not changed our behavior, those predictions would be much closer to the reality in those circumstances.Quote:
Originally Posted by drudy23
DeWine and Acton have done the state a great service, IMHO.
What should we make of Sweden, where nothing was done and their death rate is 59 per million, as opposed to Switzerland where deaths are 94 per million with mitigation in place ?
Switzerland’s outbreak began before Sweden’s and over the last week Sweden’s death rate has grown faster than Switzerland’s. Check it outQuote:
Originally Posted by JTG
Also I would not be surprised if Sweden starts to implement tighter measures this week.
But Switzerland’s hospitalizations are higher so ��*♂️.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
You know what Sweden also won’t be dealing with? A crippling depression that Ohio hasn’t even begun to deal with the repercussions that entails.
Did you look at the graph? Check on Sweden in 1-2 weeks and see what it looks like. And again, Sweden is likely to implement measures of closing businesses so it will be a moot point once that happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by Juice
Based on what their governmental leaders are saying, I've seen nothing to indicate that they will tighten things up. If you seen something different saying they're going to change course, please send it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun
I found this fascinating, especially the discussion with the WebMd guy.
Apparently the death percentage of people who go on ventilators is high. Maybe they need to change the protocol?
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...acute-covid-19