Covid-19

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Originally Posted by Juice

I think he got scared into shutting things down. Now that the facts are out, he is opening things earlier. He is asking for sporting events to take place in his state. Beaches are opening again after a few weeks while Cuomo and Governor Blackface/KKK Hood extend their lock downs.

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That's the case and the entire story everywhere. Why the need to point fingers and place blame? No one knew what this was going to look like a month ago.

I'm sure you'll all write this off as liberal bullshit or whatever. I'm from New Rochelle, NY. Ground zero of this things presence in America along with Washington State. I don't live there now but my childhood home, school, church, etc was in the original containment zone. I have family there still. There were and still are stories of healthy 20 year olds dying from this. You can call that anecdotal one-offs or narratives, but you're wrong. It is fear and unknown. You could go to a store and it could cause your death. No one anywhere would react differently if it was rapidly evolving in their community. Especially if it was the first explosion of this in the country. No one there is wishing ill will on red America or trying to dictate how you run your lives. There are tons of impoverished and working people there being crushed financially by this too.

Your area's reaction to what has happened is on you and your elected officials. Never let a good crisis go to waste. You're attacking people and organizations who were trying to warn others about this and prevent mass death because of politics.

Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:

Today's Model Projection of new Cases per Day: 1,600 (Projected peak day Today at 1,607 per model)
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 1380(!!!) Only 56 Probable/Assumed cases today. Result of better testing (?) but look at Hospitalizations/ICUs.
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 1380 today with 56 probable/assumed
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 2,565 (up only 46 from yesterday) since reporting began over a month ago
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 765 since reporting began a month ago (up only 5 from yesterday)
New Deaths today: 20 to 471 total.
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds:2500
Ohio Population; 11.7 million

Ok, I'm calling Boolsheet on this. Allegedly 1380 new cases reported, but less Hospitalizations and ICU admits than almost any other day? Only 46 new hospitalizations, and only 5 new ICU admits?? WTF is this? Is the state really just jacking up case numbers to make their valued models look better? I would have guessed that if the numbers from yesterday of 1,115 new cases was correct that, if not yesterday, but TODAY the hospitalization numbers would have drastically increased. I'm increasingly skeptical.

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Originally Posted by xu82

My wife is working from home and most of her day she’s on various conference calls largely consisting of people in NYC. The NYC folks say the ambulance sirens they keep hearing are FAR beyond what is normal, but it’s the “new normal”. All day long. Those with second homes ran away weeks ago.

I don’t think I could ever live a place like NYC with all the vertical living and tight quarters and constantly sharing elevators. My wife’s boss told her during the interview that she wanted her team in NYC, and my wife thanked her for her time. An exception was made. There are very few cities that come close to cramming so many people in so little space. I know there are plenty of HUGE cities, but I’m not surprised that it would grow like wild fire in that setting.

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It's all about the subways- oh, and DeBlase' s attitude early on, when he was telling people to "just live your lives" and "I'm going to the gym"- on March 13.

And whoever the idiot is that runs the subway schedules there cut down the number of routes when this started. That made more people have to cram into the remaining trains that were running rather than people being allowed to spread it out.

GREAT JOB NEW YORK!!

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Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee

It's an airborne virus. You can walk into a hallway and get it from someone who walked thru 3 hours before. You can get it from someone just talking or breathing that may not even be sick. Stay home.

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That is what was originally thought, but numerous more recent scientific studies have shown that's not at all the case. It is only contagious when an infected person is in close proximity for a prolonged period of time.

The findings of those studies align with what we've actually seen: much lower-than-expected spread in general, and the majority of the cases in areas of dense populations (e.g., people crammed in a subway or working in close, confined quarters).

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Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton

If you look at the trend bar graph you see Sweden has a wide range in daily deaths (or more likely daily reported deaths). So averaging across weeks presents a much better picture of what is going on. You just cherry picked 2 data points to fit a narrative. Do you work for the MSM?!?

Again, no spike, nothing tripled. We don’t need to fear being like Sweden, and should aspire to be like Sweden in government mandated shut downs.

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Just want to present some data to this discussion, as Sweden is on a far worse track than Ohio currently. The populations are close but if you normalize the stats by population (deaths from COVID/1,000,000 people) you will see that there is a definite split after day 10. Day 1 is defined as first day of a COVID death. On day 10, Ohio had a death rate of 10.2 deaths per million people. Sweden was at 10.6. Ohio is currently on day 24, Sweden day 31.
Ohio on day 23: 38.6 deaths/million people.
Sweden on day 23: 85.8 deaths/million people.

You can see all data here

New deaths/day follows a similar pattern if you look at that too.

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Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun

Just want to present some data to this discussion, as Sweden is on a far worse track than Ohio currently. The populations are close but if you normalize the stats by population (deaths from COVID/1,000,000 people) you will see that there is a definite split after day 10. Day 1 is defined as first day of a COVID death. On day 10, Ohio had a death rate of 10.2 deaths per million people. Sweden was at 10.6. Ohio is currently on day 24, Sweden day 31.
Ohio on day 23: 38.6 deaths/million people.
Sweden on day 23: 85.8 deaths/million people.

You can see all data here

New deaths/day follows a similar pattern if you look at that too.

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Nice analysis. I agree that doesn’t look as good for Sweden. They have been fairly aggressive in counting as noted in the article I referenced in pose 1203, but I can’t tell how much if any difference this would make vs. Ohio.

Saying this virus is not a problem because it isn't in your backyard is like saying global warming is not an issue because the weather is nice out in Ohio today. Oh wait, we already have that thread.

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Originally Posted by SemajParlor

Saying this virus is not a problem because it isn't in your backyard is like saying global warming is not an issue because the weather is nice out in Ohio today. Oh wait, we already have that thread.

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It’s is defiantly a problem in some areas but not everywhere so we shouldn’t shut everything down in areas where it’s not an issue. And if this thing was so deadly, how are these essential businesses staying in business? I mean you would think there would be mass cases and deaths involved with these businesses that have stayed open the entire time.

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Originally Posted by Masterofreality

Ok, I'm calling Boolsheet on this. Allegedly 1380 new cases reported, but less Hospitalizations and ICU admits than almost any other day.

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MOR, where do you get the statistics. Just curious, would like to see them.

Maybe the larger number of cases reported is a result of having access to more tests? With more people tested, you might find more positives in the early stage of the disease, who don't show up as admissions until later. Just a thought. Hope that's not the case.

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Originally Posted by Masterofreality

It's all about the subways- oh, and DeBlase' s attitude early on, when he was telling people to "just live your lives" and "I'm going to the gym"- on March 13.

And whoever the idiot is that runs the subway schedules there cut down the number of routes when this started. That made more people have to cram into the remaining trains that were running rather than people being allowed to spread it out.

GREAT JOB NEW YORK!!

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Very good point about the subways. We usually Uber or take a taxi, but have taken the subway on occasion when up there. What a cute little Petri dish that is! YEESH!

There is a guy on my NFL board with a PhD in biochemistry who worked for decades in big Pharma and university research settings. He, and several others like him, can give you a very healthy appreciation for how complex and dangerous this is or can become. I also understand we can’t shut the country down and create economic chaos. The conflicting studies make me wonder. I honestly don’t know the right path or timing, but surely more things can open up safely in some areas. We just can’t go back to crowded bars at happy hour and concerts just yet.

If anything good is coming out of this, a little more time gains us more knowledge about what we are dealing with. It seems every day we know a little more, and that can’t hurt. Something has to change here.

On a bright note, I got my first takeout food today in about 5 weeks. A place I like in Buckhead has a slick curbside arrangement. It was DELICIOUS! I enjoy cooking.....but I’m sick of it now! I want to support the local places as much as possible. The chain joints have more in reserve, and I generally try to avoid them anyway.