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Thread: Covid-19

  1. #11
    Supporting Member GIMMFD's Avatar
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    So, I guess doctor knowledge would come in handy, here are some actual facts about the Coronavirus and you guys can determine from there how you guys want to handle it:

    - We've known about Coronavirus being a thing for a lot of years, it just happens this particular strain is a little more potent. The strain changes its genetic composition, which basically means a vaccine for the thing is pretty damn hard to generate due to phases of a clinical trial you have to go through in order to have anything approved in the first place. Coronavirus is the virus responsible for SARS (South Asian Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) that were prevalent however many years ago.

    - For most people, this is NOT a deadly virus, and will produce mild flu-like symptoms. The people most at risk are the ones that are elderly and young children who have poor immune systems. Obviously anybody who is immunocompromised (ie cancer, HIV, autoimmune diseases like lupus, etc.) fall in that category as well. The fatality rate for this virus is actually around 2%, which is chance due to chance alone. The risk increases to 10% with a risk factor (ie smoking, diabetes, etc. or any of the conditions above), and 20% with two risk factors. The influenza virus that happens every winter actually has a higher case fatality rate. However, this is where the problem lies, as most people who have it, aren't debilitated by it, and go out into public and end up infecting people.

    - The virus is transmitted via respiratory droplets, which means talking, coughing, etc. all those things can easily transmit the virus. The virus also isn't like other viruses where warm weather kills it off, it general does alright in warm weather. The best way to prevent transmission is to practice good hand washing skills. If you get a mask, just know that the mask doesn't really protect you, it protects other people from you more than anything. Also make sure you are wearing the mask properly if you do (or buy stock in 3M who's prices rise a lot during outbreaks, look at the pricing of 3M during the last epidemic of the Swine Flu for example). Don't touch your face, all that good stuff.

    Ultimately I would say the severity should be a little above non-chalant, but now as crazy as people are making it out to be. Yes, it is associated with risks, but all viruses are associated with risks. If you fall under the categories above take special precaution, but if you're a young, healthy, human with not a lot of risk factors, even getting this virus wouldn't be that big of a deal. You should definitely avoid going into public if you are feeling sick, as the self-quarantine rules are in place to try to kill off the spread of it. Ultimately, this carries no higher risk than getting the seasonal flu, nor does it cause more deaths than getting the seasonal flu. Practice good sanitation habits, but don't be afraid to carry out your day to day activities.

  2. #12
    Supporting Member xu82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjf123 View Post
    It sounds good to say everyone should be able to get tested. Here’s the question. How quickly can you make 357 million test kits? Even if only half of the people want to be tested, that’s still almost 180 million tests. How long will it then take to process those tests?

    It’s impractical to suggest that’s remotely possibly, yet I’m hearing people in the media blaming Trump for not having the tests readily available.


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    You don’t need to test EVERYBODY, obviously. Just those that have been exposed and are at risk. My wife recently hired an RFP writer in Boston. She flew to Ft Myers, FL this weekend to see her dying father. When she arrived she was told they had 2 confirmed with the virus in the hospital and she couldn’t see her dad one more time. She signed off on all kinds of crazy stuff and was allowed in. NOWHERE near the infected people, but she was in a busy hospital. Now she finds she’s got it, after flying back last night.

    The people in that hospital should have been tested. It was known to be there, and allowed to spread to God knows where because it was neglected.
    Last edited by xu82; 03-09-2020 at 06:47 PM.

  3. #13
    Junior Lloyd Braun's Avatar
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    Mortality rate is unknown currently and fluctuates wildly. Current WHO estimate is 3.4%.

    The tests are easy to produce if given the appropriate funds, it’s a simple RNA PCR test similar to the flu. The problem was we were waiting until it was in the US to allocate funding. I’m not blaming Trump but at the same time when it is eradicated and he says what a great job all of his people did to prevent so many deaths (which he will inevitably take credit for) I will be happy to call BS on those saying it’s not his fault now for rapid spreading and lack of testing.

    Oh, and toilet paper is nice to stock up on if you don’t leave the house... I bet there are a lot of Italians in need of a nice roll of charmin.

  4. #14
    Supporting Member xubrew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GIMMFD View Post
    So, I guess doctor knowledge would come in handy, here are some actual facts about the Coronavirus and you guys can determine from there how you guys want to handle it:

    - We've known about Coronavirus being a thing for a lot of years, it just happens this particular strain is a little more potent. The strain changes its genetic composition, which basically means a vaccine for the thing is pretty damn hard to generate due to phases of a clinical trial you have to go through in order to have anything approved in the first place. Coronavirus is the virus responsible for SARS (South Asian Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) that were prevalent however many years ago.

    - For most people, this is NOT a deadly virus, and will produce mild flu-like symptoms. The people most at risk are the ones that are elderly and young children who have poor immune systems. Obviously anybody who is immunocompromised (ie cancer, HIV, autoimmune diseases like lupus, etc.) fall in that category as well. The fatality rate for this virus is actually around 2%, which is chance due to chance alone. The risk increases to 10% with a risk factor (ie smoking, diabetes, etc. or any of the conditions above), and 20% with two risk factors. The influenza virus that happens every winter actually has a higher case fatality rate. However, this is where the problem lies, as most people who have it, aren't debilitated by it, and go out into public and end up infecting people.

    - The virus is transmitted via respiratory droplets, which means talking, coughing, etc. all those things can easily transmit the virus. The virus also isn't like other viruses where warm weather kills it off, it general does alright in warm weather. The best way to prevent transmission is to practice good hand washing skills. If you get a mask, just know that the mask doesn't really protect you, it protects other people from you more than anything. Also make sure you are wearing the mask properly if you do (or buy stock in 3M who's prices rise a lot during outbreaks, look at the pricing of 3M during the last epidemic of the Swine Flu for example). Don't touch your face, all that good stuff.

    Ultimately I would say the severity should be a little above non-chalant, but now as crazy as people are making it out to be. Yes, it is associated with risks, but all viruses are associated with risks. If you fall under the categories above take special precaution, but if you're a young, healthy, human with not a lot of risk factors, even getting this virus wouldn't be that big of a deal. You should definitely avoid going into public if you are feeling sick, as the self-quarantine rules are in place to try to kill off the spread of it. Ultimately, this carries no higher risk than getting the seasonal flu, nor does it cause more deaths than getting the seasonal flu. Practice good sanitation habits, but don't be afraid to carry out your day to day activities.
    Why should we believe a doctor when social media is telling us differently!!??
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  5. #15
    Supporting Member D-West & PO-Z's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjf123 View Post
    It sounds good to say everyone should be able to get tested. Hereís the question. How quickly can you make 357 million test kits? Even if only half of the people want to be tested, thatís still almost 180 million tests. How long will it then take to process those tests?

    Itís impractical to suggest thatís remotely possibly, yet Iím hearing people in the media blaming Trump for not having the tests readily available.


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    C'mon dont be ridiculous. They dont need 350 million tests or even close to 180 million. We have tested 2,000 people (as of a few days ago) in this country. Ohio has 400 test kits total.

    https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...-kits-covid-19

    "The figures we gathered suggest that the American response to the coronavirus and the disease it causes, COVID-19, has been shockingly sluggish, especially compared with that of other developed countries. The CDC confirmed eight days ago that the virus was in community transmission in the United Statesóthat it was infecting Americans who had neither traveled abroad nor were in contact with others who had. In South Korea, more than 66,650 people were tested within a week of its first case of community transmission, and it quickly became able to test 10,000 people a day. The United Kingdom, which has only 115 positive cases, has so far tested 18,083 people for the virus."

    The testing has been a cluster. There are people who have come in close contact with people who have confirmed diagnosis who are being turned away from being tested.
    "Iím willing to sacrifice everything for this team. Iím going to dive for every loose ball, close out harder on every shot, block out for every rebound. Iím going to play harder than Iíve ever played. And I need you all to follow me." -MB '17

  6. #16
    Supporting Member D-West & PO-Z's Avatar
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    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...y-soon-improve

    "In what is already an infamous snafu, CDC initially refused a request to test a patient in Northern California who turned out to be the first probable COVID19 case without known links to an infected person."
    "Iím willing to sacrifice everything for this team. Iím going to dive for every loose ball, close out harder on every shot, block out for every rebound. Iím going to play harder than Iíve ever played. And I need you all to follow me." -MB '17

  7. #17
    Senior Moderator xeus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nuts4xu View Post
    Why are people stocking up on toilet paper? Does the corona virus give you the shits?
    That's a great question. I feel like there's something I'm missing out on.

  8. #18
    Supporting Member GIMMFD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun View Post
    Mortality rate is unknown currently and fluctuates wildly. Current WHO estimate is 3.4%.

    The tests are easy to produce if given the appropriate funds, itís a simple RNA PCR test similar to the flu. The problem was we were waiting until it was in the US to allocate funding. Iím not blaming Trump but at the same time when it is eradicated and he says what a great job all of his people did to prevent so many deaths (which he will inevitably take credit for) I will be happy to call BS on those saying itís not his fault now for rapid spreading and lack of testing.

    Oh, and toilet paper is nice to stock up on if you donít leave the house... I bet there are a lot of Italians in need of a nice roll of charmin.
    The mortality rates are unknown due to how it's being reported (aka some countries may not be honest with their numbers, etc.), but I tell you whole heartedly without any doubt in my mind, with a lot of medical jargon crap that I won't bore you guys with, that the numbers I said (1-3% in the general population, 10% with a risk factor, 20% with two risk factors) are how it plays out. The reason the mortality rate is fluctuating wildly is really because it depends who gets infected, the ones more at risk are obviously have a higher chance to die, and as it is a respiratory droplet transmission virus it's much easier to transmit. If you remember the Ebola scare a few years ago, the US only had 1 case I believe, and it was pretty well contained in Africa, that's because that virus spreads through human contact (ie bodily fluids basically), couple that with the fact that this one does decently well in warm weather, it's going to play out longer, so the mortality rates will continue to fluctuate, again depending on who gets infected.

    You are very correct about the testing, and I will agree that the US government has dropped the ball on appropriately preparing for this endemic. Unfortunately because the strain is very different from past Coronaviruses we aren't exactly sure the complete characteristics on it, how long it can live on surfaces, etc. There's probably not going to be a vaccine for it made (ie in 2003 when SARS was going on, they were making a vaccine for it, but then the endemic stopped before the vaccine reached clinical trial), but it absolutely blows my mind that when it first started becoming a major thing in China why we weren't already pushing out testing for places. Though testing is going to be more available in the next coming weeks, it was a complete misstep to not prepare for it properly.

    Here's what Harvard's Medical Department had to say about it, I haven't read it, but I have a feeling if you read it, it'll basically be saying the same things I have: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/...-2020022719004

    Quote Originally Posted by nuts4xu View Post
    Why are people stocking up on toilet paper? Does the corona virus give you the shits?
    Lmfao well actually some percentage of people have been reporting GI symptoms with it, but in general no, I think it's just in case you run out of toilet paper and there's a shutdown like what's going on in Italy. I'm sure you could go the old European way and figure out a makeshift bidet.

  9. #19
    Supporting Member bjf123's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z View Post
    C'mon dont be ridiculous. They dont need 350 million tests or even close to 180 million. We have tested 2,000 people (as of a few days ago) in this country. Ohio has 400 test kits total.
    I agree that itís ridiculous, but some of the talking heads on the Left leaning media have been blaming Trump for not having tests available for everyone. Of course, heís busy patting himself and the administration on the back. The reality is somewhere between the two.


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  10. #20
    Supporting Member D-West & PO-Z's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjf123 View Post
    I agree that it’s ridiculous, but some of the talking heads on the Left leaning media have been blaming Trump for not having tests available for everyone. Of course, he’s busy patting himself and the administration on the back. The reality is somewhere between the two.


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    The issue isnt that we dont have tests for everyone (anyone who says that is the issue is wrong) it is that we dont even have tests for everyone that has been confirmed to be in contact with those who have confirmed diagnosis including healthcare workers. The US was incredibly slow and bungled at the very least the test kits part.
    "Iím willing to sacrifice everything for this team. Iím going to dive for every loose ball, close out harder on every shot, block out for every rebound. Iím going to play harder than Iíve ever played. And I need you all to follow me." -MB '17

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