Kentucky Derby

[xu82]

And Coco Cooley XU'21 is the WINNER! All hail Coco!

[Juice]

I hit the exacta and won some money.

[xu82]

I hit the exacta and won some money.

CONGRATS! I hope it was YUUUGE and you are now looking for a private island from where you can post in the future.

[Juice]

Mel,

Got any good tips or reading for Saturday's Preakness?

[paulxu]

I've got Cloud Computing.

Who you got?

[Lloyd Braun]

Any tips this year? I’m pretty clueless with horses.

[muskiefan82]

There are so many really good horses this year. There appear to be seven actual, real, potential winners of the Derby. Crazy.

If I had to pick a winner right now, I would go with Justify, but you won't win much with that bet.

On a side note, I know very little about horse racing except that you should not listen to me.

[bourbonman]

Any tips this year? I’m pretty clueless with horses.

We're all clueless, but act like we know what we're doing. I've hit big a few years and not so much in others. Here's how it's shaping up IMHO:

1- Justify will go off the justifiable favorite with Morning Line of 3-1 and out of gate I'm guessing 5-2, maybe still 3-1. Last won Santa Anita Derby and has the best Beyer in the field of 107. Solidly beat what will probably be 5th choice in ML, which is one of only 3 horses with a triple Beyer. Must be considered IMO.
2- Magnum Moon will be co-second choice ML around 6-1. Last won Arkansas Derby against weak competition. I'll use low in exotics. (This will probably doom him to the winners circle.)
3- Mendelsshon will be other second co-favorite in ML at 6-1 and will quickly move up to be second favorite at 4-1 or 9-2. If he stays at 5-1 or higher then Justify will slip below 3-1. Crushed (I mean CRUSHED) the field in the UAE Derby, which was his first time on dirt. He loved it. Shipped in Monday from Ireland and will be ready with the second highest Beyer at 106. Along with Justify, will be one of my 3 top picks.
4- Audible will be ML around 8-1. Last won the Florida Derby and will have a huge chance. Will be in my mix, just not sure if on top. Best Beyer of 99, which is fourth choice in this field. TRIVIA: While all horses must be three years of age, this horse is the nephew of Mendelsshon. His sire is also from Mendelsshon's dam.
5- Bolt d'Oro will also be around 8-1. Last of three horses with a triple Beyer which he earned by coming in 2nd in Santa Anita vs. Justify. I was high on this horse until that and will still play him strong. Has great talent which makes what Justify did that much more interesting.
6- Good Magic should be next around 12-1. Last won the Blue Grass against an unimpressive field with a 95 Beyer. I'll use low in exotics.
7- Ladies and Gentlemen. Boys and Girls. Time to get off your wallets and head to the windows. Vino Rosso going off at 15-1 (BIG price) will absolutely LOVE this distance. Last won the Wood Memorial with a 98 Beyer, which was a huge step forward from his previous outing. If you look for horses that are improving and like this distance, don't turn your head. I'm just hoping he doesn't become the wiseguy choice and the odds drop too much. (Did I say big price?) One of my top 3 choices.
8+ Others I will watch and possibly use at bottom of exotics are Nobly Indy (won LA Derby with a huge improved when he added blinkers 1st time), Hofburg (has big upside), Combatant (has run the fastest last 3/8's of any horse in field).

Just my two cents worth on top half of field. Interesting bet this year called the Bourbon Double. Simply a Daily Double but on the Old Forester Turf Classic (race before the Derby) and the Kentucky Derby (presented by Woodford Reserve) hence the name Bourbon Double. Churchill Downs will do anything to get their take up.

Enjoy and Good Luck to all.

[Lloyd Braun]

What about My Boy Jack? Seems to finish near top of all races from what I can see. Currently 15-1.

[bourbonman]

What about My Boy Jack? Seems to finish near top of all races from what I can see. Currently 15-1.

My Boy Jack was first in the Lexington which was just 2 weeks ago. Earned a 90 Beyer, usually weak to be considered a Derby winner. Perfect kind of horse to screw up the bottom of my exotics since I will have to cut back somewhere and can't bet everything, but I consider a cut below the rest. And I believe he'll be much longer odds than 15-1, so if your horse, you'll enjoy the payout if he can deliver. JMHO.