Xavier Basketball: 0 to 60 Months

[xudash]

Firstly, we know what we know:

1. N I L. I think we believe it will evolve.

2. The Portal. It has created and continues to create a lot of movement and therefore roster management issues.

3. Coaching. We have Sean Miller back, and it appears that he'll stick around for a long while.

4. Program. Absent outside forces, our program has never been in a stronger position; Cintas Center capital projects have been fabulous.

5. Conference. The Big East is setting itself up for long-term prestige; the new media agreement is key.

Now, take the above 5 factors and add any that you deem appropriate, then provide your opinion on where you see college basketball in 5 years and where you see Xavier University in particular within that space.

I'm not trying to create a new thread for the sake of creating a new thread. It's the off-season. We've all been trained to think critically. Let's have a little "fun" putting all the variables into the noggin and come out with some visualizations of where we might be down the road.

Have at it.

[Uncle Joe]

As one national pundit recently tweeted, the BE had one helluva a March: UConn champions / 3 S16s / Rick Pitino / major help on the way for G-town.

Thank God we have Sean Miller to keep XU in the top 3rd+ of the BE.

Having said that, I think NIL could potentially be a major detriment to college hoops. I think if it appears that the sport (and college Fball) is pay for play, it will damage the "reputation" of the sport. I'm basing this off my own feelings, and others on this board who have expressed similar thoughts. If the rumor that Krissa went to WVU for $500K is true, it only reinforces that perception. I'm hoping that the NCAA (or whoever) will formulate some rules that will prevent money from ruling where players go to school, while still allowing them to benefit from their successes on the court/field. What that will look like is beyond my pay grade.

[MHettel]

Because of 1 & 2, I can envision the entire strategy for roster construction changing.

Teams that have little NIL money will focus on HS players and hope they come in and can give the team 2 years of productivity. If the player is really good, and the current team can’t pull together any scratch, then that player hits the portal looking for the NIL payday.

Teams that have access to big NIL money can almost forego the grind of recruiting HS players for 1 plus years and just go crazy each year in free agency (aka the portal).

It’s a GRIND to recruit HS guys and how many just turn out to be misses? At least with a transfer you know that the kid can play at the level.

Further, I think (most of the) HS players will shift to a strategy of picking a school where they think/know they can get some early PT and increase their portal value in a couple years. Sitting the bench is NOT good for NIL value. You gotta play.

I also think rotations will get a little deeper and pace could increase. Teams with deep NIL pockets can “buy” depth and coaches will need to demonstrate that they are willing to go 8+ deep and players will adapt to 30 minutes being the high end of PT. Players will be rested, healthy and not worried about fouls.

I also think guys will stick around more often as opposed to leaving early. The sure fire NBA guys won’t be swayed, but the G League and Europe guys can stay and get paid and earn that diploma.

Due to all of this, I expect the average age of rosters to shift towards “older” for the NIL teams and younger for the “poor” teams.

But yeah, other that that, just like it’s always been

[xukeith]

More turnover of rosters. More transfers. Rarely will there be a 4-5 year player at one program.
I suspect more changes will come to attempt to regulate NIL. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing.
Less one and done players. More athletes will stay (not at 1 program but stay in multiple colleges) and get paid and have great health benefits.

[XUGRAD80]

NIL…..it will certainly evolve as time goes on, both in support of it and in the regulations regarding it. It’s going to take the courts and the NCAA to come to agreements as to how much regulation is going to be allowed. It may well take the Congress to enact new laws. College athletics is a HUGE business in the US. There is going to be a lot of lobbying from different parties to Congress, asking for their help to formulate regulations that will withstand legal challenges. As another said, there has to be a compromise solution made that allows the athletes to be fairly compensated for their NIL, that protects the kids from being taken advantage of, and still keeps it from becoming a pay for play situation where only the biggest and richest are competing with each other. I believe that it is in the best interest of the colleges, and the NCAA, to make sure that more than just a very few schools dominate year after year. I think that they have to do all that they can to make sure that the NIL doesn’t create a situation where only the biggest and richest will survive.


Portal….will it become complete free agency, where anyone can transfer at any time? Will a one-time only transfer rule stand up in the courts? I really don’t know at this point how this is going to play out. I do know that I support the right of athletes to transfer. I especially think that the rule should be changed so that if the head coach leaves that the players should automatically then be allowed to transfer freely too, even if they transferred once before. But as a coach, I’d be wary of the player that transfers more than once. I’d wonder how much of a “team” player they are and how much of an “I” person they are. The schools need to have some stability here too. It will not be good for the schools if they have to rebuild their rosters every year. Some stability will be good for them and for fan interest too.

Coaching…..I’m very happy that Miller is back, hopefully for a long long time. But never say never.

Program….if one and two become completely unregulated and out of control, can X compete successfully? Will they even want to try and do so? X is still just a very SMALL school. It really can’t afford to try and compete financially with schools that have much more money and much larger alumni bases. It would be suicide to try and do so. The program is in great shape right now. Fan interest is at an all-time high. But if they find themselves unable to compete successfully with others, will it remain so?

Conference…the BE needs to remember who they are and why they exist, and not forget it. They are an EASTERN BASKETBALL league. They fill a NICHE. Trying to compete with the big football dominated conferences by extending their footprint westward is not a good idea. Possibly bringing in more EASTERN schools that have BB as their bell cow, is where they should be concentrating their expansion interest (if they have any interest in expansion at all). But even then, they should only consider schools that have shown the ability and the interest to support the programs in all ways….financially, fan interest, facilities, staffs, etc……at the level of the best current members. Don’t bring in new schools just to get bigger. Only bring in new schools if they have something to offer and will be competitive with the rest of the league.

[paulxu]

When you see the amount of money well-to-do people pour into football programs, it's often mind-boggling. Close by Clemson is a perfect example.
Thousands spent by boosters just for parking pass spots, luxury suites, etc. and donations directly to the program for massive bricks and mortar projects.

If those fat cats will spend $500K for one player to go to WVa for what might be one year...I wonder if this sort of spending won't wane over time.
Especially if the player is an incoming freshman...and then transfers the very next year.
The football people get some tangible benefit yearly, and money to the school stays at home to build things. But money to the kids is fleeting.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think the NIL related fears of only a few select, elite schools being able to compete is misguided. I think that was how things were already. I think NIL has allowed and will allow more schools to compete, not less. Which schools can capitalize remains to be seen, but I hope X is one of them. I think NIL opens up the opportunity to professional level caliber (non-NBA level) players to stay longer and could create more continuity in some cases. See Jack Nunge as an example if he returns. Pre NIL, no shot.

Someone made a reference to fearing that college basketball (or college sports in general) would turn into the MLB where only a select few teams can win. I'd argue college sports were already worse in that regard than the MLB and the opposite result is more likely.

In the last 25 years 15 different franchises have won a World Series. In the last 25 years 13 different schools won the NCAA tournament. I think that number doesn't get worse, and has a chance at getting better.

I think some more regulations to the portal and probably NIL are coming in some form or fashion and is probably warranted and will likely help to some degree.

[Xville]

I do wonder… will the money begin drying up after a few years for the fat cats? I mean throwing in a million here and there every year has to hurt the pocketbook at some point. I know there are a ton of rich people especially in areas of Miami, left coast, northeast but it’s not like owning a sports team when you have money coming in. Maybe I’m completely wrong

[D-West & PO-Z]

I do wonder… will the money begin drying up after a few years for the fat cats? I mean throwing in a million here and there every year has to hurt the pocketbook at some point. I know there are a ton of rich people especially in areas of Miami, left coast, northeast but it’s not like owning a sports team when you have money coming in. Maybe I’m completely wrong

I think the collectives that get just every fan donations will become a bigger source down the line.

But yeah, I would love to know who the money is coming from now. Individuals? Businesses? Collectives?

Like I heard some fairly big figures rumored for current X players. Where did that come from? The Xavier collective seems fairly new. How much does the trading cards and shirts with their names generate? Colby did a turbo tax ad I believe, wonder how much that was?

[JTG]

Speaking of NIL monies. I heard Iu & Purdue players TJD and Edey got $900k each.
Also has it occurred to anyone else that maybe Huggs helped with the $500k just to put it to X, since we've won every meeting with him since he left Clifton?