Covid-19

[Muskie in dayton]

Can you extrapolate on this? I tend to think both are major factors as we’ve seen human behavior directly affect transmission.

I assume you meant expand on this. If so, sure, start with the work of Edgar Hope-Simpson on influenza. He demonstrates that the seasonal patterns of spread are correlated with latitude. This was before social media and fear mongering news, it happened without government interventions and people being scared into their basements. It demonstrates exactly what the virus does naturally. It comes, it peaks, and it drops at different places on the globe at different times based on season.

COVID is extremely similar to influenza (size, both airborne respiratory viruses), and the spread around the globe for the last 18 months has followed the Hope-Simpson model remarkably - almost perfectly. This includes the mid-summer peak, primarily in the northern tropical region, but to a lesser degree in the northern temperate. This is what we are seeing now. If you want to see this, go to Worldometer and look at States. Start with Florida (greatest peak) and work your way up I-75 to MI, which is seeing just a bit of a bump. The virus does what it does, then fizzles out.

I had mentioned this would happen in a post about a month or so ago. I was right about the spike, and I was right the media would blame DeSantis' laissez-faire policy. I did not expect the magnitude of the spike, which I will attribute to the higher transmissivity of the Delta, but the patterns are as expected.

On that topic, we are close to the big drop that happened last year, and in India, and in England. I'd guess within about 10 days or so the drop in the US will be clear (already seeing it in some States). And yet again the same thing will happen in all States, regardless of their NPIs, and the media will have to quickly deflect from Florida-bad talk.

I'll also go out on a limb now, and predict that again we will see another spike in early-November to early January, and there's nothing humankind can do to stop it. I hope to God I'm wrong.

[XU_Lou]

I assume you meant expand on this. If so, sure, start with the work of Edgar Hope-Simpson on influenza. He demonstrates that the seasonal patterns of spread are correlated with latitude. This was before social media and fear mongering news, it happened without government interventions and people being scared into their basements. It demonstrates exactly what the virus does naturally. It comes, it peaks, and it drops at different places on the globe at different times based on season.

COVID is extremely similar to influenza (size, both airborne respiratory viruses), and the spread around the globe for the last 18 months has followed the Hope-Simpson model remarkably - almost perfectly. This includes the mid-summer peak, primarily in the northern tropical region, but to a lesser degree in the northern temperate. This is what we are seeing now. If you want to see this, go to Worldometer and look at States. Start with Florida (greatest peak) and work your way up I-75 to MI, which is seeing just a bit of a bump. The virus does what it does, then fizzles out.

I had mentioned this would happen in a post about a month or so ago. I was right about the spike, and I was right the media would blame DeSantis' laissez-faire policy. I did not expect the magnitude of the spike, which I will attribute to the higher transmissivity of the Delta, but the patterns are as expected.

On that topic, we are close to the big drop that happened last year, and in India, and in England. I'd guess within about 10 days or so the drop in the US will be clear (already seeing it in some States). And yet again the same thing will happen in all States, regardless of their NPIs, and the media will have to quickly deflect from Florida-bad talk.

I'll also go out on a limb now, and predict that again we will see another spike in early-November to early January, and there's nothing humankind can do to stop it. I hope to God I'm wrong.

Actually, you've mentioned this a few times. Just as a point of clarification, the spikes occur when people are "funneled" indoors due to weather - cold winters in the north, hot summers in the south - allowing viruses to spread more easily - is that correct?

[Muskie in dayton]

Your thoughts on this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUPD0W71iMc

Lloyd: I would be interested in hearing your thoughts as well.

Regardless of the facts of the matter, I like what someone said in the comments - the fact that the arguments presented here are never addressed plays a large role in why so many do not trust the government and media. When they are addressed, the arguments are generally filled with ad hominem attacks, quotes repeated from news stories that couldn't be verified in the first place, and other sources that have little credibility. If honest discussion was being had we might all end up with the truth, but honest discussion is not being had. That this does not concern the vast majority of people is far more concerning to me than which position you take regarding vaccines.

Principal

It was removed before I could see it, and labeled as "misinformation". But I loved your final paragraph Principal. I'm far more concerned about the unwillingness to engage in healthy debate on the issue, than I am about if whatever he said was bullshit. If it was all bullshit, surely some simple debate would expose that, and he can go off looking like a fool.

Or maybe it's not that simple. What is more far dangerous than COVID is allowing an internet social media company to decide what is and isn't misinformation. Not only is it dangerous because censorship is bad, but it's even more dangerous because when "the other side" sees these videos "canceled" it makes their suspicion and distrust all the greater.

That's why we are where we are in all this.

[Muskie in dayton]

Actually, you've mentioned this a few times. Just as a point of clarification, the spikes occur when people are "funneled" indoors due to weather - cold winters in the north, hot summers in the south - allowing viruses to spread more easily - is that correct?

That is a theory, but I don't think it's the driving factor. Regardless of the season, people spend the vast majority of their day indoors every day of the year. I'd think the difference in time Florida residents, for instance, spend inside in August is only slightly greater than they spend indoors in April.

[Muskie in dayton]

Here are a few other COVID musings:

1. These guys are at it again and it's fricking hilarious. They made this back in June. They are also profits.

2. Congratulations to Cincinnati's Princeton School District, for the new record of asinine COVID policy: They are going to mask the elementary school kids, who rarely get anymore than a sniffle from COVID and also rarely transmit it. But... good news folks - if you were wearing a mask and get exposed to someone who tests positive, you don't have to quarantine! Brilliant! Wear that kitty pattern face cloth mask you bought on Etsy which does nothing to stop the virus, and you can still come to school and spread it more! Other than "stay home if you're sick", quarantining is about the only thing that makes sense, but don't bother with that.

3. And finally, happy 60th to Barack Obama!!! He had an amazing extravaganza, packed house, sans masks and not everyone vaccinated. Hey, do as we say, not as we do, yet again.

[XU_Lou]

Here are a few other COVID musings:

1. These guys are at it again and it's fricking hilarious. They made this back in June. They are also profits.

2. Congratulations to Cincinnati's Princeton School District, for the new record of asinine COVID policy: They are going to mask the elementary school kids, who rarely get anymore than a sniffle from COVID and also rarely transmit it. But... good news folks - if you were wearing a mask and get exposed to someone who tests positive, you don't have to quarantine! Brilliant! Wear that kitty pattern face cloth mask you bought on Etsy which does nothing to stop the virus, and you can still come to school and spread it more! Other than "stay home if you're sick", quarantining is about the only thing that makes sense, but don't bother with that.

3. And finally, happy 60th to Barack Obama!!! He had an amazing extravaganza, packed house, sans masks and not everyone vaccinated. Hey, do as we say, not as we do, yet again.

Just stay away from Sturgis!!

Fauci: Sturgis bad - but no comment on the Obama superspreader event (I know, I know, they're "sophisticated") or Biden's open border policy or BLM protests last year. Yea, he's real trustworthy...

[principal]

This is a great example of the point I was making around people choosing to believe people who sow doubt and skepticism.

First of all - This appears to be a video from a school board meeting in rural Indiana of one individual Doctor lecturing the school board with an opinion that he states as fact. Why do you assume that what he is saying is true and accurately represented? Is it because he says he is a Doctor? Why do you believe this one Doctor over the thousands of other Doctors saying that complete opposite? There is nothing scientific about this. It's just poking holes in existing theory, which you can do all day long.

He then goes on to state that he has treated 15(?) COVID-19 patients with Ivermectin and Zinc and that they haven't had to go to the hospital as supporting fact. He states, without evidence, that the vaccine will somehow make COVID-19 worse. Based on his sample size of 15 patients.

So - on one hand you can believe the entire medical community including the CDC, and the rest of the developed world's health care communities. You can believe the data from vaccine clinical trials. But instead you choose to believe this guy who is telling you to take Zinc and a non-FDA Approved treatment for parasitic worms that is predominantly used in animals. Do you really think he has stumbled upon the 'solution' for COVID based on his 15 patients that he has treated, that somehow the whole world has missed.

The reason this 'isn't being discussed' is because they aren't credible refutations of the existing scientific evidence, and it would be impossible for the CDC and FDA to address every baseless claim that someone makes at a school board meeting.

Thank you for your response. FWIW, and to clarify one more time, I do not believe what he says. I am undecided on COVID vaccines, as I have stated in prior posts. I am trying to learn more in order to determine what is true and what is false.

On to your post...

Almost every statement you made was either an ad hominem fallacy or an ad populum fallacy. There is not a single, legitimate argument in anything you wrote - and you mischaracterized what was said in the video. He did provide arguments - you ignored all of them and opted for classic fallacies, but he did provide arguments. Admittedly he did not delve deep into any of the arguments, but his time was limited and so he summarized them. I don't begrudge you the right to take a position, but I do not understand why you think you have the high ground when you have done the very things of which you are accusing others.

Principal

[principal]

I mostly echo boozehound’s thoughts as this doctor presents a lot of misinformation in rapid fire succession. The video has been removed, but I watched it while it was up. There is some value with functional medicine vs traditional medicine in certain scenarios so I don’t want to say his opinion is not valuable because he is a functional medicine doctor. However he argues that the vaccine has somehow promoted spreading, and one piece of evidence for that is that it is spreading in summer months in spite of everyone’s vitamin D levels being higher. While there is some data to support vitamin D for covid prevention, there are a million other factors for contracting covid.

And yes, 15 patients is hardly a high enough number to have to say something works. Hospitalization rate is MAYBE 1/15 in high risk individuals so that part made me chuckle. For comparison at the local hospitals I have affiliation there have been about 400 monoclonal antibody infusions done and have had less than 10 hospitalizations in high risk individuals that received treatment in the first 7 days of symptoms. That’s a 70% reduction in hospitalizations and none of the patients died. That is why we give the monoclonal antibodies and not ivermectin.

Again, there is a role for functional medicine, it does promote healthy lifestyle which can prevent a lot of chronic conditions.

Lloyd: thank you for your comments, they are always level-headed, and appreciated. I am trying to wade through all of the information out there, your comments are helpful.

With that said, a good friend of mine just returned home from the hospital - he was there for COVID/complications related to COVID. FWIW, he has not been vaccinated. As I received periodic reports from his wife his situation seemed to be going down an all too familiar road - he started feeling bad, then worse, tested positive for COVID, and then developed pneumonia, was having trouble breathing, etc. He was in the ER three times, the third time they decided to keep him there for five days for treatment in the hopes it would keep him out of the ICU and off of a ventilator. I thought it was pretty scary. At one point we spoke and he said his body was not producing antibodies to fight off pneumonia or COVID. It definitely brought to mind some of the stories I have read in the news - stories that do not end well. Apparently there was a change for the better and he wound up home after three days. I am not saying he is through the woods but according to the docs he is headed in the right direction.

Scary stuff - especially for a guy who has a wife and two kids.

Take care and again, thank you for the info and for responding to everyone respectfully.

Principal

[principal]

All those people clapping for the Doc didn’t follow the science, but they were pretty sure they were hearing what they wanted to hear. And THAT is how it too often works.

Comments like this are not helpful.

[Lloyd Braun]

I assume you meant expand on this. If so, sure, start with the work of Edgar Hope-Simpson on influenza. He demonstrates that the seasonal patterns of spread are correlated with latitude. This was before social media and fear mongering news, it happened without government interventions and people being scared into their basements. It demonstrates exactly what the virus does naturally. It comes, it peaks, and it drops at different places on the globe at different times based on season.

COVID is extremely similar to influenza (size, both airborne respiratory viruses), and the spread around the globe for the last 18 months has followed the Hope-Simpson model remarkably - almost perfectly. This includes the mid-summer peak, primarily in the northern tropical region, but to a lesser degree in the northern temperate. This is what we are seeing now. If you want to see this, go to Worldometer and look at States. Start with Florida (greatest peak) and work your way up I-75 to MI, which is seeing just a bit of a bump. The virus does what it does, then fizzles out.

I had mentioned this would happen in a post about a month or so ago. I was right about the spike, and I was right the media would blame DeSantis' laissez-faire policy. I did not expect the magnitude of the spike, which I will attribute to the higher transmissivity of the Delta, but the patterns are as expected.

On that topic, we are close to the big drop that happened last year, and in India, and in England. I'd guess within about 10 days or so the drop in the US will be clear (already seeing it in some States). And yet again the same thing will happen in all States, regardless of their NPIs, and the media will have to quickly deflect from Florida-bad talk.

I'll also go out on a limb now, and predict that again we will see another spike in early-November to early January, and there's nothing humankind can do to stop it. I hope to God I'm wrong.

I just don’t see the correlation with latitude. I’ve seen the attempt to overlay graphs and for whatever reason I don’t see it. Covid may have peaks at various times but it has been year round regardless of latitude. Human behaviors have been shown to directly affect covid numbers, because it is a respiratory virus. By nature there must be other people around to transmit the virus. Last summer I remember reading all the Hope Simpson data when I believe you posted it then and I was not convinced. It seemed like a fancy way of saying “virus gonna virus” and our behaviors do not impact it as much. And it doesn’t really hold water for covid as time goes on. Flu goes away for months while covid has been perpetual and seems to withstand varying temperatures better.

However I think it shows how intertwined we are globally. That our behaviors eventually impact those on the other side of the globe. In spite of breakthrough cases this will be proven to be a disease burden driven largely by those without any immunity. We will see breakthrough and repeat cases but the more data accumulated points to the conclusion that the majority of viral load is in those that are unvaccinated without natural immunity.

Predicting a big drop in cases was mentioned in the video principal posted as well which is usually what happens. I’m not so sure it will be in 10 days in this state as I have seen a huge spike the last 3-5 days. But it will happen because people change their behaviors during spikes. Deep down nobody wants this illness and when there are regional spikes people scale back their behaviors. Which to the point of Dr ZDogg is a good reason to not have lockdowns. Human nature takes over…