Covid-19

[Masterofreality]

So while we can talk about how insurance rates are going to skyrocket, nobody is discussing the massive amount of claims that haven’t been filed with insurances because volumes are very low. I will be curious to see this quarter’s revenues for the major insurers. But if hospitals are losing money because they don’t have business, where does all the money go that we are paying our insurers? Food for thought....

It will be interesting to see, but I would expect that when the next policy renewal period comes up, like most insurance plans, the rates will be adjusted based upon the facts in each area. I would submit that the rates may actually decline based upon the lack of payout and the companies have a good cash supply for future payouts, like when auto insurance rates decline in areas where the payout is low, or it may just balance out where rates don't change.

I prefer to be optimistic in this case.

[Muskie in dayton]

Fauci sez this would be a bad idea. A Barber or Masseuse shedding the virus would surely pass it on imho. So I guess if you hell bent on getting sick, go ahead.

Just doing my part to contribute to herd immunity and prevent socio-economic collapse. You’re welcome.

[Masterofreality]

Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:

Model Projection of new Cases per Day (Mitigated) 2,000 on April 17. (Projected peak Today 4/22 shows 1,900 per OSU model)
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 392 33 Probable/Assumed cases today.
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 1380 Monday with 56 probable/assumed- A LOT from the Marion County prison
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 2,882 (up only 103 from yesterday) since reporting began over a month ago. Where are the Marion County cases?
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 880 since reporting began a month ago (up 42from yesterday)
New Deaths today: 53 to 610 total.
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds:2500
Ohio Population; 11.7 million
Note: Marion County has the highest total of cases of any Ohio County- 2137 of which 2104 are from the Marion State Prison, not the general population. Marion County total only increased by 5 cases today so it appears that the blob of cases from the prison has gone. The prison cases were most assuredly NOT factored in to the original models that DeWine has been touting to shut the state down.

So, in summary, the blob of cases that occurred in Marion County did not result in a huge spike in hospitalizations or ICU admits. There were only 392 new cases statewide which is pretty much back to the Pre Marion prison numbers vs a model projection of 1,900 for this date. Amazingly in the face of data to the contrary, the model of cases per day actually increased from w few days ago. DeWine continues to be in bed with Acton and refuses to move off of his rigid timetable with no questioning of the blantantly wrong numbers on the models, meanwhile the economy dies in his state. Incredible.

[Juice]

Today's "Let's do a Reality Check" Report for Ohio:

Model Projection of new Cases per Day (Mitigated) 2,000 on April 17. (Projected peak Today 4/22 shows 1,900 per OSU model)
Today's Actual new reported Cases: 392 33 Probable/Assumed cases today.
Highest Daily Total Increase in cases since report began on 3/9: 1380 Monday with 56 probable/assumed- A LOT from the Marion County prison
Actual TOTAL Hospitalizations: 2,882 (up only 103 from yesterday) since reporting began over a month ago. Where are the Marion County cases?
Actual TOTAL ICU admits: 880 since reporting began a month ago (up 42from yesterday)
New Deaths today: 53 to 610 total.
Total Ohio Hospital Beds: 34,000
Total Ohio ICU Beds:2500
Ohio Population; 11.7 million
Note: Marion County has the highest total of cases of any Ohio County- 2137 of which 2104 are from the Marion State Prison, not the general population. Marion County total only increased by 5 cases today so it appears that the blob of cases from the prison has gone. The prison cases were most assuredly NOT factored in to the original models that DeWine has been touting to shut the state down.

So, in summary, the blob of cases that occurred in Marion County did not result in a huge spike in hospitalizations or ICU admits. There were only 392 new cases statewide which is pretty much back to the Pre Marion prison numbers vs a model projection of 1,900 for this date. Amazingly in the face of data to the contrary, the model of cases per day actually increased from w few days ago. DeWine continues to be in bed with Acton and refuses to move off of his rigid timetable with no questioning of the blantantly wrong numbers on the models, meanwhile the economy dies in his state. Incredible.

They reported this week that unemployment is at 20% and we have another two weeks of this shit. It also seems like Dewine hasn’t been very clear on his reopening plan and hasn’t exactly explained the phases. It appears to me like he is wholly unprepared to give that plan bc he expected he could just keep us lockdown for longer.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Just doing my part to contribute to herd immunity and prevent socio-economic collapse. You’re welcome.

The "herd immunity" that no one has any idea if it even exists or will exist?

[boozehound]

I think at least some of them are. That's where some of this move to slowly re-open things in the next couple of weeks in a lot of states is coming from.

Agreed. I think it also makes sense to start to re-open certain places / things in a careful manner. As long as we can make sure three things happen to the greatest extent possible:

(1) Social Distancing when and where appropriate
(2) Awareness and precautions (frequent hand washing, not touching face, etc.)
(3) Testing and contact tracing confirmed cases

The biggest barrier right now remains our failure to have widespread rapid testing, IMO. That would be a game changer in our efforts to combat this while returning to some level of normalcy.

[Muskie in dayton]

The "herd immunity" that no one has any idea if it even exists or will exist?

Why wouldn’t herd immunity exist?

[boozehound]

Why wouldn’t herd immunity exist?

Because we haven't established that people have immunity for any significant amount of time.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Because we haven't established that people have immunity for any significant amount of time.

Exactly. There is absolutely zero evidence that people who get COVID-19 have any immunity to it after they have recovered. Like I said in my post previously there is hope people who get it build up some immunity. For how long? 3 months? 6months? 12 months? Lifetime? We have no idea.

Also I have heard even if you do get some immunity it may depend on the severity of you symptoms as to how much if any immunity you built up.

But again there have already been some reports that people who have already had, got it again. So who knows?

That is why it is so flawed when people say I just want to get it and be done and have my immunity.

[Muskie in dayton]

Because we haven't established that people have immunity for any significant amount of time.

Man you guys are "glass half-empty" kind of people!

Just because immunity wears off doesn't mean herd immunity can't be achieved. Herd immunity means the disease can no longer be a pandemic with exponential growth. It doesn't mean it's gone forever. The longer the body's immunity lasts, the more effective the herd immunity, just like the more effective the vaccine. Similarly, the most c

ontagious viruses (highest Ro) will require the greatest % of the population with antibodies to achieve herd immunity. It's not an all or none, but

ALL viruses result in herd immunity, in some form.

I'll give you that yes, we don't know how long immunity will last, but since COVID-19 is a coronavirus, is likely to act like other coronaviruses (SARS, MERS), where the bodies immune response has shown to last at least several years. If that were the case, we'll very likely have a vaccine. I'm going to the bank with that.