Covid-19

[xu82]

Same here. Weird to see 4 carts on the same hole. What I don’t understand, you can drive through the neighborhood and see 12 carts in one driveway after a round. SMH...

Call the HOTLINE!!!

[bobbiemcgee]

CDC sez could be worse next winter:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-cdcdirector/

[Muskie in dayton]

CDC sez could be worse next winter:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-cdcdirector/

All the more reason to get things opened up and let this shit run it’s course.

[Lloyd Braun]

I'm not "discounting" anything...except for the prison population being lumped in with the rest of the reported cases. Prisons are very close quarters locations with lots of unsanitary conditions, I believe. To count those cases as the exact same as regular public cases is disingenuous at best, and falsifying the status at worst. I would be interested to see study results as to the amount of other diseases that occur in prisons vs the general open public. I would guess the incidence of occurrence is much higher in prisons across the board. As with other data, we are not getting the level of seriousness in these case numbers. Where are the hospitalizations and ICU admits after these higher prison numbers? Doesn't appear to be happening.

Once again, any defense of the actuals vs the projected models is wrongheaded. I'm assuming that you Lloyd, work in the medical field. I assume as well that you are going to err on the side of conservatism as to the medical side. But that may not be the healthiest thing for society at large, and DeWine's continued tying his actions to these proven faulty models is going to kill this state economically.

Saying that you are not discounting prisons, yet following that up with many reasons why the prison numbers shouldn’t count to support a faulty model is somewhat contradictory to be generous. Frankly, I don’t really care about the models and never have. I think that people like to quantify this and that gets in the way of what is truly important. There was never a way to accurately predict the course of disease burden and there still isn’t. Why is it a big deal if the models are crap? Realistically we know that this a a highly contagious disease that can kill a lot of people. That’s scary and I for one do not want to contract this nor give this to someone else. Both of those things are likely to happen however.

Hospital systems needed time to get prepared and now that they are it is reasonable to start lifting some restrictions. If people continue to be cautious it will certainly temper the inevitable spike that will occur. There is still a LOT of unknown about this and to brush it off because the current measures have worked to minimize ICU admissions seems short sighted. Again I could be wrong but I have seen first hand how nasty this is. I have seen people die that should not be dead. In the words of Walter White, I think it’s best to “tread lightly“...

[xu82]

Saying that you are not discounting prisons, yet following that up with many reasons why the prison numbers shouldn’t count to support a faulty model is somewhat contradictory to be generous. Frankly, I don’t really care about the models and never have. I think that people like to quantify this and that gets in the way of what is truly important. There was never a way to accurately predict the course of disease burden and there still isn’t. Why is it a big deal if the models are crap? Realistically we know that this a a highly contagious disease that can kill a lot of people. That’s scary and I for one do not want to contract this nor give this to someone else. Both of those things are likely to happen however.

Hospital systems needed time to get prepared and now that they are it is reasonable to start lifting some restrictions. If people continue to be cautious it will certainly temper the inevitable spike that will occur. There is still a LOT of unknown about this and to brush it off because the current measures have worked to minimize ICU admissions seems short sighted. Again I could be wrong but I have seen first hand how nasty this is. I have seen people die that should not be dead. In the words of Walter White, I think it’s best to “tread lightly“...

Agreed, emphasis on the old projections is wasted time and seems petty. It IS dangerous, extremely transmissible and potentially deadly. Let’s focus on the here and now, find the best way to move forward and be ready to adapt if needed.

[XU '11]

CDC sez could be worse next winter:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-cdcdirector/

This is the 'Fear Porn' that Bill Maher had a monologue on this week. The direct quote from the CDC director is that "There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through." The headline of "CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating" implies SO much more than that actual quote.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcvIQJ-QurQ

[bleedXblue]

This is the 'Fear Porn' that Bill Maher had a monologue on this week. The direct quote from the CDC director is that "There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through." The headline of "CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating" implies SO much more than that actual quote.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcvIQJ-QurQ

Exactly. The virus wasn't even close to as bad as the "projections".

1. We will be more prepared with PPE
2. Social distancing will be more prevalent
3. Hugging, shaking hands etc will not return until a vaccine is available
4. We will be much closer to a vaccine. November is 7 MONTHS AWAY. A lot can change in 7 months.
5. Lets hope we wont have a repeat of the colossal stupidity on display in NY/NJ with their leadership

[Masterofreality]

Saying that you are not discounting prisons, yet following that up with many reasons why the prison numbers shouldn’t count to support a faulty model is somewhat contradictory to be generous. Frankly, I don’t really care about the models and never have. I think that people like to quantify this and that gets in the way of what is truly important. There was never a way to accurately predict the course of disease burden and there still isn’t. Why is it a big deal if the models are crap? Realistically we know that this a a highly contagious disease that can kill a lot of people. That’s scary and I for one do not want to contract this nor give this to someone else. Both of those things are likely to happen however.

Hospital systems needed time to get prepared and now that they are it is reasonable to start lifting some restrictions. If people continue to be cautious it will certainly temper the inevitable spike that will occur. There is still a LOT of unknown about this and to brush it off because the current measures have worked to minimize ICU admissions seems short sighted. Again I could be wrong but I have seen first hand how nasty this is. I have seen people die that should not be dead. In the words of Walter White, I think it’s best to “tread lightly“...

It's a big deal, not so much medically-other than all the expense that hospitals went to to over-prepare- but the models have been the Bible that Acton and DeWine have been following and what they keep basing their decision on to keep the state shut down. And because they are crap, they have caused overreaction IMO. And DeWine/Acton STILL are using them despite their proven garbage.
See, again Lloyd. You are looking at this strictly from a medical point of view. That's your life. But the rest of us need an economy that works, and to continually base decisions that are killing people's livelihoods on trash data is bad, bad stuff. We're still stuck on this lockdown for at least another week and if Acton has her way, another number of months. It has to end. It is becoming financial suicide.

Finally. I'm sure you've seen "people die" from all sorts of diseases where they maybe shouldn't have- probably the flu or H1N1. But was the entire state and country locked down because of it? Are we just going to stop living life because there might be a disease out there that might kill us. Well, there have been those diseases already and there always will be. Of course, caution should be exercised, but man trying to play God and thinking he can just keep people from dying by wrapping the world in a bubble and tying them down is unrealistic and wrong.

[Smails]

Agreed, emphasis on the old projections is wasted time and seems petty. It IS dangerous, extremely transmissible and potentially deadly. Let’s focus on the here and now, find the best way to move forward and be ready to adapt if needed.

I definitely agree with the last part of your take. We need to be more agile and prepared as data continues to change. Emphasis on older projections might seem petty to some, but when your elected leaders make immediate and hard hitting public policy decisions based on overstated projections I think it's fair to call it into question.

[Lloyd Braun]

It's a big deal, not so much medically-other than all the expense that hospitals went to to over-prepare- but the models have been the Bible that Acton and DeWine have been following and what they keep basing their decision on to keep the state shut down. And because they are crap, they have caused overreaction IMO. And DeWine/Acton STILL are using them despite their proven garbage.
See, again Lloyd. You are looking at this strictly from a medical point of view. That's your life. But the rest of us need an economy that works, and to continually base decisions that are killing people's livelihoods on trash data is bad, bad stuff. We're still stuck on this lockdown for at least another week and if Acton has her way, another number of months. It has to end. It is becoming financial suicide.

Finally. I'm sure you've seen "people die" from all sorts of diseases where they maybe shouldn't have- probably the flu or H1N1. But was the entire state and country locked down because of it? Are we just going to stop living life because there might be a disease out there that might kill us. Well, there have been those diseases already and there always will be. Of course, caution should be exercised, but man trying to play God and thinking he can just keep people from dying by wrapping the world in a bubble and tying them down is unrealistic and wrong.

Sure, people die all the time, the point was that it is not just old folks that are dying from this. I don’t agree with keeping it locked down either as I’ve previously stated, but to say it was an overreaction is impossible to know, because it is likely that we will see a spike in cases. Economic damage is inevitable regardless of restrictions, businesses will continue to suffer once opened.