Covid-19

[MADXSTER]

People out playing football - well that's just stupid. Same folks who probably went on spring break.

The last couple of times I went to Kroger, it was pretty tame. Have been surprised how few people have been there.

Lighter rush hour traffic? It's pretty much next to nil. My normal work drive time is 18 minutes. Now it's 12.

Been to the park a couple of times and yes there may be quite a few people but the only ones close to each other are family members(who are going to be close to each other anyway) ie Mom and Dad and their 3 kids. Everywhere I've gone, I would say that everyone has done a good job of social distancing - work, store, etc. And yes it is a good time to get some projects done around the house. I myself have been doing yard work, put down some mulch and some other fun stuff. I'm way ahead of schedule thus far.

[Muskie in dayton]

Incompetent.

The new peak date is today (April 8) which is about 3-4 weeks off from her original prediction of early May.

Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date:



https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...f-america/ohio

544 projected deaths by August 4.

How about some education before we throw out the baby with the bathwater or crucify someone for making the best public interest decisions possible.

I’ve worked with models a lot in my work; here’s how modeling works:

1. Available data are compiled and evaluated
2. Related factors are established based on the data (e.g., Ro, fatality rate, etc.)
3. Other variables affecting the future changes are estimated, like the impact of social distancing
4. The model is run, and results compared to actual data
5. Factors and variables are adjusted to calibrate to the historical data
6. The model is run for future predictions.
7. After time passes, newly available data is used to refine and re-run the model
8. Repeat 7. as appropriate.

In the case of COVID-19 data, there was little historical data due to the novelty of the virus, and what was available was questionable. So the initial models were weak. That doesn’t mean they were worthless. To make an analogy, it’s like driving through a rainstorm with bad wiper blades. It’s hard to see, so be very cautious, but don’t stop looking out the window!

Acton and DeWine relied on that data - the best available at the time - to make decisions in the best interest of Ohioans by implementing early and rigorous social distancing. Those initial models underestimated the positive impacts of social distancing measures. That’s why we now seeing numbers (cases, deaths) much lower than the original model predictions, and why the newly updated models are forecasting lower numbers. You can look State-by-State and see the more rigorous the social distancing, the greater deviation from the original model (like in Ohio).

For those second guessing the social distancing measures, it’s like taking Tamiflu when the flu is coming on, not getting the flu, then claiming the Tamiflu wasn’t necessary! Keep in mind the sole purpose of social distancing is to prevent the number of cases from exceeding the capacity of the medical system. Doing this greatly lowers deaths due to COVID-19, and collateral deaths related to inability to treat other medical conditions. The actions of DeWine and Acton have done this. They have saved lives, and Ohio is now much closer than many other States to returning to normal.

[xu82]

People out playing football - well that's just stupid. Same folks who probably went on spring break.

The last couple of times I went to Kroger, it was pretty tame. Have been surprised how few people have been there.

Lighter rush hour traffic? It's pretty much next to nil. My normal work drive time is 18 minutes. Now it's 12.

Been to the park a couple of times and yes there may be quite a few people but the only ones close to each other are family members(who are going to be close to each other anyway) ie Mom and Dad and their 3 kids. Everywhere I've gone, I would say that everyone has done a good job of social distancing - work, store, etc. And yes it is a good time to get some projects done around the house. I myself have been doing yard work, put down some mulch and some other fun stuff. I'm way ahead of schedule thus far.

Maybe the only good thing to come of this is we have found what it takes to get Atlanta traffic to a reasonable level: a global pandemic.

Traffic is clearly below typical levels. It’s not even close! The grocery stores also have a fraction of the foot traffic. (I heard somewhere Kroger is going to limit customers per SF, not sure if that has happened yet.) Again, it’s impossible to miss, and half the people are wearing masks. It’s surreal.

Yes, there are clowns out there who are taking this lightly, and that’s not fair to others, especially the healthcare workers.

[bobbiemcgee]

How do you do a model when we've tested .6% of the country?

[Muskie in dayton]

How do you do a model when we've tested .6% of the country?

See steps 1 through 8 in my post above :-). That’s when modeling is useful - if we had all the data we wouldn’t need modeling.

[Nigel Tufnel]

We are smack in the middle of a global pandemic and during the White House briefing today, one of the first questions asked was if our President has seen Tiger King and if he would be willing to pardon Joe Exotic. W. T. F.

I can appreciate levity. But come on...

[GIMMFD]

We are smack in the middle of a global pandemic and during the White House briefing today, one of the first questions asked was if our President has seen Tiger King and if he would be willing to pardon Joe Exotic. W. T. F.

I can appreciate levity. But come on...

But did he say he'd pardon Joe Exotic or not???

[bjf123]

Traffic is clearly below typical levels. It’s not even close! The grocery stores also have a fraction of the foot traffic. (I heard somewhere Kroger is going to limit customers per SF, not sure if that has happened yet.) Again, it’s impossible to miss, and half the people are wearing masks. It’s surreal.

My wife stopped at the Kroger on Cin-Day today and said she saw a sign saying 799 people at a time, but they hadn’t yet started enforcing it.


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[xu82]

My wife stopped at the Kroger on Cin-Day today and said she saw a sign saying 799 people at a time, but they hadn’t yet started enforcing it.


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WOW! Is that a huge Kroger? That sounds like a LOT of people! I suppose that includes staff? I used to go to a HUGE Publix near me almost daily. Lots of elbow room in there these days.

[bjf123]

WOW! Is that a huge Kroger? That sounds like a LOT of people! I suppose that includes staff? I used to go to a HUGE Publix near me almost daily. Lots of elbow room in there these days.

Probably 100,000+ square feet.


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