Covid-19

[xu82]

Lots of things in this thread are making this much more complicated then I think it needs to be. Bottom line is that age is the number one predictor of mortality for this virus.

AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases

80+ years old
21.9%

70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

There's a multiplier that can be added based on comorbidities oh, but these percentages give you the bottom line.

THIS is great info and I believe puts things in perspective. Thank you.

[JTG]

I'm sorry, but I think a Dr. predicting 480,000 deaths is more irresponsible than saying Corona is no big deal. Talk about creating panic.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Haha I wish I was more optimistic about medicine to be honest with you. There are a lot of terrible things going on in medicine right now, not to mention the system itself is very outdated. I could go into a rant about health care but quite frankly it wouldn't do anything, I think unfortunately until more progressive people get into positions like the NBME, as residency directors, etc. then we can change the tune of this weird cult of almost "bullying" that's going on for people. Not to mention the cuts in funding, etc. There may not be systemic changes, but I do want to my part at least to try to be a damn good doctor, and hopefully others can follow suit after that.



So I'm listening to it as we speak, I do think Dr. Osterholm is very legitimate. I also read the CNN link that Lloyd Braun linked, and really I think I'm on the same page as him, however he's just a little cautious about it than I am about it. In the CNN article, he said this: Which still falls in line with the 1-3% risk of fatality I said in the beginning.. and also 20-30x higher than 0.1% is 2-3%.. it's still the same fatality rate. Chance due to chance alone, and he says the fatality rate increases with risk factors (ie where he talks about the elder Chinese men who are smokers). The biggest thing is how underprepared and under-equipped hospitals, etc. are to adequately control this thing, so I agree with him there too. He's basically saying this is the same as a flu outbreak, but will be worse because of inadequate resources across the country, which I whole-heartedly agree with.

I agree with the point that it's basically inevitable now, and that it's most likely going to spread, and he is correct sanitation isn't an end-all game, it definitely won't stop the spread of the virus. The analogy of blowing in the wind is actually a very good analogy, I'm not sure about the 480,000 deaths however. The thing with predicting mortality is that you've never going to be accurate because you can't correctly identify who's going to get infected. Tons of people will get this and recover from it without knowing they've had it, and tons of people will probably die from this. I think he's right in saying be weary, but my opinion is that you should assess your own risks and determine how you want to approach it. If you fall in an older age range, maybe are slightly immunocompromised, or other risk factors, you should take more precaution than say, your average run of the mill 30-40 year old. If anybody is unsure if they have any risk factors or what not and don't want to discuss it in public, feel free to PM me and I can try to help to the best of my ability of course.

I think that Dr. Osterholm is very knowledgable about it, and expressing his concerns about it, and I do believe he's right that it's inevitable, but I fall somewhere between the spectrum of it's nothing to "oh my god board off all of your windows," because in medicine nothing is 100%. Everything varies by case to case, and I think depending on who the person is, is how they kind of express their beliefs on the severity of it. I have plenty of people I know in health care that are frightened, and plenty of people that are very calm about it. My goal here is to just give accurate information to the best of my ability, and try to explain it in a way that can allow each individual to assess their own risks and make their own decisions of course.

Thanks for the response. Very helpful.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I'm sorry, but I think a Dr. predicting 480,000 deaths is more irresponsible than saying Corona is no big deal. Talk about creating panic.

Yeah...it’s scary. I don’t know what to believe at this point. But this guy doesn’t seem like some schmuck trying to sell a book. I could be wrong. No idea.

[Lloyd Braun]

I'm sorry, but I think a Dr. predicting 480,000 deaths is more irresponsible than saying Corona is no big deal. Talk about creating panic.

I thought the same until I did some simple math. Let’s say 5% of the US population gets this infection (which is an underestimate in many projections). That’s 16 million people. 2% mortality is 320,000 deaths. If this thing lasts for months and months that projection isn’t as crazy as it sounds. That said, new cases have tapered off in China so I think those projections are inaccurate if we follow suit and have early diagnosis, containment. So if the panic created results in quicker access to tests and treatment I don’t see a down side...

[scoscox]

I thought the same until I did some simple math. Let’s say 5% of the US population gets this infection (which is an underestimate in many projections). That’s 16 million people. 2% mortality is 320,000 deaths. If this thing lasts for months and months that projection isn’t as crazy as it sounds. That said, new cases have tapered off in China so I think those projections are inaccurate if we follow suit and have early diagnosis, containment. So if the panic created results in quicker access to tests and treatment I don’t see a down side...

hasn't the mortality rate seriously dropped off with increased cases in most countries? from what i've seen in places like south korea, the mortality rate hasn't been much higher than the typical flu. a lot of the high numbers are because the testing hasn't been reliable and tons of cases go undiagnosed

[Muskie in dayton]

I seriously doubt they will cancel it. They may postpone it, but they won’t cancel it.

Postpone it for how long? There’s no reason to think the virus is going away anytime soon.

[Muskie in dayton]

hasn't the mortality rate seriously dropped off with increased cases in most countries? from what i've seen in places like south korea, the mortality rate hasn't been much higher than the typical flu. a lot of the high numbers are because the testing hasn't been reliable and tons of cases go undiagnosed

You’re correct that mortality estimates have dropped. I’ve seen as low as 0.6 in South Korea, and 0.4 in some of the Chinese provinces affected later, from what I’ve read. Still it’s several times greater than the flu, but certainly not Armageddon.

[JTG]

I heard some Dr earlier this week say that the big difference in the US is living conditions. Whereas in China, Korea and Italy people live in very close proximity to one another. Kind of like sardines. In the US most are in single family homes, or not nearly as close together as those countries. Also why no news from the rest of Europe, Australia, Africa, So America ?

[Muskie in dayton]

I heard some Dr earlier this week say that the big difference in the US is living conditions. Whereas in China, Korea and Italy people live in very close proximity to one another. Kind of like sardines. In the US most are in single family homes, or not nearly as close together as those countries. Also why no news from the rest of Europe, Australia, Africa, So America ?

That would certainly explain a higher transmission rate in those countries, as would the fact that it was affecting some of them before it was known. The early estimate of transmission rate was 2.4 (one person infects 2.4 others) vs. 1.3 for the flu. So accounting for the above, the transmission rate in the US could be similar to the flu.