Path to the dance

[MHettel]

Ok, there will inevitably be a response like “none of this matters, just win”. And that’s a viable response…..basically today only.

We’re 5-5 with 10 games left. So yeah, “just win out” put us at 15-5 and we’re a lock. But are you betting on that? I’m not.

We’re gonna take some losses down the stretch. And the more we take, the more “help” we’re gonna need.

I’m just trying to figure out exactly what “help” looks like.

Marquette and SJU have commanding 8-1 records to lead the conference. They both play today and appear to be favorites (SJU vs GT, MU vs Butler). Absent a complete meltdown, these teams are dancing. We split with MU and lost 2X to the Johnies.

We’re actually competing against Creighton (7-2) UConn (6-3) Nova (5-5), and GT (4-5). I include GT but not Providence because we have a loss vs GT and another would give them the upper hand in the event of a tie.

I’m assuming DePaul, SHU, and Butler are out of the mix entirely.

Peeking at the teaming matchups for the teams we are competing with:

First of all, let’s just root for Marquette and SJU, period. We cannot reasonably catch them and they can assist us by beating some of these teams in the middle of the pack. Creighton and UConn are positioned “above” us in the pack, which would make us 5th in a conference that is likely to be 4 bids, with an equal chance of getting 3 as it is getting 5. Objective #1 is to pass UConn or Creighton. Root for one and against the other? Is it that simple? Well, rooting against Creighton is.

We play them twice and we need wins and we need them to have losses. In addition to us, their remaining schedule includes Marquette, UConn and SJU, (in a row) but that’s it. Assume we beat them 2x and they take care of business against the bottom and they would sit at 13 wins before playing UConn, SJU & MU. If they win just one of those they are likely in with 14 wins. It is ESSENTIAL that Creighton takes a bad loss or 3 down the stretch. But NOT from Nova who is still in the mix. Root AGAINST Creighton, except against Nova. If we don’t win both games vs Creighton, at that point root for them against UConn.

So let’s go to Nova. We beat them once, and need to do it again. Nova has remaining games against CU, SJU, UConn, and MU. Also, they play GT, so that’s a game we have to pick a side for. Let’s have Creighton beat Nova and Nova beat UConn. And also GT beat Nova. Assume SJU and Marquette pin them with an L. It’s essential that we beat them. They finish with 10 wins and have zero shot given their non-con performance. Actually maybe we want Nova to beat Creighton. If all else falls into place, they only 11 wins and that not enough. And an extra loss for Creighton can’t hurt. But we need Nova OUT. And we also MUST beat them.

Let’s look at GT. First of all, we need to beat them. Again, we can’t be 0-2 against a fellow bubble team and expect to make the dance while they don’t. GT is 4-5 though, so we’ve got box out position right now. They have remaining difficult games against SJU, Creighton, UConn, Marquette and Nova. There are 5 easy wins out there for them which gets them to 9 before the 5 I mention plus us. They win 3 of 6 of the difficult games and they are in the discussion. I already have GT beating Nova. Let’s do our job and get the win vs GT and then hope SJU and MU do as well. GT could wind up on the bubble still, but it feels like we could be positioned on the better part of the bubble.

UConn. Can they miss the dance? They are 6-3 with 4 games remains against SJU and MU. They play Creighton too. It’s actually in our interest for UConn to beat Creighton unless we lose to Creighton. We might need UConn to take a bad loss. But not against Nova or GT.

I’m a lot more sober after having done this. It’s very muddled. We not a 5 bid league and we tied for 5th. Of course winning out would solve all our problems, but it’s not reasonable. We definitely have the easiest schedule remaining of the potential dancers. We can probably take 2 losses, but it feels like the 2 Creighton games are must wins. probably Nova and GT as well. That’s our next 3 opponents.

Will be interesting to see how it evolves over the second half of the conference slate

[OTRMUSKIE]

I think 21-11 gets us in. So 8-2 and then a miss in BEAST puts us at 21-11 13-8 which should be enough. Loss at Creighton and prob Nova and then win remaining. That is very doable and should be enough but last year St John’s thought that too.

[xubrew]

If X lands on the bubble, it's unlikely that any other bubble team would have two wins that come anywhere close to the caliber of at Marquette and UConn at home. In the last seven days Xavier has gone from outside the bubble to inside of it, and will likely remain there so long as they can hold serve. In other words, avoid losing to teams outside the bubble.

While the loss at Saint John's did suck, and it REALLY did because I cannot fucking stand Rick Pitino, Xavier still looked very much like an NCAA Tournament team in that game. For much of the season they haven't. Whatever needed fixing seems to have gotten fixed.

[Xavier]

I’ve seen a few “bracketologist” suggest big east might have 5 in play, actually.

Bartorvik breakdown: currently has us finishing 11-9 (losing at Creighton, at nova, at butler. Even though projected to win the others, it must be assuming a loss somewhere to finish 11-9?) and being the 2nd team out. But if you modify it:
If we only lose those 3 games: we’d be in at 12-8 46% of the time.

Flip one of them- we’d be a lock at 13-7. It’s why I think if we beat Creighton Wednesday we are going to be in pretty good shape. I think we will end up beating nova or butler on the road. And I think we win out at home.

[xubrew]

I’ve seen a few “bracketologist” suggest big east might have 5 in play, actually.

Bartorvik breakdown: currently has us finishing 11-9 (losing at Creighton, at nova, at butler. Even though projected to win the others, it must be assuming a loss somewhere to finish 11-9?) and being the 2nd team out. But if you modify it:
If we only lose those 3 games: we’d be in at 12-8 46% of the time.

Flip one of them- we’d be a lock at 13-7. It’s why I think if we beat Creighton Wednesday we are going to be in pretty good shape. I think we will end up beating nova or butler on the road. And I think we win out at home.

Seven days ago I probably would not have agreed. But today I agree completely.

Not to state what's overly obvious, but Xavier is playing tons better!! They followed up a stretch where we had lost six out of seven, and have now won four out of five with wins over UConn and Marquette during that stretch, and the only loss was in OT on the road at Saint John's.

[Xville]

Go 8-2. Win either @nova or @creighton to pick up one more q1 and not lose to DePaul, seton hall. That would do it from everything I’ve seen. Hopefully, UConn gets mcneeley back and starts winning again to make that a q1.

[MHettel]

Go 8-2. Win either @nova or @creighton to pick up one more q1 and not lose to DePaul, seton hall. That would do it from everything I’ve seen. Hopefully, UConn gets mcneeley back and starts winning again to make that a q1.

But if UConn and Creighton keep winning, we’re 5th. Is this a 5 bid conference?

I wouldn’t feel confident on selection Sunday…

[Xville]

Other than UConn winning enough to get back to a q1, I don’t care what anyone else does in the conference in terms of what it means to x.

Well I take that back. I don’t want a bid stealer winning the be tournament either

[xukeith]

I think X needs another quality win either at Creighton or at Nova.
No bad losses help too.

[waggy]

If X finishes 4th in the BE, which I think is reasonable, they would play the 5th place team in the BE tourney. In that case it'll be either UConn or Creighton.