Wondering what everyone's thoughts are on the remaining season and projecting what this team can accomplish moving forward? I'm going with the assumption that Free is out for the remainder of the season, even though there have been rumblings that may not be the case.
I think the best way to project forward is to see what has occurred up until this point.
The Good:
- Unlike last year, no losses in buy games. X had a Quad 3 and Quad 4 loss last year by this time.
- There seems to be more talent on this team. Swain has shown flashes of progression X got hunter back. Dayvion, Conwell, Foster are all performing moderately well.
- They have been in every game that they lost. No absolute blowouts to UCONN, Marquette up to this point. A few bounces, a few calls here and there, and this team could be in a lot better position.
The Bad:
- Moral victories while nice, X hasn't gotten it done in Q1 games.
- Frontcourt obviously still an issue. Some of that is injuries, some of that is misses in the portal (Hugley)
Moving Forward:
- There is talent on this team. I don't think that can really be disputed. However, It's not distributed very well as there are still some glaring holes in the frontcourt, so an off shooting night is a recipe for a loss.
- The Big East is not as good top to bottom as it has been the last few years. UCONN and Marquette are still very very good, but not as good as they have been the last few years, and the middle, backend of this conference all have pretty major flaws.
So where does that leave X?
With the remaining schedule, there is a path forward to get 12 wins. I'm not predicting that, but the remaining schedule provides an opportunity to do that. Here is how I see it happening if they accomplish it:
Seton Hall W
@ Gtown W
St. Johns L
@ Depaul W
Villanova W
@ Marquette L
@ St. Johns L
UCONN L
@ Creighton L
Gtown W
@ Villanova W
@ Providence W
Depaul W
Butler W
@ Seton Hall W
Creighton W
@ Butler L
Providence W
Will this happen? It's improbable, but ya never know and that's why they play the games. The schedule gets a little easier the next few games, then there is a brutal four game stretch, and then it gets easier again at the end. I don't know for sure, but the schedule opportunity seems to be close to what it was last year. If they can survive the first half of conference play and not completely blow themselves out of it, then there is opportunity to do something in February to make this interesting.
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Thread: Thoughts on the remaining season
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12-27-2024, 10:12 AM #1
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Thoughts on the remaining season
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12-27-2024, 10:16 AM #2
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I think 12-8 is possible. Would probably still need a solid showing in NYC at 20-13.
Without any signature wins so far, I'm afraid this team will have to win 15 in conference to get at-large consideration, and I don't think that's realistic.
The resume is not good, and the metrics currently suck.
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12-27-2024, 10:24 AM #3
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It would take a lot more research to do so, but I wonder if what occurs above with my predictions where that would put X as far as at large consideration? With current metrics here is what it would look like resume wise:
20 wins
3 Quad 1 wins
No Quad 3 or 4 losses
12-8 in conference
Brew may have some insight as to what that would look like for at large consideration.
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12-27-2024, 11:25 AM #4
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12-8 in conference would probably have us in the PIG mix I think. Personally think 12-8 is about the ceiling but would feel like they have a solid shot at the tournament if so. I think they will snag one from St Johns.
Problem is with the imbalance schedule, we’d have to 8-1 to finish. 4 of those on the road. It’s a tall task for this team to do that. Once Freemantle went down I put the hope of making the tournament out the window. Take it game by game and if we start to go on a run then maybe reevaluate tournament chances.
The South Carolina win might start to help as the season goes on, too.Last edited by Xavier; 12-27-2024 at 11:28 AM.
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12-27-2024, 11:45 AM #5
Unless Free comes back at full strength, I think that this team will have a hard time going .500 in the BE. Lack of size and depth in the front court will be exploited by every school they face.
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12-27-2024, 12:02 PM #6
I had my doubts that this was a tournament caliber team BEFORE Free went down.
The frontcourt issues were obvious even with Free. Hugley may be the biggest surprise that I can recall in 20 years and obviously not in a good way. Jerome is very limited offensively and he’s putting it out there for all to see. Swain is a plus on defense and dangerous in transition but pretty useless in the half court offense.
Maddox and Green had not done anything up to that point. Dayvion doesn’t seem to know when to assert himself more. Foster is decent but more like Nate Johnson where he doesn’t ball handle at all.
I expected a lot more of this team. Like a deep NCAA run. The Free injury will likely provide “cover” for any criticism that is due in my opinion.
I agree that 12-8 put us in the discussion, but we also need some separation in the league standing. If we’re bunched up in the top 5 with SJU and Creighton also at 12-8, we are likely at the bottom of that group. It would take 5 bids for the BE for us to get in under that circumstance. I just don’t see it.
With that said, I really don’t see us with 12 wins. More like 8-10 in my opinion.
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12-27-2024, 01:59 PM #7
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How about if Freemantle comes back to play around 1/25 or so? Last 10 games on the schedule , I see X going 7-3 or 8-2.
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12-27-2024, 04:25 PM #8
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This season seems to have become cautionary tale about relying so much on the portal. Even after Traore went down we had on paper anyway, a talented squad. Still as the above post points out, none of our players has, so far, played to expectations. It isn't just the Bigs or even just the new guys. Today, I have to conclude this roster is a fail. Perhaps something occurs that changes the chemistry of this team but having watched them for what, a third of the season, I don't see cause for optimism.
You can't know how any team is going to perform before the season starts and this team, perhaps because so many of the pieces were new and had not played together, it just hasn't jelled. As Hettel said, it isn't just a reflection of injuries. Looks like another disappointing season and, because I had such high expectations, the disappointment is particularly heavy.
I'm in the XUGRAD80 camp. Just don't see us better than .500 in conference and I don't even think that will be easy
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12-27-2024, 07:22 PM #9
I think it has become more of a cautionary tale of not getting caught up in preseason hype and hope.
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12-27-2024, 11:02 PM #10
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I think teams that bring in as much as we did and actually have success are a bit of a unicorn. Most probably don't, the best success in 1-2 transfers and incoming freshmen. You need guys who stay to establish a core culture within the program to have true success. I think back to a Miami team and ISU teams that had success with tons of transfer, but now are having issues. Teams get lucky, but it eventually catches up.
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