Roster Swap Out...

[MHettel]

I thought it would be interesting to swap out the guys we just lost with the guys we just brought in. We basically have 3 guys returning. So lets remove the guys that left and add the new guys and recalc our per game statistical averages. I will normalize the minutes if necessary. I'll also adjust for games played and injuries. And then I'll add back Free and Hunter using their stats from the prior year

Guys lost: Q, Des, Abo, Lazar, Gytis, Ciani, Nzeh, Craft (didnt Play), Ducharme

total Lost: 4599 minutes, 646/1484 FG (43.5%), 156/445 3PT (35.1%), 377/532 FT (72.1%), 277 OReb, 636 Dreb, 313 Asst, 267 TO, 135 STL, 89 Blk.

Guys Gained: Free, Hunter, Foster, Maddox, Conwell, Hugley, Traore

total Gained: 5978 minutes, 976-1965 FG (49.7%), 259/680 3Pt (38.1%), 576/736 FT (78.3%), 314 Oreb, 1017 Dreb, 409 Asst, 358 TOs, 180 STL, 76 Blks.


Ok, so you cant replace 4599 lost minutes with 5978 replacement minutes. And you cant just scale it back because some new players didnt play every game. The idea here is to project what may have happened if we had all these new (or returning from injury) guys healthly.

So Ill calculate per game averages for the new guys, THEN scale it down to replace the exact number of minutes we lost.

Here is the Punchline.

total Gained: 4599 minutes,769 /1545 FG (49.8%), 197/594 3Pt (37.8%), 446/574 FT (77.7%), 234 OReb, 806 DReb, 321 Asst, 287 TOs, 138 Stls, 60 Blks.

Kinda surprising to be honest. This approach would suggest that we would generally shoot better from both 2 & 3 pt range and take more 3s. We'd take more Free throws as well, and hit them more often. Offensive rebounding would drop a little, but defensive rebounding would go up. Net rebounding would be about 127, so that great. Assists are up by 3%, and TOs are up by 7%. Steals are basically flat, but blocks are down by 33%.

Overall, Scoring is...up 11.65 points a game. i did the math twice. The rest of the stats dont matter. If you replace poor shooting with better shooting and replace guys that took less shots per minutes with guys that took more shots per minute the numbers work. This team is built to score.

Realistically, we will experience about 1/2 of this increase. Expect scoring to be about 82 PPG next year. This will be pace driven, so all other stats (rebs, assists, TOs, etc) will reflect the the increase in pace.

I like it. Would hope we utilize the depth.


,

[xukeith]

I thought it would be interesting to swap out the guys we just lost with the guys we just brought in. We basically have 3 guys returning. So lets remove the guys that left and add the new guys and recalc our per game statistical averages. I will normalize the minutes if necessary. I'll also adjust for games played and injuries. And then I'll add back Free and Hunter using their stats from the prior year

Guys lost: Q, Des, Abo, Lazar, Gytis, Ciani, Nzeh, Craft (didnt Play), Ducharme

total Lost: 4599 minutes, 646/1484 FG (43.5%), 156/445 3PT (35.1%), 377/532 FT (72.1%), 277 OReb, 636 Dreb, 313 Asst, 267 TO, 135 STL, 89 Blk.

Guys Gained: Free, Hunter, Foster, Maddox, Conwell, Hugley, Traore

total Gained: 5978 minutes, 976-1965 FG (49.7%), 259/680 3Pt (38.1%), 576/736 FT (78.3%), 314 Oreb, 1017 Dreb, 409 Asst, 358 TOs, 180 STL, 76 Blks.


Ok, so you cant replace 4599 lost minutes with 5978 replacement minutes. And you cant just scale it back because some new players didnt play every game. The idea here is to project what may have happened if we had all these new (or returning from injury) guys healthly.

So Ill calculate per game averages for the new guys, THEN scale it down to replace the exact number of minutes we lost.

Here is the Punchline.

total Gained: 4599 minutes,769 /1545 FG (49.8%), 197/594 3Pt (37.8%), 446/574 FT (77.7%), 234 OReb, 806 DReb, 321 Asst, 287 TOs, 138 Stls, 60 Blks.

Kinda surprising to be honest. This approach would suggest that we would generally shoot better from both 2 & 3 pt range and take more 3s. We'd take more Free throws as well, and hit them more often. Offensive rebounding would drop a little, but defensive rebounding would go up. Net rebounding would be about 127, so that great. Assists are up by 3%, and TOs are up by 7%. Steals are basically flat, but blocks are down by 33%.

Overall, Scoring is...up 11.65 points a game. i did the math twice. The rest of the stats dont matter. If you replace poor shooting with better shooting and replace guys that took less shots per minutes with guys that took more shots per minute the numbers work. This team is built to score.

Realistically, we will experience about 1/2 of this increase. Expect scoring to be about 82 PPG next year. This will be pace driven, so all other stats (rebs, assists, TOs, etc) will reflect the the increase in pace.

I like it. Would hope we utilize the depth.


,

Nice stats.
Is this the first time you have done comparing rosters from 1 year to another?
I would be curious if there is a corrrelation.
Also, quality of opponents would be a factor to the "improving" numbers.

[webxu]

Do you add a Big East factor to scale back the incoming numbers? Tougher conference you would expect a regression even if its a slight one.

[bleedXblue]

Do you add a Big East factor to scale back the incoming numbers? Tougher conference you would expect a regression even if its a slight one.

guys like Olivari and Boum didnt regress? not saying it cant happen........

[bleedXblue]

Do you add a Big East factor to scale back the incoming numbers? Tougher conference you would expect a regression even if its a slight one.

guys like Olivari and Boum didnt regress? not saying it cant happen........

[MHettel]

Nice stats.
Is this the first time you have done comparing rosters from 1 year to another?
I would be curious if there is a corrrelation.
Also, quality of opponents would be a factor to the "improving" numbers.

No, I’ve never done this before.

But if you think about it, it’s really the first time we had such massive turnover where all the new guys are coming in with an actual statistical “history”. In the past it would be one or 2 experienced guys then several freshmen. Can’t really do it with that group.

[MHettel]

Do you add a Big East factor to scale back the incoming numbers? Tougher conference you would expect a regression even if its a slight one.

I didn’t apply the BE factor per se, but I did cut the calculated scoring increase of 11.65 in half to about 6. No real science or analysis to support that, other than the fact that teams don’t score 88 points a game, but high octane teams can score just over 80.

[Xville]

Bama scored over 90 a game last year. That is just insane lol. Zags and Illini scored just below 85. I think with this offense and the pace that Miller wants to play at, that's certainly attainable. Last year scored 81.5...I think this offense should be better--I think the guards are just a bit more dynamic overall. I wouldn't be surprised to see the offense in the top 5 for next year.

[Xavier]

Sean emphasized wanting more shooting and more rebounding and appears to have both. If the defense isn’t going to be good, at least on paper, then attack the boards hard and eliminate second chance points.

[webxu]

guys like Olivari and Boum didnt regress? not saying it cant happen........

That much is true, but i would certainly say guys like Abou, Welage, Jason Carter, Ben Stanley, Bryce Moore and even Kunkel to a degree did, so I would have to think there would be a some overall stat decline when you up the competition.