College Basketball Transfer Portal 2024-2025

[Xville]

Maybe Izzo is the only coach out there not working the portal during the tournament. that could be the key to making 8 Final Fours.

Oh, and BEYOND that did you hear his comments about the VERY FIRST THING that the portal guys ask about is what kind of "package" can they get.

But I'll take YOUR word for it that relationships matter more.

When’s the last time izzo made the final four? Five years ago before nil and the portal? I’ll hang up and listen.

Never said relationships matter more. But go ahead and put words in my mouth. Narratives are hard

[A Fan]

Maybe Izzo is the only coach out there not working the portal during the tournament. that could be the key to making 8 Final Fours.

Oh, and BEYOND that did you hear his comments about the VERY FIRST THING that the portal guys ask about is what kind of "package" can they get.

But I'll take YOUR word for it that relationships matter more.

Did I hear Izzo correctly that the “ high school kids” and I assume he is talking 4 and 5 stars are asking triple the amount of NIL money than the same cohort was asking last year? If yes, the money may now be “ the “ priority for them. . And yes, he said the Portal guys just say “ hello” and ask for their package. So much for the tour of the campus.

[Xavier]

I'm kinda bored in this dead period. Wanna rehash anything? Lazar's "potential" and why I'm the only idiot that didn't see and why he's declared for the portal but cant be found? Or maybe the bang up job Miller did by doing NOTHING with the roster his first year and then feel all the pain this year because of it?

The roster you said was absolutely loaded? That’s the one you wanted him to gut? Interesting.

[MHettel]

Did I hear Izzo correctly that the “ high school kids” and I assume he is talking 4 and 5 stars are asking triple the amount of NIL money than the same cohort was asking last year? If yes, the money may now be “ the “ priority for them. . And yes, he said the Portal guys just say “ hello” and ask for their package. So much for the tour of the campus.

The kids themselves though, refer to that as having a "relationship."

[MHettel]

The roster you said was absolutely loaded? That’s the one you wanted him to gut? Interesting.

I dont think I wanted Miller to gut the roster. But Miles, Tandy and Edwards all transferred the following year anyway without having contributed much in Millers first year. So he could have sped that along....

[xuphan]

Things will heat up when the final horn sounds on Monday night, and when the current dead period expires.

If true that coach Miller is out of the country, I expect a quiet weekend on the commitment front.

What an odd time to be out of the country. You would think after the portal is over would be a better time. Kids are still committing even though it is a dead period. Dane Danja committed to Memphis today and NC State got the Louisville kid to commit. Seems with a roster that needs a major rebuild he would be still be in town. The nerves continue to rise each day that passes looking at what our front court currently looks like.

[Jumpin_Jamal_Forever]

Did I hear Izzo correctly that the “ high school kids” and I assume he is talking 4 and 5 stars are asking triple the amount of NIL money than the same cohort was asking last year? If yes, the money may now be “ the “ priority for them. . And yes, he said the Portal guys just say “ hello” and ask for their package. So much for the tour of the campus.

I wonder if we are approaching a top in the NIL market. Perhaps there is a parallel between what is going on with NIL and the concept of a financial market bubble. For example, a stock market top, like the dot com bubble, started with a displacement to the existing order, the introduction of technology----the internet. The introduction and adoption of the internet fueled a rise in "dot.com" stocks. In the late nineties and early 2000, every publicly traded business that adopted a website saw a huge valuation increase. The displacement of traditional sales channels by the internet fueled a euphoric rise in internet stock prices. They kept going up and up, ignoring traditional methods of valuation and seeming like they would never come down. Everybody had to get in on the action. But, at the top, everybody was in, including those with poor, unsustainable business models. That is when some insiders started bailing out of the stocks---selling into hot, frothy markets. They were the "smart money".

Then came the bust when it became obvious some equities were hugely, hugely overvalued, sometimes simply because they had introduced a website. Anybody remember Pets.com? At that point, the market crashed and stayed down for a couple of years. The same chain of events occurred with the subprime crisis and then the home exercise craze brought on by Covid. Peloton anyone? In each case, the valuation of some businesses exploded upward very quickly, fueled by some new way of doing business, some basic change in the rulebook, only to crash within a short time period.

Perhaps that is a model for what is now happening in the portal and NIL. We had a couple of key rule changes which displaced the prior way college basketball conducted itself. That has led very quickly to a mushrooming in the number of kids transferring and in demands for NIL packages. This type of activity has exploded in just the last couple of years.

What is a sign this might all be topping out? Well, maybe it is when coaches start bailing (Jay Wright, Nick Saban) or when team sponsors, like universities, throw up their hands and stop sponsoring basketball teams. My own view is that if and when annual turnover approaches a very high level, say 75% and does that every year, the fans stop paying attention. They just lose interest-----a condition Xuperman labeled "looming discomfort" in an earlier post and one for which he was attacked by those on this board who view the portal and NIL as a victory for the college athlete and anyone who questions the current state of college hoops as a mossbacked archconservative.

I don't know but just seems like this cannot go on, as it is proceeding today, without one or more of the parties, players, coaches, universities or fans throwing in the towel. It is probably not going to be the players as they are the prime beneficiaries. On the other hand, both the dot.com and subprime bubbles went on for a few years. and so may this. But, in the end, I think we see a crash of some kind in NIL values.

[MHettel]

I wonder if we are approaching a top in the NIL market. Perhaps there is a parallel between what is going on with NIL and the concept of a financial market bubble. For example, a stock market top, like the dot com bubble, started with a displacement to the existing order, the introduction of technology----the internet. The introduction and adoption of the internet fueled a rise in "dot.com" stocks. In the late nineties and early 2000, every publicly traded business that adopted a website saw a huge valuation increase. The displacement of traditional sales channels by the internet fueled a euphoric rise in internet stock prices. They kept going up and up, ignoring traditional methods of valuation and seeming like they would never come down. Everybody had to get in on the action. But, at the top, everybody was in, including those with poor, unsustainable business models. That is when some insiders started bailing out of the stocks---selling into hot, frothy markets. They were the "smart money".

Then came the bust when it became obvious some equities were hugely, hugely overvalued, sometimes simply because they had introduced a website. Anybody remember Pets.com? At that point, the market crashed and stayed down for a couple of years. The same chain of events occurred with the subprime crisis and then the home exercise craze brought on by Covid. Peloton anyone? In each case, the valuation of some businesses exploded upward very quickly, fueled by some new way of doing business, some basic change in the rulebook, only to crash within a short time period.

Perhaps that is a model for what is now happening in the portal and NIL. We had a couple of key rule changes which displaced the prior way college basketball conducted itself. That has led very quickly to a mushrooming in the number of kids transferring and in demands for NIL packages. This type of activity has exploded in just the last couple of years.

What is a sign this might all be topping out? Well, maybe it is when coaches start bailing (Jay Wright, Nick Saban) or when team sponsors, like universities, throw up their hands and stop sponsoring basketball teams. My own view is that if and when annual turnover approaches a very high level, say 75% and does that every year, the fans stop paying attention. They just lose interest-----a condition Xuperman labeled "looming discomfort" in an earlier post and one for which he was attacked by those on this board who view the portal and NIL as a victory for the college athlete and anyone who questions the current state of college hoops as a mossbacked archconservative.

I don't know but just seems like this cannot go on, as it is proceeding today, without one or more of the parties, players, coaches, universities or fans throwing in the towel. It is probably not going to be the players as they are the prime beneficiaries. On the other hand, both the dot.com and subprime bubbles went on for a few years. and so may this. But, in the end, I think we see a crash of some kind in NIL values.

There are a few parallels. Some teams certainly were early adopters of the Portal and NIL and built competitive teams before the rest of the crowd figured out the playbook. Thats the "smart money" you referred to.

Coach Cal had a fairly dominant run for a stretch of the last 15 years, bringing in elite freshmen than could beat any team that was built the "traditional" way with a mix of Freshmen, Sophs, Juniors, and Seniors. But for the last 4 years, we been seeing teams where they play almost exclusively upperclassmen and 5th year guys, many via the portal. A bunch of elite freshmen just dont have the same advantage against a roster that averages 22 years old and has played 700 career college games. Do you think Cal is going to continue to rely exclusively on Freshmen after the last few years have gone for him in the tourney? I think hes going to fir up the NIL engine and grab the elite portal talent to mix in with a couple Mickey D freshmen.

maybe you are right about the bubble, but we arent NEAR the end of it. I think it gets 5X worse before it gets better.

XU is trying to get NIL money by "passing the hat" to our 20,000 alum or whatever we have. UK wont be doing that. UK will line up national sponsorships with leading brands that want to be associated with UK and its winning tradition. They money will be coming from corporations, not individuals. UK will have a "Taco Bell Opportunity" worth $1M that is earmarked for whoever Cal wants to put in there. The kid that gets it ONLY gets it if he goes to UK. This is where the big money and blue blood brands will create the separation.

What we see happening is ALWAYS what was going to happen. But now its real. And its gaining speed not losing it.

(In spite of all this, I will note however, that Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Apple kind of rule the world. So did the tech bubble really pop?)

[Xville]

Lol so far off on cal and uk it’s not even funny. Check out his roster that lost to St. Peter’s and last year. Mostly juniors and seniors leading the way. Narratives are hard.

The rest is beyond ridiculous it’s not even worth commenting on.

[Xville]

What an odd time to be out of the country. You would think after the portal is over would be a better time. Kids are still committing even though it is a dead period. Dane Danja committed to Memphis today and NC State got the Louisville kid to commit. Seems with a roster that needs a major rebuild he would be still be in town. The nerves continue to rise each day that passes looking at what our front court currently looks like.

Worrying just for the sake of worrying. There are a ton of teams in the same boat as pointed out earlier in this thread.

Louisville has three guys on their roster. I don’t understand the daily worrying.

Some of you all need to pop a few ritalin