Xavier: A Glimpse Into the Future

[XUGRAD80]

Dash…..casual people are tuning in to the EVENT, not the game. Oh sure, you have fans of certain schools and they want to watch THEIR school play. But 1/2 those schools are gone after the 1st round, and people will still tune in after their team is eliminated. A lot of people really don’t care who’s playing, they are watching an event. Casual college BB fans who don’t have a dog in the hunt, find one, and will follow that dog for as long as it remains. If there is a 64 team super football conference, that’s plenty of teams to have a “March Madness”. Sure you’ll have teams with losing records and no chance of winning the championship in the tourney, but we have that already. By the 2nd weekend we would still have some underdogs in the field and causal viewers (and betters) wouldn’t care if it says Northwest Iowa or just plain Iowa on their jerseys.

But as I said in my last post…..I really think that the breakaway group is going to be for football only. The major football schools are the ones with the real power, not the NCAA. They are going to tell the NCAA how things are going to be set up. The NCAA needs them, more than they need the NCAA, so they NCAA is going to do what they want it to. They want to pay players directly, they don’t like the NIL because it makes the coaches less powerful. It puts power into the hands of agents and players. They are going to convince the powers that be that the only way to control things is for them to be in control. The really powerful coaches…Sabin, Kelly, Fischer, etc. are going to propose a new NCAA division for football only. It will be one that has the players sign contracts that makes them employees, and they are going to pay those players directly. TV is going to back it financially. As part of their compensation, the players will receive tuition, room, and board……along with a salary and bonuses, just like the NFL. The other sports, including BB, will remain as they are as far as affiliation is concerned. So March Madness will remain as is. Why change it? It’s very successful financially. The NCAA wants and needs the revenue it makes from it. But football has outgrown the NCAA and frankly doesn’t need or want it any longer. Football, and the money it generates is what is driving all of this. The question is….who is going to control that money? Answer….who’s more well known and powerful, Sabin or the president of the NCAA? (I can’t even recall his name)

[sirthought]

Some of these ideas you guys sprout here sound crazy to me.

Remember these institutions run on taxpayer dollars.

[XUBison]

Some of these ideas you guys sprout here sound crazy to me.

Remember these institutions run on taxpayer dollars.

This is exactly right – thank you for making this point. The politicians will get involved, for better or worse.

[xudash]

Dash…..casual people are tuning in to the EVENT, not the game. Oh sure, you have fans of certain schools and they want to watch THEIR school play. But 1/2 those schools are gone after the 1st round, and people will still tune in after their team is eliminated. A lot of people really don’t care who’s playing, they are watching an event. Casual college BB fans who don’t have a dog in the hunt, find one, and will follow that dog for as long as it remains. If there is a 64 team super football conference, that’s plenty of teams to have a “March Madness”. Sure you’ll have teams with losing records and no chance of winning the championship in the tourney, but we have that already. By the 2nd weekend we would still have some underdogs in the field and causal viewers (and betters) wouldn’t care if it says Northwest Iowa or just plain Iowa on their jerseys.

But as I said in my last post…..I really think that the breakaway group is going to be for football only. The major football schools are the ones with the real power, not the NCAA. They are going to tell the NCAA how things are going to be set up. The NCAA needs them, more than they need the NCAA, so they NCAA is going to do what they want it to. They want to pay players directly, they don’t like the NIL because it makes the coaches less powerful. It puts power into the hands of agents and players. They are going to convince the powers that be that the only way to control things is for them to be in control. The really powerful coaches…Sabin, Kelly, Fischer, etc. are going to propose a new NCAA division for football only. It will be one that has the players sign contracts that makes them employees, and they are going to pay those players directly. TV is going to back it financially. As part of their compensation, the players will receive tuition, room, and board……along with a salary and bonuses, just like the NFL. The other sports, including BB, will remain as they are as far as affiliation is concerned. So March Madness will remain as is. Why change it? It’s very successful financially. The NCAA wants and needs the revenue it makes from it. But football has outgrown the NCAA and frankly doesn’t need or want it any longer. Football, and the money it generates is what is driving all of this. The question is….who is going to control that money? Answer….who’s more well known and powerful, Sabin or the president of the NCAA? (I can’t even recall his name)

80 - - Fair enough and well stated, but we'll continue to disagree with one another on this aspect of all of this (i.e. your first paragraph, not the idea of the powerful football schools breaking into their own division within a neutered NCAA).

The EVENT everyone presently tunes into is inclusive. It starts out on a truly national basis with a large VARIETY of schools. There is HOPE and EXCITEMENT. There is EXPOSURE for a number of schools where that otherwise does not occur for such schools throughout the course of the year. Look at Selection Sunday. Look at the excitement that comes when a school's name is announced. A lot of that comes from schools who do not play football, or play it at the P5 level. Inclusivity. David v Goliath. These things are the true essence of the EVENT. Sure, it's mostly about national brands - Xavier among them at this point - by the end of the first weekend, but only mostly. Just look at last year's F4.

People tune in after the elimination of their team at this point because they were at least invited to the inclusive party. The viewership numbers would drop were this thing to become a "big football" club deal. They just would. Only the network executives know or could surmise what a big school only event would pull in viewership and thus ratings and potential media payouts. I just confidently believe that it would be a big enough (potential) hit not to make a break worth it, especially given the ill will that it would create. And, again, in the event they did break off, but a second tournament is put together for the remaining schools, then the p*ssed off little school fan would not be watching the big football basketball tournament, because they would be watching the little guy basketball tournament, notwithstanding the fact that the AD of their school would be crying over diminished revenue from it. Casual fan viewership preferences? Who knows.

We agree that March Madness will most likely remain as it is, and if a new big boy football division is formed to appease that group, then so be it. We all know that would not be a panacea for a number of those schools, since they are already bleeding cash in their athletic departments with that likely continuing for them from here.

I believe we're back to what we've both been stating about all this: they're solving for football, not basketball. They'll continue to do that.

[Uncle Joe]

Dash - appreciate your updates and insights on the BE very much.

Just saw this from Aaron Torres, Fox Sports Radio, and pretty sure he's a Uconn grad. I thought this was an interesting point. Responding to this tweet:

"Big 12 will distribute $440 million in revenue. That averages out to $44 million per school. I believe that's the all in number. (tournament rev, bowls, cfp) When the new contract kicks in, B12 ADs believe that all-in number will approach $50 million."

Torres said this:

"For anyone who doesn't understand why UConn should/will leave the Big East for the Big 12 this is it.

The move isn't to "elevate football." It's so you can pay Dan Hurley his value, Geno Auriemma's replacement, run a Top 25 baseball program, Top 15 hockey program, on and on"

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Torres/sta...68761570545669

I'll state this again - whether or not UConn leaves, but especially if they do, I think it behooves the BE to go after Gonzaga.

[waggy]

Could be that one day the BE emerges as the “4th conference”. A hybrid.

[xukeith]

If I wanted to read a book, I would not be here online.

[JTG]

Dash - appreciate your updates and insights on the BE very much.

Just saw this from Aaron Torres, Fox Sports Radio, and pretty sure he's a Uconn grad. I thought this was an interesting point. Responding to this tweet:

"Big 12 will distribute $440 million in revenue. That averages out to $44 million per school. I believe that's the all in number. (tournament rev, bowls, cfp) When the new contract kicks in, B12 ADs believe that all-in number will approach $50 million."

Torres said this:

"For anyone who doesn't understand why UConn should/will leave the Big East for the Big 12 this is it.

The move isn't to "elevate football." It's so you can pay Dan Hurley his value, Geno Auriemma's replacement, run a Top 25 baseball program, Top 15 hockey program, on and on"

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Torres/sta...68761570545669

I'll state this again - whether or not UConn leaves, but especially if they do, I think it behooves the BE to go after Gonzaga.

I didn't major in math but, how is $440 million divided by 14 schools $44 million each? more like $31mil And if they add 2 more schools it drops to $28mil. Unless it's basketball only I don't see Gonzaga as viable in the Big East. ND after an imploded ACC would be a better option.

[GoMuskies]

Dash - appreciate your updates and insights on the BE very much.

Just saw this from Aaron Torres, Fox Sports Radio, and pretty sure he's a Uconn grad. I thought this was an interesting point. Responding to this tweet:

"Big 12 will distribute $440 million in revenue. That averages out to $44 million per school. I believe that's the all in number. (tournament rev, bowls, cfp) When the new contract kicks in, B12 ADs believe that all-in number will approach $50 million."

Torres said this:

"For anyone who doesn't understand why UConn should/will leave the Big East for the Big 12 this is it.

The move isn't to "elevate football." It's so you can pay Dan Hurley his value, Geno Auriemma's replacement, run a Top 25 baseball program, Top 15 hockey program, on and on"

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Torres/sta...68761570545669

I'll state this again - whether or not UConn leaves, but especially if they do, I think it behooves the BE to go after Gonzaga.

I think this is hilarious reasoning. UConn outside the Big East was an abject disaster. Back in the Big East and winning a national title almost right away. Watching them leave the Big East and fall right back on their faces is going to be so funny to watch.

[bjf123]

I think this is hilarious reasoning. UConn outside the Big East was an abject disaster. Back in the Big East and winning a national title almost right away. Watching them leave the Big East and fall right back on their faces is going to be so funny to watch.

But they’ll be falling back on their faces with a big fat wallet. Ultimately, all they care about is the money.


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