Closing Time?

MHettel · 02-22-2023, 12:47 PM

Quick Analysis of XU in "close games" this year

XU is 20-8 overall, not bad.

In 18 games where the outcome is within 10 points with 5 minutes left XU is 11-7. So, 64% of our games are within 10 points with 5 minutes left.

Therefore, we are 9-1 when the game is beyond 10 points with 5 minutes left. Those are called "buy games" or "Georgetown games"

But against decent-to-good teams we are 11-7 and have outscored our opponents by 13 overall in the last 5 minutes.

Of those 18 games, we had the lead in 10 of them, tied in 4 and were behind in 4.

Of the 10 games we were winning, we held on to win 8 (lost to Gonzaga and Villanova).

of the 4 ties, we are 2-2 (Wins against WVU & SHU, Losses against DePaul & Marquette).

of the 4 games we were losing, we are 1-3. (w: Prov, L: IU, Duke, Butler).

If you break the game down into 8 five-minute blocks, you would expect that we would score (and give up) 12.5% of our points in any five-minute segment.

But in the LAST 5 minutes, we are scoring 15.7% of our points. Kind of non-intuitive to me, since the defenses are more likely a little tighter and one of the teams is more likely to try to control the tempo. With that said, we also GIVE UP 15.2% of the opponents points during that last 5 minutes as well. (small factor for the 1 OT game we've played....)

Our 13 point scoring margin during these last 5 minutes is very tight. We score 51.5% of the points and the opponents score 48.5%.

I think the reality here is that we are a slightly better than .500 team when playing decent opponents. We can generally hold leads, but not always, and have struggled to win games when we are trailing with 5 minutes left.

We have this high powered offense that is lauded and achieves all the "metrics", but in reality, when it matters we're barely better than .500 in crunch time.

I think the defense is NOTABLY better with Zach out. hate to say it, but its true. But similarly, we dont seem to be able to put the screws down on the opponents when it matters most either.

this really tempers my NCAA expectations. Any reasonable person would say it is just as likely that we win ZERO games as it is that we can somehow win 2.

We may be the OLDEST team in the country. Boum has played 150 games, Kunkel 134, Nunge 124, Hunter 118, Freemantle 105, Jones 77. Thats 708 games between our top 6 players, an average of 118 each. A "normal" season is about 34 games. That means these guys average 3.5 years of experience EACH. So in effect, we have 6 seniors out there.

And we have been "meh" in our ability to close out.

can we PLEASE get someone to step up before it's too late?

**Xville** · 02-22-2023, 12:59 PM

Thank you for this analysis… there is of course the caveat that free has been out for a number of these games and maybe they wouldn’t have even been close and instead would have been easy wins, but nonetheless I think this points to what I said last night:

I think we got caught up in thinking this team is better than it is because 1.) we had a pretty gaudy record for a while due to an easy opening conference slate and 2.) we have seen a lot of bad basketball the last four years and anything looked miles better than what aluminum provided.

I think this is a good, not great team. Can x get on a bit of a run to finish this out and be a second weekend team? Sure, but I’m not going to be surprised anymore if a first round exit happens. The roster is flawed, it just is.

JTG · 02-22-2023, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by Xville

Thank you for this analysis… there is of course the caveat that free has been out for a number of these games and maybe they wouldn’t have even been close and instead would have been easy wins, but nonetheless I think this points to what I said last night:

I think we got caught up in thinking this team is better than it is because 1.) we had a pretty gaudy record for a while due to an easy opening conference slate and 2.) we have seen a lot of bad basketball the last four years and anything looked miles better than what aluminum provided.

I think this is a good, not great team. Can x get on a bit of a run to finish this out and be a second weekend team? Sure, but I’m not going to be surprised anymore if a first round exit happens. The roster is flawed, it just is.

I agree. I also think we're at 23 wins and in 1st place if Free doesn't get hurt.

whopper · 02-22-2023, 02:14 PM

boum was outstanding at protecting a lead with ball handliing and foul shooting, but to make the winning play when the whole team is focused on you is a different situatiion. He is fit and skilled but not strong enough (see Justni Moore) to giive the ball to and get out of the way. Too late to change now but a swing to Kunkel, Jones, Nunge would have had a better result (maybe). Love the team and if they beat Butler at home they will be a 6. Maybe Seton Hall and a 5..hard to believe they can beat providence again

xukeith · 02-22-2023, 02:21 PM

Most teams are "meh". Maybe 7-9 are consistently winning close top 50 games.
It is something to hope for.

**bleedXblue** · 02-22-2023, 02:38 PM

Originally Posted by whopper

boum was outstanding at protecting a lead with ball handliing and foul shooting, but to make the winning play when the whole team is focused on you is a different situatiion. He is fit and skilled but not strong enough (see Justni Moore) to giive the ball to and get out of the way. Too late to change now but a swing to Kunkel, Jones, Nunge would have had a better result (maybe). Love the team and if they beat Butler at home they will be a 6. Maybe Seton Hall and a 5..hard to believe they can beat providence again

exactly the ball should have been in Colby's hands to get to the rim and create a shot for someone else