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Thread: 3 games....

  1. #1

    3 games....

    Well, we are officially 5-3, but in my opinion only 3 of those games really mattered....and we went 0-3. I understand the giddiness of having Miller back, and the promise of a bright future has returned. But THIS season is underway, and we have work to do. Those arent bad losses, but they are missed opportunities for great wins.

    What can we learn from those 3 games which we lost by a total of 13 points? Well, I logged the play-by-play for each game into a spreadsheet so I could isolate exactly how the team performed in a few key areas while each player was on the court.

    The table below shows the "plus/minus" of a few key stats and may reveal some strengths and weaknesses of the squad. The last 2 rows of the table shows the per minute scoring and rebounding margin while these guys were on the court. These rows are the most interesting to me.

    Keep in mind that players aren't out there by themselves, so any "performance " by an individual is highly influenced by the performance of the other 4 players on the court as well as who is out there for the opponent.

    Feast your eyes.

    Nunge Free Jones Tandy Boum Kunkel Miles Claude Craft Hunter
    Minutes 98 79 112 53 100 46 21 61 8 22
    Scoring Margin -16 -25 -12 -13 -4 4 -7 0 0 8
    reb margin -10 -4 -7 -15 -6 4 -2 -14 -4 -7
    XU 3PT Made 20 11 21 12 20 8 2 11 1 4
    Opp 3Pt Made 20 15 21 10 21 6 2 11 1 3
    XU 3PT % 47.6 37.9 47.7 52.2 48.8 40.0 25.0 47.8 20.0 40.0
    Opp 3Pt % 47.6 46.9 48.8 47.6 47.7 40.0 40.0 47.8 33.3 42.9
    FastBrk Pt Margin -8 -15 -12 -6 -9 -6 -4 4 5 1
    Paint Pts Margin 2 -12 -16 -14 -2 -4 -14 6 8 6
    TO Margin -2 -6 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 6 3 5
    Scor Marg per Min -.16 -.32 -.11 -.25 -.04 0.09 -.34 0 0 0.36
    reb marg per min -.10 -.05 -.06 -.28 -.06 0.09 -.10 -.23 -.48 -.31

  2. #2
    Here are MY observations:

    - Freemantle does not grade out well here. We were outscored by 25 in his 79 minutes of PT. That comes out to being outscored by .32 points per minute while he played. not good. Also, we made much fewer 3's when he played and shot at a lower clip (still good at 38%, though). We gave up 15 more fastbreak points and 12 more points in the paint when he played. He also had the worst TO margin on the team. On the upside, the rebounding margin wasnt bad at all, but I'm a little confused at how that could be. We got severely outscored when he played and the opponents punished us on the break and in the paint, so THEY werent missing many shots for us to rebound. But I assume we WERE missing shots when he was out there and we just have been grabbing ORebs to keep it close. I can actually take a look at that and will follow up with what I see. Overall though, Free was hurting us.

    - Nunge's numbers seems to suggest that "as he goes, so goes the team". The scoring and rebounding margin numbers are not great, but then somehow we are basically neutral on 3's and pretty dang close on paint points and turnovers. The fastbreak margin is -8 which isnt great, but also only the 4th worst on the team. His number align closely with the overall performance of the team; we lost 3 games and were outscored by 13 and outrebounded by 11. His -16 & -10 numbers line up with that.

    - We all love Colby, but his numbers were surprisingly poor across the board. Negative margin in scoring, rebs, fast break, and paint points. Neutral in everything else. it SEEMS like he's impacting the game but that doesnt come through in this analysis.

    -Unsurprisingly, Boum had a barely negative scoring margin, but surprisingly his rebounding margin was decent as well. We were only outscored in the paint by 2 when Boum was out there. Not sure why that turned out that way becasue he played ALOT of minutes and was out there with guys that had really poor paint margins.

    -Tandy was bad. I like the kid and still feel like he may light it up, but we got clobbered while he was out there.

    -Kunkel probably has teh best "numbers" but he missed the 3rd game. Who knows what the outcome would have been against the Zags. But what I DO know is that Kunk is an important part of this team and needs big minutes.

    - I know people think Miles has been great defensively, but he got the worst per minute scoring margin on the team. That could be due in part that we may be struggling to score when he's out there.....or we just aren't getting stops. I'm leaning to the latter. We were outscored by 14 points in the paint in his 21 minutes. Opponents do not seem to be too worried about Miles in the interior.

    -Claude's numbers look really good in his part time role....except for the really bad rebounding numbers. I dont know what to attribute that to. He not expected to grab boards, so it's not that HE's not rebounding. Maybe he's out there with the wrong mix of players who collectively rebound poorly, or maybe the other team just doesnt miss when he's out there. But he had positive paint points and fastbreak margins which means WE were getting buckets, so where did all those opposition boards come from? Were they ORebs on their own misses? I do like what I see in his numbers.

    - Hunter looks like his numbers were worthy of increased PT. Positive in almost every category except rebounding (is that a theme?). Would these numbers hold up in extended minutes? Will Miller tune into these stats and give him some more run?

    - Craft just didnt play enough to generate a big enough sample size.

    Overall, my analysis is AT LEAST 50% opinion because these numbers can be interpreted and explained in any number of ways.

    I'm interested in hearing other interpretations.

  3. #3
    Hall of Famer Masterofreality's Avatar
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    That sort of goes along with the comeback against Gonzaga when Hunter was out there and Free was not. Much MUCH better on defense. It also goes along with the fact that when Kunk in- good. When Kunk out- bad.

    Hunter deserves more PT. He’s doing exactly the role asked, and I think Sean sees that. For this team to be more than above average we need Claude to keep getting better.
    No excuse for Sean, but this is NOT his guys. He’s doing what he can with the clay he has. There is still 3 years of mindsets to overcome. Hopefully that will be in the rear view in January.
    "I Got CHAMPIONS in that Lockerroom!" -Stanley Burrell

  4. #4
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    I love this kind of info - I will take a deep dive later and provide comment.

  5. #5
    Please run this again before BE play starts and include WV game and UC game. We can analyze more data.. I miss your rpi reports back in the rpi days.

    Who would have thought Zach has a strong rebounding play?

    Is the reason Boum's numbers look good due to the fact he shoots and makes free-throws?
    Last edited by xukeith; 12-02-2022 at 06:36 PM.

  6. #6
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    all points count the same but we had terrible starts v Gonzaga and Duke (my recollection is in both games down 16-4 or something like that) so starters would all have negative +/-. I am surprised Sean is not talking about that (Indiana was a +/- 5 game all the way ). Zach gets a lot of defensive rebounds with quickness to the ball (but has coughed up 3 of the rebounds to the other team getting a basket that i remember). Hunter v Gonzaga was in for the Nunge 10 point explosion which explains Hunter (who is playing well). Nice job and telling analyss

  7. #7
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    I initially thought this was for the whole season and was thinking "how can so many numbers be negative", but then realized this is from our 3 losses. Thoughts:

    1) Opponents 3point FG% - ugh. Continues to be the achilles heel of the defense. Do we need a new approach to defending the 3?
    2) Our own 3point FG% - can we finally shoot a little bit? Nice to see after 4 years of bricks
    3) Fast Break Point Margin is interesting - I never would have expected so many negatives there, especially for Boum and Jones
    4) The stats are further proof Nung and Free struggle to play defense, esp Free
    Last edited by drudy23; 12-03-2022 at 08:54 AM.

  8. #8
    All-Conference XU 87's Avatar
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    Great stuff.

  9. #9
    Supporting Member MADXSTER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xukeith View Post
    Please run this again before BE play starts and include WV game and UC game. We can analyze more data.. I miss your rpi reports back in the rpi days.
    I would be interested in including Florida in these numbers or maybe Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams.

    Also, I think that Claude may be the best perimeter defender on the team.

    Also also, It's kinda not fair to play numbers against 3 of the top 12 teams in the country but it also does a good job of showing where our weaknesses are against good competition.
    Last edited by MADXSTER; 12-03-2022 at 08:55 AM.
    Balls of Steele!!

  10. #10
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    Thanks for doing this! Great read.

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