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  1. #31
    The US dollar is on the verge of being no longer recognized as the standard global currency. Countries that bought our T Bonds with confidence in the past, are not that comfortable now. Biden has us in a recession and we are 30+ TRILLION in debt.
    Last edited by Xuperman; 09-19-2022 at 10:37 PM.
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  2. #32
    Supporting Member boozehound's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Caf View Post
    Immigration as a top issue is a hard sale for me. Obviously an issue, it has been for decades, but I struggle to see how it has any impact on my life. I of course don’t live in a border state which helps.
    Not to mention that segments of the agricultural economy are actually reliant on migrant workers to harvest crops at wages below what American worker will accept. There is obviously a 'moral hazard' argument here as well, but I'm speaking purely from an economic perspective. I'm not saying we shouldn't enforce immigration laws, just that it's hard for me to consider it a top priority.

    My biggest concern at the moment is probably the ensuring that we continue to have free and fair elections, and don't slide into a system in which people refuse to accept and seek to overturn the results of elections they don't agree with. Our system of government is a big part of why America has been so successful. It's not perfect, but I still think it's the best around and we should protect it at all costs. Country ahead of party. Always.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caf View Post
    What foreign currency and government bonds should I buy then? Dollar is at a 20 year high, should be a great opportunity to sell it if that's true. What safe haven are these countries flocking to?
    Thank you. In the simplest terms the fed had to raise rates to quell runaway inflation that was primarily the result of shortages driven by production disruptions overseas (mostly China and COVID shutdown related), and shortages in Europe driven by Russia's War on Ukraine. That is driving a recession.

    I'd like to see us less dependent of foreign production as an economic priority. What we are seeing right now are the supply chain consequences of too many key good being produced abroad. It took decades to get here, and will probably take decades to get back, but I think we need to start now, and remain committed over multiple administrations (which will be the real challenge).
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  3. #33
    Junior UCGRAD4X's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by boozehound View Post
    Not to mention that segments of the agricultural economy are actually reliant on migrant workers to harvest crops at wages below what American worker will accept. There is obviously a 'moral hazard' argument here as well, but I'm speaking purely from an economic perspective. I'm not saying we shouldn't enforce immigration laws, just that it's hard for me to consider it a top priority.

    My biggest concern at the moment is probably the ensuring that we continue to have free and fair elections, and don't slide into a system in which people refuse to accept and seek to overturn the results of elections they don't agree with. Our system of government is a big part of why America has been so successful. It's not perfect, but I still think it's the best around and we should protect it at all costs. Country ahead of party. Always.
    If there are truly so many "migrants" coming across the border every day, I think there will be enough for the agriculture industry for quite some time.

    also

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  4. #34
    Sophomore Caf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xuperman View Post
    The US dollar is on the verge of being no longer recognized as the standard global currency. Countries that bought our T Bonds with confidence in the past, are not that comfortable now. Biden has us in a recession and we are 30+ TRILLION in debt.
    You won't be the first person on this board to wrongly ignore every other reality because you can't get passed politics. The Fed and its handling of inflation and rates is undeniably the trigger for this recession. If you want to talk deficit spending which lead to inflation as the cause (this is your out bud), then you have to talk about every President since Clinton, even your dearly beloved. Then the conversation will go to the impossible task of landing a recovery from an economic recession/shock ('08, '20) without overheating the economy but also not losing capacity.

    59% of global reserves are in USD. The next closest, the Euro, is 20% oh by the way those Euro reserves are down 11% versus the dollar since the start of the year. I'm not sure how familiar you are with FX trading but that means people are flocking to the dollar and leaving the Euro, the closest (195% gain away) currency to unseating the dollar. And yes we are in a butt ton in debt, meaning we are issuing an enormous amount of cash, and yet the value of that cash continues to rise. Not sure if you're into this kind of thing, but makes you think.

    Why else might a foreign investor not be buying US Treasuries to the same degree. Spoiler alert, it's not repayment risk which does not exist in treasuries.

  5. #35
    Senior Strange Brew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Caf View Post
    You won't be the first person on this board to wrongly ignore every other reality because you can't get passed politics. The Fed and its handling of inflation and rates is undeniably the trigger for this recession. If you want to talk deficit spending which lead to inflation as the cause (this is your out bud), then you have to talk about every President since Clinton, even your dearly beloved. Then the conversation will go to the impossible task of landing a recovery from an economic recession/shock ('08, '20) without overheating the economy but also not losing capacity.

    59% of global reserves are in USD. The next closest, the Euro, is 20% oh by the way those Euro reserves are down 11% versus the dollar since the start of the year. I'm not sure how familiar you are with FX trading but that means people are flocking to the dollar and leaving the Euro, the closest (195% gain away) currency to unseating the dollar. And yes we are in a butt ton in debt, meaning we are issuing an enormous amount of cash, and yet the value of that cash continues to rise. Not sure if you're into this kind of thing, but makes you think.

    Why else might a foreign investor not be buying US Treasuries to the same degree. Spoiler alert, it's not repayment risk which does not exist in treasuries.
    Kind of. The immense amount of spending caused the Fed to react. Source of recession is wreckless spending (and the reduction of domestic energy production).

    Great, so the $ is the best looking pig of the slop.
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  6. #36
    Supporting Member boozehound's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange Brew View Post
    Kind of. The immense amount of spending caused the Fed to react. Source of recession is wreckless spending (and the reduction of domestic energy production).

    Great, so the $ is the best looking pig of the slop.
    I'm pretty against profligate government spending, but do you really think that government spending (vs supply chain disruptions and shortages of goods) was what forced the fed to react?

    In my line of work I deal with current and forward looking projections for a lot of commodity costs, and everything is (or at least was) up astronomically: steel, aluminum, iemi-conductors, nearly all food ingredients, etc. It's hard for me to tie that to government spending rather than a highly (perhaps dangerously) interconnected global supply chain that was severely disrupted. Goods became scarce and the people that had money were willing to pay more to get what they want.

    I think that what we are seeing are some of the consequences of an over-reliance on China to produce critical goods, not just for the United States but globally as well. It's the flip side to $200 flat screen TVs. When China shuts down a major port because of 200 COVID cases, the bullwhip effect is massive.
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  7. #37
    You're right CAF,
    My in depth knowledge of global finance is pretty weak. However, I can read and there is no shortage of articles like these.

    https://www.newindianexpress.com/opi...ck-2439846.amp

    https://www.ft.com/content/408d4065-...5-c6a8743b0d01

    If you don't think a financial China/Russia alliance spells bad news for the dollar, you're not paying attention. They are actively seeking ways to keep us from "weaponizing" the USD. Just wait and see what happens when China invades Taiwan.

    BTW, I never paid much attention to politics until Obama and his "Fundamentally Transform America" agenda.....it really raised an eyebrow. Now that the Democratic Party is feverishly implementing it, with the MSM in full support, I stay pretty pissed off......with good reason.
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  8. #38
    Supporting Member boozehound's Avatar
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    You realize that the two articles linked are (1) a Financial Times article about one person's opinion, and (2) an article from the 'New Indian Express' that consists of 3 paragraphs of broken English with no real clear message.

    People have been fear mongering the 'demise of the dollar' for almost 50 years (a point acknowledged in the FT article). I don't see it happening any time soon. If anything, I think that China and Russia are weaker now than they have been for a while. COVID lockdowns in China and Russia's invasion of Ukraine of highlighted the dangers of being too reliant on potentially volatile regimes.
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  9. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by boozehound View Post
    Not to mention that segments of the agricultural economy are actually reliant on migrant workers to harvest crops at wages below what American worker will accept. There is obviously a 'moral hazard' argument here as well, but I'm speaking purely from an economic perspective. I'm not saying we shouldn't enforce immigration laws, just that it's hard for me to consider it a top priority.
    I grew up around commercial farming, particularly Tobacco. Typically Mexican workers would come for the season and return home after harvest.

    This current, all time high, migration of illegals are not them. These people have no intention of leaving, in fact this administration is encouraging them to stay.

    "Economic perspective"? My only point, and the source of my concern, is the American taxpayers can not afford 8,000 a day. The cost of supplying food, housing, education, medical for Millions is too heavy a burden. Can someone explain where this massive amount of funds are going to come from? This is nothing short of a economic disaster (not to mention the Fentanyl).....I can't believe it's even debatable.
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  10. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by boozehound View Post
    You realize that the two articles linked are (1) a Financial Times article about one person's opinion, and (2) an article from the 'New Indian Express' that consists of 3 paragraphs of broken English with no real clear message.

    People have been fear mongering the 'demise of the dollar' for almost 50 years (a point acknowledged in the FT article). I don't see it happening any time soon. If anything, I think that China and Russia are weaker now than they have been for a while. COVID lockdowns in China and Russia's invasion of Ukraine of highlighted the dangers of being too reliant on potentially volatile regimes.
    I just posted examples.....there are scores more like them. The reality is when countries like China, Saudi Arabia, Iran start trading with currency other than the USD, it can not be viewed as a positive.
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