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  1. #1

    Career Wrap: Nate Johnson

    See below for an analysis of Nate Johnsons tenure as an XU player.

    If you aren't familiar with the approach I take for these analyses, please take a look at the post titled "Career Wrap: Paul Scruggs"


    Nate Johnson only gave us 2 years, and his game was very straight forward. He had limited dimensions offensively, servicing primarily as a catch and shoot guy. Defensively, he was a solid perimeter defender, with most of his contributions not being captured in the Box Score.

    Scoring Analysis

    Presumably, you have watched a few XU games over the last couple years and it shouldn't come as a big surprise to learn that Nate's main offensive contribution came as a catch and shoot specialist. He was hunting 3's most of the time, but also nailed the occasional 2. A few stats that support this observation.

    - Nate's overall FG attempts per minute ranked him 35 out of 75 former players. At first glance I'm inclined to wish that Nate had taken more shots, but that requires a deeper look.

    - From 2 Pt distance, Nate shot 42.3%, which ranked him #76 out of 85....ouch. But on the other hand, he just didn't take that many 2s. In terms of 2 point attempts per minute, he was ranked #67 of 75.

    - In terms of 3Pt attempts per minute, he ranked #5 out of 48 "shooters" in my data. (as an aside, Tandy is ranked #2, and Kunkle is #3 meaning that we had 3 guys last year that just put up 3's.) He ranked #4 of 58 "shooters" in terms of the percentage of his total points coming from 3.

    - His 3pt % was very good, finishing at 40.1%, which is good for 7th out of 54.

    - One big gripe I've had over the last few years shows up loud and clear in Johnson's stats. He didnt get to the FT line enough. He ranked 67 out of 75 players in terms of FT Attempts per minute. His FT% was fine at 78.2% which was good for a ranking of 12 out of 85. But overall, a guy that shoots 40% from 2 better be getting to the line pretty often, and in the absence of this, if he's not making 3's he winds up being an offensive detriment.


    Conclusion: As i was doing the research I started to wonder what former player is his closest COMP. At first with his rate of 3PT attempts, I started thinking maybe the PURE shooters like Welage or Redford. But then I started thinking maybe BJ Raymond, and I was SHOCKED to see how similar they were.

    Side by Side Ranking Comparison- Raymond, Listed First, then Johnson

    Points per Minute Rank (out of 75)- #29, #44
    FG Attempts per Minute (out of 75)- #23, #35
    FG % (out of 85)- #49, #68
    % of points from 3 (out of 54)- #7, #4
    3Pt Shooting % (out of 54)- #6, #7
    3Pt Attempts per Minute (out of 48)- #6, #5
    2Pt Attempts per minute (out of 75)- #64, #67
    2Pt Shooting % Rank (out of 85)- #48, #76 (difference maker in favor of BJ)
    FT attempts per minute (out of 75)- #62, #67
    FT shooting % (out of 85)- #36, #12
    # of FTA taken per 2Pt Attempt (out of 85)- #42, #30
    FT as a % of points scored (out of 85)- #79, #77

    And it doesn't stop with just the scoring similarities

    OReb per Minute (out of 62)- #40, #48
    DReb per Minute (out of 62- #38, #41
    TReb per minute (out of 75)- #46, #54
    Assists per minute (out of 75)- #49, #48
    Assist to TO Ratio (out of 65)- #34, #30
    Steals per minute (out of 75)- #58, #35 (edge to Nate)
    Blocks per minute (out of 75)- #35, #45
    TOs per minute (out of 75)- #9, #8
    Fouls per minute (out of 65)- #28, #5

    In essence the only notable distinction between Raymond and Nate was that BJ simply made more of his 2 point attempts. For purely comparative purposes, I think it's pretty clear that these 2 guys were as similar as any other pair of players that I can recall coming through the program in the last 25 years.

    Anyway, I'm not going to go into Nate's rebounding or assists or defensive stats. I already provided his relative rankings above, and quite frankly there just isn't much to say as he was the definition of "average" in these categories.

    As I said, his on-ball defense was solid, but not reflected in the stats.

    Solid player. And while he compares favorably to BJ Raymond statistically, the inability of the team to make an NCAA noise will always separate the two....

  2. #2
    I still believe. muskiefan82's Avatar
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    BJ was far more active as a player. Nate tended to sit outside the 3 line and wait for the ball on way too many possessions.
    We've come a long way since my bench seat at the Fieldhouse!

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by muskiefan82 View Post
    BJ was far more active as a player. Nate tended to sit outside the 3 line and wait for the ball on way too many possessions.
    Yeah, thats what my eyes told me as well. But the numbers certainly show that they were almost indistinguishable.

    Although, BJ played 4 years and we all probably remember his last 2 more so than his first 2. His numbers reflect his 4 year totals.

  4. #4
    All-Conference XU 87's Avatar
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    "In terms of 3Pt attempts per minute, he ranked #5 out of 48 "shooters" in my data. (as an aside, Tandy is ranked #2, and Kunkle is #3 meaning that we had 3 guys last year that just put up 3's.) He ranked #4 of 58 "shooters" in terms of the percentage of his total points coming from 3."

    That stat may explain what my eyes saw this year (and previous years)- "We sure take a lot of tough and contested threes".

    BJ and Nate had a lot of similar stats, except for this very important one you noted- Points per Minute Rank (out of 75)- #29, #44.

    Points per minute appears to be a result of this stat (again which you pointed out)- 2Pt Shooting % Rank (out of 85)- #48, #76

    As always, good stuff.
    Last edited by XU 87; 05-02-2022 at 02:00 PM.

  5. #5
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    I’m not sure the impact of his two injuries played on the future of Xavier basketball. Xavier was arguably one game away from making the tournament each of the last two years. I think they would’ve made it last season if he didn’t get hurt- and Steele would still be coach. I never root for injuries but I’m definitely happy Sean is back.

  6. #6
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    I would not have thought to make the BJ comparison. These are fun, thank you.,
    Bjork Vanishes After Fan Tricks Her Into Saying Name Backwards ~ TheHardTimes.netb

  7. #7
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    "Do it BJ"

    - Byron Larkin

  8. #8
    Freshman webxu's Avatar
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    NCAA Tourneys: BJ 4 Nate 0...Edge BJ :)

  9. #9
    All-Conference XU 87's Avatar
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    BJ Raymond's stats:

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...raymond-1.html

    He was pretty much a three point specialist until his senior year.

    Nate's stats:

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...johnson-6.html

    He was primarily a three point specialist his two years here.

  10. #10
    Sophomore
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    Quote Originally Posted by muskiefan82 View Post
    BJ was far more active as a player. Nate tended to sit outside the 3 line and wait for the ball on way too many possessions.
    I agree with that and that also has a lot to do with him not getting as many foul shots. With Coaches emphasizing "don't foul a 3 point shooter it is not surprising. He was not a driver, so he didn't get as many foul shots.

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