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  1. #1

    Career Wrap: Dwon Odom

    If you are familiar with the "Career Wrap" posts I've done at the end of each year, keep reading.

    If you don't know the approach I take for these, please refer to the post called "Career Wrap: Paul Scruggs" with some additional background.

    Dwon Odom

    Well, I didn't expect that I'd be writing this post THIS year. It would happen eventually, of course, but the circumstances caught me off guard. Although Dwon does not appear to have landed at his next destination, I think it's pretty apparent that he is determined to leave. Any player could enter the portal quietly without making an announcement about it. But, Dwon had SOMETHING to say (although, I'm not really sure what it is....). His announcement on Social Media makes this decision all but set in stone.

    Lets look at Dwon, and how his performance stacked up to other XU players over the last 30+ years.

    1. Scoring / Shooting: Dwon was really a one-trick pony that was easy to anticipate and yet STILL very hard to stop. Dwon didn't shoot 3's; there really isn't much of a story here and I'll stop short of trying to figure out why he didn't shoot and how that may have impacted the rest of the game. What Dwon DID do was drive to the basket and attempt to finish around the rim.

    In terms of shooting frequency, Dwon really didn't take a lot of shots. In shot attempts per minute he ranked #61 out of 75. If you isolate just 2 point attempts he ranked #37 or 75. The large gap in these 2 metrics about shot frequency really only serves to support what we already know quantitatively and qualitatively. Dwon didnt shoot 3's. But from 2, his shot frequency was right at the midpoint for the entire population.

    In terms of MAKING his shot attempts, this is where Dwon shined. His overall shooting % of 54.6% ranked him #16 out of 85. Pretty dang good for a guard. Take that with a grain of salt though since most guards (and many wings) also take a lot of lower percentage 3 point shots. But We can Adjust for that! If we isolate just 2Pt attempts, we see his FG rate climb to 57.2% which improves his ranking to #13 of 85. VERY good for a guard.

    Take it a little further and we can isolate a population of 18 "ballhandlers" and compare Odom among this group. Here is the ranking of those 18 players in terms of 2PT FG%: Odom (#1), Scruggs, Crawford, Chalmers, Sumner, Lumpkin, Brown, Semaj, Tu, McAfee, Hawkins, Lavender, Lyons, Dee Davis, Goodin, Burrell, Finn, Dante.

    Ok, thats impressive. But wait, there's more! Not only was Odom #1, but he was 5.7% higher than the next guy. and only 1 other guy was over 50%. The remaining 15 guys averaged 45.1% from the field from 2.

    Time for some math: Lets say Odom and some other "average" player both take 10 shots a game. Odom will take all 10 from 2, and make 5.7, so he'd score about 11.4 points on those 10 shots. If the other guy takes 3 threes and hit's 38%, and then takes 7 2's at a 48% clip, he would account for 10.1 points on those 10 shots. Odom has a pretty compelling advantage here.

    Lets run it again. Same outcome for Odom, 11.4 Points. Lets say player B shoots 45% from 3, and 50% from 2. Thats worth 11.05 Points. Still, advantage Odom.

    Last scenario. Same outcome for Odom, 11.4 points. This time player B take 4 of his 10 shots from 3 and hits 45%, and then 50% from the 6 shots from 2 and he accounts for 11.4 points. That is EQUAL to Odom's output. Lets be honest, a guy that shoots 45% from 3, and 50% from 2 is an All-Conference level player.

    Lets pivot to Free Throws. Odom ranks #60 of 75 in FTA per minute. And his FT% ranks him #33 of 85. So a little below average in getting to the line, but a little above average in terms of making it. But remember, this is just the rate that he goes to the line per minute played. It only tells us so much.

    Since Odom didn't take that many shots per minute (#61 of 75), it would stand to reason that he wouldn't take that many free throws per minute. So, lets look at the ratio of FT attempts PER 2 Pt FG Attempts. This gives us an idea of how often he's getting fouled when attacking the basket. He ranks #80 of 85 here. Big surprise to me. I kind of had the feeling that he was getting to the line more often, but apparently not. If he's going to continue to stay away from taking 3's, then the next best thing he could do to progress his game is to start looking for more contact near the rim. If you get a guy that makes 57% of his shots AND gets fouled alot....watch out.

    Overall, Odom's points per minute ranked him #61 of 75. Again, a little lower than what I would have thought. maybe I have some "recency bias" because he came on so strong as a scorer late this year. He must have been a lot more passive than I recall as a Freshman.

    2. Odom as a PG. Alot of times I have a pretty good idea what the analysis will uncover. But for Odom I never really had a real sense for his ability to effectively run the offense. What I found is pretty promising (for him). His Assists per minute rank him 10th of 75. When compared to the "18 ballhandlers" cohort, he's also #10 of 18. Wo pretty decent, especially for an underclassman.

    His turnover numbers are actually quite good. Out of 15 Ballhandlers (I dont have TO numbers for 3 of them), he ranks #3 of 15. Thats Very good.

    Predictably, his Assist to TO ratio also ranked him #3 of 15 for ballhandlers.

    Overall, he was a decent assist guy that seemed to protect the ball. Probably has some upside here as well.

    3. Rebs, Blocks, Steals, Fouls. Kind of like Scruggs, not a big story here, so I'll be brief.

    Rebs- #44of 62 in Rebs per minute. #5 among 18 ballhandlers. Decent.

    Blocks- #28 of 75 in blocks per minute. #1 among 18 ballhandlers. Underrated and underappreciated skill in my opinion.

    Steals- #20 of 75 in steals per minute. #11 among 18 ballhandlers. Pretty average.

    Fouls- #27 of 65. #7 of 15 ballhandlers. Again, pretty average.

    Conclusion

    Odom was a very unique player with a tendency to never shoot threes and also be so dang good from 2. he doesnt get to the line though, which kind of doesnt jive with his tendency to drive as much as he did. And being a good rebounder and blocking shots just speaks to his off the charts athleticism. Overall, I think if he keeps doing what he's doing offensively while adding a little more skill in drawing contact, he could he a plus offensive player. Defensively, he's already a dog, and could achieve elite perimeter defender status. Good luck Dwon.

  2. #2
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    Eye-opening, fascinating in-depth analysis.

  3. #3
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    There's nothing I can disagree with in the analysis. Like most of us, I loved Dwon. What can't be quantified is offensive efficiency and team field goal percentage while he's in games.

    When you shoot that poorly from 3, in an offense predicated on the 3 ball, you give almost a man advantage to the defense when he's in the game. I hate to rain on the Dwon parade, but it's a fatal flaw for anyone that wants or gets significant minutes at this level of D1 hoops. In saying that, he's likely a huge asset for teams that play up-tempo or have more motion in their offense. He's just not a good fit for what we will likely see next year.

    It's like the really, really hot girl that has an STD.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by drudy23 View Post
    It's like the really, really hot girl that has an STD.
    Where the hell where you when I needed you?

  5. #5
    Supporting Member GIMMFD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drudy23 View Post
    There's nothing I can disagree with in the analysis. Like most of us, I loved Dwon. What can't be quantified is offensive efficiency and team field goal percentage while he's in games.

    When you shoot that poorly from 3, in an offense predicated on the 3 ball, you give almost a man advantage to the defense when he's in the game. I hate to rain on the Dwon parade, but it's a fatal flaw for anyone that wants or gets significant minutes at this level of D1 hoops. In saying that, he's likely a huge asset for teams that play up-tempo or have more motion in their offense. He's just not a good fit for what we will likely see next year.

    It's like the really, really hot girl that has an STD.
    I also don't think it helped that his guy Hayes is going to Georgia State, still blows my mind that he wasn't confident to even take a few from out there because he was left so wide open.. I mean it never stopped Quentin Goodin after all... I liked Dwon's game a lot, I thought he was explosive, and was such a highly regarded recruit, sucks it didn't work out how we all envisioned, but he definitely has some upside to his game. He does truly need to work on his jumper around the clock though. If he has a pull up, or even becomes to the point where they can't sag off him so much, he has a lot of tools to be a very good D1 basketball player IMO.

  6. #6
    Junior UCGRAD4X's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GIMMFD View Post
    I also don't think it helped that his guy Hayes is going to Georgia State, still blows my mind that he wasn't confident to even take a few from out there because he was left so wide open.. I mean it never stopped Quentin Goodin after all... I liked Dwon's game a lot, I thought he was explosive, and was such a highly regarded recruit, sucks it didn't work out how we all envisioned, but he definitely has some upside to his game. He does truly need to work on his jumper around the clock though. If he has a pull up, or even becomes to the point where they can't sag off him so much, he has a lot of tools to be a very good D1 basketball player IMO.
    It is interesting and a bit puzzling when nobody else on the team was shy about heaving it up there. I doubt if it was the Tin Man keeping him down. If he had such a lack of confidence, he shouldn't be taking that shot.

    I think if he were to find his sweet spot, just work on increasing the distance incrementally, he could get there in three or four years :). It is fairly obvious why something like that hasn't happened already. Hopefully Hayes unleashed can put him on that slow train over the off season.
    I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I drink 2XS.

  7. #7
    Sophomore xuwin's Avatar
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    I think he was below average defensively but has the potential to be much better with coaching.

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