Season at a Glance

[XUGRAD80]

Ok..say that’s the case, that is also steeles fault and there should be consequences. It will have been 4 years, that’s a ton of time in college basketball. If he can’t recruit or develop players enough or manage the roster well enough after 4 years, then a change should be made. And don’t give me the bs covid excuse either..everyone had to deal with it.

Ok, THAT I will agree with. The coaching staff has not shown the ability to develop players on a consistent level. They have had A LOT of swings and misses on recruits and transfers. Based on that track record, I’m not near as bullish on this roster as some seem to be. We hear every off-season about how much better a player will be than they were the year before. Yet, I haven’t seen it. Nor do I expect to see it this year. I very much hope that I am pleasantly surprised, but I’m not counting on it.

Is that Steel’s fault? Absolutely, if not 100% it’s at least a 50-50 proposition between the players and the coaches. But I do place at least SOME of the blame on the players themselves. It not only takes the players being willing to work on their own to develop an all round good game, though. It takes good coaching, too. It is a partnership between the player and the coaches. The coaches can’t MAKE the players better, they can only point the way. It’s then on the players to go down the correct path and to put in the extra work needed. Every team practices 2 hours a day. If all a player does is come to practice and work hard they are only doing what every other player is doing. The players that want to really improve and want to be better than the other players have to put in the EXTRA work, often on their own. It’s up to the coaches to give them the correct instruction, the opportunity to put in the work to get better, and then to put them in a position where they can succeed.

[Strange Brew]

Realistically this team doesn’t have any proven consistent 3 point shooters, has defensive and rebounding deficiencies, and as I’ve pointed out before the transfers and some of the returners are coming off of injury. To my mind there are a ton of question marks in the roster. They could be really good, but there is no guarantee. I’m not convinced that this roster is all some of y’all are making it out to be.

Did Johnson come back?

[MHettel]

[QUOTE=Xer4ever;709459]

Same here. In theory this team should be an average-good 3 point shooting team. But..

Last three years under Steele from 3

2018-2019: 33.1%, 236th nationally
2019-2020: 31.2%, 282nd nationally
2020-2021: 32.5%, 229th nationally
Total: 32.3%, 288th nationally over last 3 years

Only 11 power conference teams have been worse over the last 3 years. In Big East play over the last 3 seasons Xavier is dead last in the league in 3P% as well. Have to shoot the ball at least at a respectable level. It's really hard in this day and age to win if you don't.

You nailed it. Period. We can talk about defense and rebounding, but these shooting stats must change dramatically for X to reach their goals this year. And I believe they will.

This is PART of the story, for sure....but not the whole story.

The 3Pt accuracy has been bad. I have 32 years of team data, and in the last 3 seasons the 3PT shooting percentage has ranked #28, #31, and #30. So, you would have to assume that because you are a poor shooting team, you might be inclined to take less threes.....yes?

NO! Again in a 32 year period, our 3PT attempts per game rankings were #3, #5, & #1. We took the most amount of 3's per game in 32 years last year while being the #30 ranked most accurate team.

But, maybe that's pace, right? If you play with a faster pace, you take more shots in general....right?

YES, that is right, but it's not what happened. If you think about scoring from 2, scoring from3, or scoring from the FT line, you can determine the ratio of each...

And of course, in the last 3 years, our ratio of points scored from 3 ranks #7, #13, and #4 in the last 32 years. sigh. "if at first you dont succeed, keep jacking up bad threes until you CONVINCE yourself that you have succeeded"

But, uhh, maybe we took alot of threes because we weren't good at 2's???? maybe?

MAYBE NOT! Our 2PT shooting percentage ranked #3, #20, and #2 out of 32 over the last 3 years.

Rule #1 in the Travis Steele handbook: "dont take advantage of your advantage"

Lets discuss the other way to score: FREE THROWS (they are fucking free for a reason). Maybe we should rename them to "Not as Free as you Might Think Throws"

FT attempts per Game rank for the last 3 years: #31, #30, #32. YEAH.

In terms of FT% we were: #27, #31, #21.

Break down the FT attempts a little more: 3 years under Steele, and we taken 17.6 FTs per game. In the 29 PRIOR YEARS, we average 24.2. That 6.6 less FT attempts per game. Lets just assume we shoot 71% from the line (our 32 year average) and that would translate to 4.7 points more PER GAME if we just took an AVERAGE amount of FTs.

I know this discussion started off about 3PT shooting %. But take this in.

ASSUME for a moment that last year, instead of shooting 32.5% (ranked #30), we shoot as well as we ever have (1993) and hit 40% of those shots. Well, we took 23.7 per game so instead of making 32.5% of them (7.7) we would have made 40% of them (9.5). Do the math that 1.8*3= 5.4 Points per Game. What if we just shot at our 32 year average (35.5%)...well thats good for only .7 more 3s. that's just 2 points per game.

So, we'd have to shoot out of our ass to make up that difference in points scored from 3, but we left almost that same amount of points at the FT line.

Here is the reality: We don't have a problem with players playing poorly. We have a problem with our offensive scheme that is designed around principles that don't result in offensive EFFICIENCY. Travis needs to have a "Moneyball Moment" and realize that his scheme sucks and he needs to play into our strengths. Use the 3 to keep the defense honest and focus on getting the ball inside where a) You score at a much higher rate, b) increase your chances of getting fouled and c) have a higher chance of grabbing an OREB off the miss.

The first few games are going to tell me everything I need know when it comes to Travis and his ability to continue to improve as a coach.

[bleedXblue]

[QUOTE=MHettel;709476]

This is PART of the story, for sure....but not the whole story.

The 3Pt accuracy has been bad. I have 32 years of team data, and in the last 3 seasons the 3PT shooting percentage has ranked #28, #31, and #30. So, you would have to assume that because you are a poor shooting team, you might be inclined to take less threes.....yes?

NO! Again in a 32 year period, our 3PT attempts per game rankings were #3, #5, & #1. We took the most amount of 3's per game in 32 years last year while being the #30 ranked most accurate team.

But, maybe that's pace, right? If you play with a faster pace, you take more shots in general....right?

YES, that is right, but it's not what happened. If you think about scoring from 2, scoring from3, or scoring from the FT line, you can determine the ratio of each...

And of course, in the last 3 years, our ratio of points scored from 3 ranks #7, #13, and #4 in the last 32 years. sigh. "if at first you dont succeed, keep jacking up bad threes until you CONVINCE yourself that you have succeeded"

But, uhh, maybe we took alot of threes because we weren't good at 2's???? maybe?

MAYBE NOT! Our 2PT shooting percentage ranked #3, #20, and #2 out of 32 over the last 3 years.

Rule #1 in the Travis Steele handbook: "dont take advantage of your advantage"

Lets discuss the other way to score: FREE THROWS (they are fucking free for a reason). Maybe we should rename them to "Not as Free as you Might Think Throws"

FT attempts per Game rank for the last 3 years: #31, #30, #32. YEAH.

In terms of FT% we were: #27, #31, #21.

Break down the FT attempts a little more: 3 years under Steele, and we taken 17.6 FTs per game. In the 29 PRIOR YEARS, we average 24.2. That 6.6 less FT attempts per game. Lets just assume we shoot 71% from the line (our 32 year average) and that would translate to 4.7 points more PER GAME if we just took an AVERAGE amount of FTs.

I know this discussion started off about 3PT shooting %. But take this in.

ASSUME for a moment that last year, instead of shooting 32.5% (ranked #30), we shoot as well as we ever have (1993) and hit 40% of those shots. Well, we took 23.7 per game so instead of making 32.5% of them (7.7) we would have made 40% of them (9.5). Do the math that 1.8*3= 5.4 Points per Game. What if we just shot at our 32 year average (35.5%)...well thats good for only .7 more 3s. that's just 2 points per game.

So, we'd have to shoot out of our ass to make up that difference in points scored from 3, but we left almost that same amount of points at the FT line.

Here is the reality: We don't have a problem with players playing poorly. We have a problem with our offensive scheme that is designed around principles that don't result in offensive EFFICIENCY. Travis needs to have a "Moneyball Moment" and realize that his scheme sucks and he needs to play into our strengths. Use the 3 to keep the defense honest and focus on getting the ball inside where a) You score at a much higher rate, b) increase your chances of getting fouled and c) have a higher chance of grabbing an OREB off the miss.

The first few games are going to tell me everything I need know when it comes to Travis and his ability to continue to improve as a coach.

WELL DONE !!

[xukeith]

Stainbrook and Hankins were above average transfers. X ,in the past, has had some good role players that usually play defense and rebound.

Nunge and Hunter are not expected to average double figures. They should get to the line, rebound , score when open ,and play strong defense

Anything more offensively is fantastic. Unlike past Steele teams, this team is much longer and taller at every position. They should greatly help defense.

On paper, longer, taller players should disrupt passing lanes and increase turnovers.
They should greatly help defense.
I imagine the bulk of the scoring will be shared by Scruggs, Freemantle, Johnson, Jones, and Hunter/Kunkel.

Last season Carter played defense and rebounded. He was not much of an offensive threat(we all know that). He is now replaced by a combo of Nunge/Hunter/Edwards/ Miles/Stanley. Will they all play? Probably not. Are they better than past big men? Under Steele, yes.
Those 5 can contribute and not be a detriment to some mild efficiency .

I am not putting a lot of money betting on transfers. We hit the transfer lottery with Johnson but he is the exception.

[bleedXblue]

Stainbrook and Hankins were above average transfers. X ,in the past, has had some good role players that usually play defense and rebound.

Nunge and Hunter are not expected to average double figure. They should get to the line, rebound ,and play strong defense

Anything more offensively is fantastic. Unlike past Steele teams, this team is much longer and taller.
That should greatly help defense.
Returners will take care of the scoring and assists.

Hunter is NOT known for his defense and doesn't shoot the 3 particularly well. Mystery to me why he was brought in. Hoping he has some kind of epiphany.

[Xville]

Hunter is NOT known for his defense and doesn't shoot the 3 particularly well. Mystery to me why he was brought in. Hoping he has some kind of epiphany.

34% isn't horrible, better than most of the team last year (probably more of an indictment of the team)...6'8 215 and long. Interested to see him now in his third year.

[bleedXblue]

34% isn't horrible, better than most of the team last year (probably more of an indictment of the team)...6'8 215 and long. Interested to see him now in his third year.

How does 51% from FT line grab you?

Now, if he was known as a defensive stud and rebounder, I could understand the need and fit for this team.

Again, hoping with some new scenery he's a different player than the first two years at IU.

[Xville]

How does 51% from FT line grab you?

Now, if he was known as a defensive stud and rebounder, I could understand the need and fit for this team.

Again, hoping with some new scenery he's a different player than the first two years at IU.

Oh don’t get me wrong I was certainly scratching my head on the pickup, and Steele doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt at this point. I’m hoping a top 50 recruit starts to realize some potential.

[paulxu]

Look at the bright side; we won't have long in-game threads devoted to wondering why Carter is in the lineup.