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  1. #21
    Supporting Member UCGRAD4X's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HenryMuto View Post
    I stumbled upon this thread just now and it made me laugh. I appreciate your nomination of me but I was actually debating never doing the bracket stuff again after last year got cancelled. Also it is nothing like it used to be. Since the 90s I would always do my own bracket projection. It started by just using pen and paper in the 90s then moved to excel spreadsheets in 2003 and beyond. I still have all my work saved from 2003 to 2019. Obviously in 2020 I had barely started before it ended.

    The thing about me is I can usually give you sound reasoning for some teams and where they might seed up at any certain point of the year based purely off just watching basketball (god knows once fantasy football is over (I had 114 teams last year) it is basically all I do from end of December until end of March Madness). I do not actually do what the bracket people do the 500 guys who now do bracket matrix and the "big wigs" from ESPN and CBS ect. They make an official bracket weekly or even some daily and just adjust it every day or few days based on results.

    This was never what I did. I just always waited until conference championship week when I started my vacation from week on that Wed - Friday and then I got my spreadsheet out and started doing my own seed line rankings and stuff until finishing it just before the bracket revealed every year.

    Back in the 90s there was no one else doing it I just did if for fun.

    Then in early 2000's we have Jerry Palm doing it and I compared myself against him (He was terrible back then probably still is now I beat him like 9 out of 10 years with 1 tie between us). Then Joe Lunardi came along he was better than Palm but not by much.

    Then a boom hit with 100's of people coming out of the woodwork in like 2010 or so. Now so many are doing it...it just isn't fun for me to do anymore.

    There is too much info out there now and if you look at anything you have your mind warped to what most think except for a few things you may really believe so at this point it's not even worth doing anymore.

    Funny story though I did get into it with the USA today bracket guy on last Tuesday he posted how the 4 #1 seeds are basically locks and it would take a lot for 1 of them to be passed by a 2 seed. He had Nova as a 1 seed and Ohio State as a 2 seed. I blasted him telling him how when Saturday's bracket would come out he would be wrong and Ohio State would be a #1 seed. He updates his stuff on bracket wag daily and funny thing was on Saturday morning before the show he moved Ohio State to a #1 seed and Nova to a #2 seed.

    Mostly though I don't do anything for studying this stuff until champ week and mostly when I start my vacation mid week.

    I used to love doing this stuff when I had only 1 guy Palm to compare to but now with everyone doing it just no fun.

    I won it a few times recently (I beat everyone on the matrix in 2015 and 2018 in total pts) I have got all the teams right a few times almost always miss 1.

    I have the guy though for you guys to follow. He is the guy I respect the most and the guy I follow all year long he really knows his stuff and is ranked #1 overall on the matrix.

    https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

    He has Xavier at 33 coming into today. So that be a 9 seed. Sounds about right to me.
    Thanks HM. You sound like the perfect man for the job, I must say. I agree that there are too many posers on that bus. There is so much info coming from so many directions it all gets pretty muddle. Everybody has their favorite (usually the one that has Xavier with the best seed/bracket) and the most despised (the one that has Xavier out completely). That is mainly why I thought we would do something 'in house'. It's purely for our own amusement and pleasure and not meant to 'compete' with all the noise out there. I was not even thinking that several posters would compete against each other. Heck, anyone here could put out a bracket. Most of us probably do one anyway, just not publicly. I was more thinking maybe one bracket put together by a small group of loyal XavierHoops aficionados.

    If you're telling up, "If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve." I respect that.

    But I hope you would reconsider. Just this once. It might make it fun for you again.
    You can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning.

  2. #22
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    The top bracketologist update as of today has Xavier as a 10 seed (the top 10 seed) with only 3 teams behind them before we talk about play in game. I think that’s about right.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Xavier View Post
    The top bracketologist update as of today has Xavier as a 10 seed (the top 10 seed) with only 3 teams behind them before we talk about play in game. I think that’s about right.
    At this point, I'd take a 10 seed all day every day.

  4. #24
    Supporting Member WCWIII's Avatar
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    Hard to beat the consensus of consensus (Bracket Matrix).

  5. #25
    Supporting Member waggy's Avatar
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    Current NET rating is 50, which is like a 12 seed. They've tweaked the NET imo. It's different this year.

  6. #26
    Supporting Member xubrew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by waggy View Post
    Current NET rating is 50, which is like a 12 seed. They've tweaked the NET imo. It's different this year.
    It's entirely different this year. They didn't so much tweak it as they did start completely over. Half of it is adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and the other half is a team value index.
    "You can't fix stupid." Ron White

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
    It's entirely different this year. They didn't so much tweak it as they did start completely over. Half of it is adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and the other half is a team value index.
    Wins and losses is all that matters. How you played is irrelevant.

  8. #28
    Supporting Member xubrew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JTG View Post
    Wins and losses is all that matters. How you played is irrelevant.
    To the NET??

    Who you've played is EXTREMELY relevant! Half of it is adjusted efficiency, so if you're playing weak teams that gets adjusted down. The other half is the team value index, which strongly factors in strength of opponents, where the games are played, and how good your opponents are in home and road games.

    In fact a team's overall winning percentage means far less now to the basic formula than it did last year and than it did with the RPI.
    Last edited by xubrew; Today at 01:02 PM.
    "You can't fix stupid." Ron White

  9. #29
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    You said offensive and defensive efficiency. To me that's how you play, not who and where you play.

  10. #30
    Supporting Member xubrew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JTG View Post
    You said offensive and defensive efficiency. To me that's how you play, not who and where you play.
    Oh, okay. Sorry for not being clear. It's ADJUSTED offensive and defensive efficiency.

    Think of it this way (I'll try not to be too boring). Offensive and defensive efficiency is points per possession. Nothing more. It's like a batting average. It is what it is no matter what pitchers you're facing or how many games you're actually winning. The adjusted efficiency would be the same if a batting average was adjusted to account for how good or bad the pitchers you were facing actually were. So, if you're up against a team that has a really good offensive/defensive efficiency, they'll factor that in when they adjust it so even if your flat efficiency is lower, the adjusted efficiency will be better. So, you can't just schedule SWAC teams, blow them out of the place, and pad your adjusted efficiency. On the flip side, if you play a really good team and play well against them, your adjusted efficiency could improve even if you don't win the game.
    "You can't fix stupid." Ron White

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