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  1. #1

    Early Observations

    5-0 is beautiful!

    18 point margin of victory is beautiful!

    Watching this team....is....well....did I mention 5-0?

    Ok, a few observations

    1. FT attempts per game since 2010: 24.9, 23.6, 22.8, 21.1, 22.6, 20.9, 25.2, 23.2, 24.1, 18.4, 18.4. THIS YEAR- 16.2

    2. 3PT attempts per game since 2010: 19.0, 16.4, 13.9, 12.9, 14.7, 18.0, 20.6, 20.4, 21.0, 21.1, 20.8. THIS YEAR- 21.8

    So, the downtick in FTA is a concerning item for me. The last 3 years have seen the lowest amount of FTAs over a 12 year period, with this year coming in 12% lower than our previous low. I THOUGH the trend might just be related to taking more 3s and going to the rack less, but really the 3PT attempts have been really consistent for 6 years in a row. Lets check 2PT shots...

    3. 2 PT attempt per game since 2010: 40.5, 36.7, 41.3, 38.1, 39.7, 36.4, 39.8, 36.1, 37.7, 35.3, 39. THIS YEAR- 41.0

    OK, so we are putting up the 2nd most amount of 2 pt shots in 12 years. We are shooting 58% from 2. The highest prior shooting percentage was 49.2!

    I don't know if it's just that we have a few solid 2 point jumpshooters, or maybe our bigs are just overwhelming the relatively weak opposition....and not getting fouled.

    But what I cannot measure with stats, but can SEE with my eyes is that we don't have many guys that slash effectively. Tandy settled in as a 3 point specialist last year, and looked the same way early this year, but has since increased his driving.

    on a per 40 minutes basis Tandy is pretty much taking the same about of 3s (8.2) as he did last year (8.1) and has only increased his 2 pt attempts by 1 per 40 minutes (6.8 vs. 5.7). but in fact his FTA per 40 has increased to a respectable 6.2, up from (a weak) 1.7 last year. He GOTTA be our guy that goes to the rim.

    Odom is averaging 1.1 FTA per 40 minutes, so he's got a LOOOOONNNNGGGG way to go before he reaches TU Holloway status. (Brad Redford averaged 1.4 FTA per 40 for perspective). I want to see Odom go to the rack. We know he's got the explosiveness, and now he just needs to seek contact.

    Johnson has been good in general, but he's not gonna live at the line. His high at GW was 3.5 per 40. He's at 2.1 this year.

    Carter got to the line 7.4 per 40 as a Soph at OU, and he's at 2.8 this year after 2.3 last year. I like his all around game, but finishing doesn't seem to be his strong suit. Not sure if we can expect more...

    Free is at 3.7 per 40, up barely from last years 3.5. I hope to see him develop into a Sean O'Mara scorer with better range and playing more minutes. O'Mara averaged 5.8 FTA per 40 in his career.

    Scruggs has increase to 4.3 FTA per 40 from 3.0 last year. I think he need to creep that up further to 5.5+ in order to exploit his talents. he's a decent driver, and that post fadeaway should be dangerous if he can add a little up and under.

    Jones and Wilcher seem to be unknows, but for now my expectations are tempered. I don't see where the minutes would come from, and I think Wilcher is mostly a shooter.

    Anyway, the number 1 observable improvement this team can make is getting to the line at a higher rate. I don't even care if they make them (well, of course I care but I'm really more interested in GETTING to the line as a show of aggressiveness and of course opponent Foul trouble).

    I'm feeling like a lot of other pieces are in place. Our Rebounding, Assist, Steals and Blocks per game are ALL ranked #1 over the last 12 years. Did you know that? And our Fouls per game are the LOWEST over the last 12 years.

    Our 3Pty shooting 33.9% would rank us 8 in the last 12 years. Not a strength, but better than last year.

    This team has a lot of potential. We have one glaring weakness. GET TO THE LINE, BOYS!

  2. #2
    By the way, Bryan Griffin, who will remain named as such needs to take his "grown ass man" frame and do something with it.

    2.0 Free Throw attempts per 40 minutes.

    ahem, Snipe?

  3. #3
    Supporting Member XUGRAD80's Avatar
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    It would be my guess that early season games tend to be called a little more loosely than later season games. I haven’t seen many games yet this year where the teams lived at the FT line, so I don’t think that most refs are calling the games really close....yet. Could change as we get later into the year.

    Also keep in mind that Xavier is playing an open-post offense this year. They lack a real “post” player and are going to rely more on movement and quickness, less on power and bulk. Getting to the line less is a by-product of that style of play.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by MHettel View Post
    By the way, Bryan Griffin, who will remain named as such needs to take his "grown ass man" frame and do something with it.

    2.0 Free Throw attempts per 40 minutes.

    ahem, Snipe?
    I love math. Free points are the best. Holloway leaves deep shoes.

  5. #5
    Hall of Famer Masterofreality's Avatar
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    So, is it any coincidence that the last 3 years have seen the lowest free throw average per game in that 12 year time frame? No. That is a direct result of Steeles offense that sets hardly any screens for pick and rolls or back door cuts. It also is the result of big guys not being under the basket when many of our outside shots go up. I’d like to see a stat as to Xavier’s offensive rebounds per game in the last 3 years vs prior. No rebounds and you can’t get fouled on stick backs.
    See, this was a major part of my criticism of Steele over the last two years. He didn't have shooters, as per everyone who is on this board, but he hard-headedly ran the same offense that never got guys close to the basket and free-throws suffered. Hence my contention that the roster over the last two years was misused and under utilized.

    We used to have an important goal- to make more Free Throws than the other team attempts. That is out the window and to our detriment. We barely beat 3 mid-major mediocre teams. Just like last year, I blame schematics.

    Thankfully we have better shooters, and maybe it will change with Colby & CJ, but our lack of getting to the rack will hurt us in the long run.
    Last edited by Masterofreality; 12-04-2020 at 11:48 AM.
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  6. #6
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    Attack the rim- get to the FT line and win games that way. It was all fine and well until the calls didn't come. Tu (love him) would try to get fouled every drive. It really did hurt us in the tournament when refs swallow whistles more.

    To be honest it doesn't really look that much different than what Steele is doing. Two things that stick out that are different- Mack had the shooters (scorers) and Mack is one of the top coaches designing plays out of Time outs. Always felt like a bucket was coming. Outside of that the offense doesn't look much different to me. I think KyKY has a great ability driving (his pull ups are very good) and Odom reminds me a lot of lyns- he will be able to get to the rim at will soon.
    Last edited by Xavier; 12-04-2020 at 12:36 PM.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Masterofreality View Post
    It also is the result of big guys not being under the basket when many of our outside shots go up. I’d like to see a stat as to Xavier’s offensive rebounds per game in the last 3 years vs prior. No rebounds and you can’t get fouled on stick backs.
    Here you go MOR

    OREBS per game since 2010: 12.7, 10.3, 10.5, 10.6, 11.1, 9.8, 12.8, 11.9, 9.7, 10.6, 11.9 THIS YEAR: 10.4

    So, I don't really see anything too compelling here. The last 3 years under Steele look pretty typical in the context of the 12 years of data.

    Another way to look at it is by taking a ratio of ORebs vs. Opponent DRebs. So basically, who is getting the rebound when we miss a shot.

    Since 2010: 35.2%, 32.4%, 31.3%, 34.3%, 34.1%, 31.3%, 35.2%, 34.5%, 29.9%, 32.2%, 32.2% THIS YEAR: 30.6%

    Again, not seeing anything too compelling.

    I'm sticking to the theory that we aren't driving and seeking contact.

    One thing that could contribute is the FTs at the end of a game to close out. But really those only happen in wins that are pretty tight, but not too tight, down the stretch.

  8. #8
    Hall of Famer Masterofreality's Avatar
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    Thanks Hett!
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  9. #9
    Hall of Famer xu82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Masterofreality View Post
    So, is it any coincidence that the last 3 years have seen the lowest free throw average per game in that 12 year time frame? No. That is a direct result of Steeles offense that sets hardly any screens for pick and rolls or back door cuts. It also is the result of big guys not being under the basket when many of our outside shots go up. I’d like to see a stat as to Xavier’s offensive rebounds per game in the last 3 years vs prior. No rebounds and you can’t get fouled on stick backs.
    See, this was a major part of my criticism of Steele over the last two years. He didn't have shooters, as per everyone who is on this board, but he hard-headedly ran the same offense that never got guys close to the basket and free-throws suffered. Hence my contention that the roster over the last two years was misused and under utilized.

    We used to have an important goal- to make more Free Throws than the other team attempts. That is out the window and to our detriment. We barely beat 3 mid-major mediocre teams. Just like last year, I blame schematics.

    Thankfully we have better shooters, and maybe it will change with Colby & CJ, but our lack of getting to the rack will hurt us in the long run.

    So, is it safe to assume that Steele is not on your Christmas card list?

  10. #10
    Hall of Famer Masterofreality's Avatar
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    Never “Assume”
    You know the rest.
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