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Thread: Covid-19

  1. #811
    Hall of Famer xu82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    Even if it doesn't decrease the area under the curve, flattening the curve is still a good thing. It's more manageable because the medical system capacity is not exceeded. To do that, you push the peak further out in the future. So I don't understand your response at all.
    Exactly, we can’t all get sick at once. We will almost all face it, but you’re more likely to die of the virus or anything else if gurneys are stacked up in the hallways and the healthcare workers are dropping like flies.

  2. #812
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    Even if it doesn't decrease the area under the curve, flattening the curve is still a good thing. It's more manageable because the medical system capacity is not exceeded. To do that, you push the peak further out in the future. So I don't understand your response at all.
    If that was as a reply to me, you do understand it perfectly - what you said is exactly what I said! I added that some States are already very near their peak, and that peak will be well below the respective medical capacity. Therefore social distancing worked, and can now be relaxed. I’ll add not at once, but strategically, deliberately, and with close monitoring to keep below the line on the curve of the medical system capacity.
    "...treat 'em with respect, or get out of the Gym!"

  3. #813
    Senior xavierj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton View Post
    If that was as a reply to me, you do understand it perfectly - what you said is exactly what I said! I added that some States are already very near their peak, and that peak will be well below the respective medical capacity. Therefore social distancing worked, and can now be relaxed. I’ll add not at once, but strategically, deliberately, and with close monitoring to keep below the line on the curve of the medical system capacity.
    Are bodies stacking up in the states that have been relaxed during this? I have heard some animosity toward some republican governors that have not mandated the measures that other states have. Or is that just media trying to push an agenda.

  4. #814
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton View Post
    If that was as a reply to me, you do understand it perfectly - what you said is exactly what I said! I added that some States are already very near their peak, and that peak will be well below the respective medical capacity. Therefore social distancing worked, and can now be relaxed. I’ll add not at once, but strategically, deliberately, and with close monitoring to keep below the line on the curve of the medical system capacity.
    OK, then I guess I only didn't understand the "not necessarily" part of your response to me since you just supported/added to what I said.

    But I see we are on the same page, so good.

  5. #815
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xavierj View Post
    Are bodies stacking up in the states that have been relaxed during this? I have heard some animosity toward some republican governors that have not mandated the measures that other states have. Or is that just media trying to push an agenda.
    The Republican states are going to get their peaks later, so they're not quite out of the woods. However, the people in Republican states generally don't live on top of each other so much as people do in bluer states. So they (we since I live in Kansas) are less susceptible to this in the first place I have to think.

  6. #816
    Junior Lloyd Braun's Avatar
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    Iceland’s approach is interesting and seems ideal. Test as many people as possible and quarantine the positives while not taking as many public measures. Obviously not feasible yet here but would be nice if it were.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/icel...untries-2020-4

  7. #817
    Hall of Famer xu82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xavierj View Post
    Are bodies stacking up in the states that have been relaxed during this? I have heard some animosity toward some republican governors that have not mandated the measures that other states have. Or is that just media trying to push an agenda.
    Our Governor in GA said just a few days ago he learned it could be spread by people without symptoms in the previous 24 hours. I know I’ve posted this before......but I’m still in disbelief that he could say something so stupid!

    Now he’s opened the beached up again. Just say it! People re going to die, and you don’t care! I know there’s a balancing act, but don’t flat out lie about “oh, I just learned! This is a game changer!”

  8. #818
    Supporting Member paulxu's Avatar
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    Would be interested to know if our resident doctors think this is a good overview:

    https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/04/0...viral-newbies/
    ...he went up late, and I was already up there.

  9. #819
    Supporting Member GIMMFD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
    Would be interested to know if our resident doctors think this is a good overview:

    https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/04/0...viral-newbies/
    My thoughts, I guess take it for what it's worth:
    - Hate that they called it a new virus, it's not a new virus, Coronavirus is the second leading cause of the common cold, and the reason for the SARS/MERS outbreak, it's a NEW STRAIN. I know that seems a bit trivial to point out, but just saying.

    - The whole thing about most infectious diseases when you're born was worded super weird. Basically what happens is when a baby is born it's protected with it's mother's antibodies for the first 2 months of life (this is why the first vaccines are given at 2 months of age), then the child produces IgM antibodies in response to those vaccines (this lasts 2 months as well, which is why you give the next round of shots at 4 months). IgG antibodies are stronger, however these are produced until 6 months of age, and then last for a year. I don't know what they mean by "BAM child gets them because they're the most infectious," like I guess technically yeah that's true, but a child also has much less protection than we do, and there also a whole lot of Biochemistry about ATP, rapidly dividing cells, when the body uses de novo synthesis rather than the salvage pathway that I'll spare you guys on.

    - R-naught for Coronavirus is around 2-2.5, measles is pretty big, I've seen anywhere from like 3-10s, the seasonal flu is about 1.3, SARS was 2-4, MERS was 2.5-7, and H1N1 around 1.2-1.6; saying this is the most infectious thing any of us have faced in our lives is context, sure if the author is in his 20s-30s, that makes sense, if it's someone in their 50s, 60s, 70s, etc. that's not true, context.

    - I have no idea why that whole HIV/Yersina section was there, not sure what the main point of that was, if it was to saw COVID has the same R-naught, then Yersina's is around 2.8-3.5, HIV's is around 2-5.

    - It's not that much more infectious than SARS or MERS, the SARS genome and COVID genome actually share about 70-80% of the same spike protein he talks about, there's a reason people have started calling it SARS-CoV2.

    - The immune section run down was great.

    - Smallpox has an R-naught of 3.5-6, that doesn't fall under his definition of endemic. Endemic's basically belong to just one country or region, while pandemics spread world wide, so saying that endemics basically fall under the "R-naught = 1" line wouldn't be how I'd define an endemic.

    - Overall decent stuff in there, the general points were pretty okay, I feel like I'm nitpicking some stuff out of it, but that's just really due to wording/interpretation which falls on the reader. I think it does well in showcasing why this thing ramped up so much and infected a lot of people, and also did well to calm people about the most likely presentation on severity, symptoms, etc.

  10. #820
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
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    They also probably could have avoided the bizarre hydroxychloroquine rant at the end. I swear people are actively hoping that drug is not effective here just because Trump is pushing it.

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