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Thread: Covid-19
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10-26-2020, 05:41 PM #3191
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"...treat 'em with respect, or get out of the Gym!"
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10-26-2020, 06:26 PM #3192
Yeah, those experts @ Johns Hopkins probably full of shit.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases2023 Sweet 16
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10-26-2020, 07:35 PM #3193
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10-26-2020, 08:58 PM #3194
Sure, he was questioning the legitimacy of the data, no proposal:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/covid-19-daily-video2023 Sweet 16
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10-27-2020, 06:08 AM #3195
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Xavier always goes to the NCAA tournament...Projecting anything less than that this season feels like folly--Eamonn Brennan, ESPN (Summer Shootaround, 2012)
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10-27-2020, 07:18 AM #3196
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JHU just compiles the data. This doesn't refute that the data are bad. The issues have been covered multiple times, but in the spirit of no child left behind, here we go again, consolidated on one single place.
Part 1: Test, test, test.
Since summer, the U.S. has been testing at the greatest rate in the world. Never before have the healthy been tested, and tested over and over. Never before have infections disease tests been available without a Dr. orders and for drive-thru fun. Testing is turning up "cases" for those who are asymptomatic. It's turning up cases in those who had it months ago. Check a graph of tests over time, compared to cases. It's staggering. Now if the tests were reliable, no big deal, but...
Part 2: Are you positive?
The answer is "I have no idea". The PCR test (most common) is producing a significant number of false positives, with a 3% rate, when run at the CDC-recommended 40 amplification cycles (Ct). This means around 50% of the "cases" are not real. The new "rapid screen" test claims their false positive rate is 1.5% (again, their claim). Add the over use of bad tests, and this problem is compounded.
Part 3: Show me the money!
It's not a secret that the CARES act provides for a 25% premium for treating CV19. Everyone in the hospital, in-patient or out-patient, gets a test! See Part 1 and Part 2, above. Cha-ching! Now I won't be so misanthropic as to claim that medical professionals are falsifying records to add cases for the CARES bonus. But I also won't be ignorant enough to not recognize the gray area, and how this could legitimately be exploited: presumptive positives, patient shows up who had CV19 months ago, maybe crank up the PCR Ct a bit. To think these things aren't happening is foolhardy.
So, what do you get when you take excessive testing, add nearly half false positives, and add a financial incentive? Case overcount. Radical case overcount.
As we know, "cases lead to deaths". Case overcount = death overcount. So when you see numbers like "4% of the population and 25% of the deaths", that is why.
My advice it to pretend you're a fish, and check every worm for a hook before you swallow it. There's a lot of fisherman out there."...treat 'em with respect, or get out of the Gym!"
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10-27-2020, 07:50 AM #3197
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10-27-2020, 09:23 AM #3198
According to the Global Covid-19 tracker we only had 1.5% of the worldwide deaths yesterday. Yay?
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/
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10-27-2020, 09:28 AM #3199
France is absolutely blowing up, by the way. Not sure what the deal is there.
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10-27-2020, 10:22 AM #3200
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Are you denying that Trump has trashed his science team on covid (here's a link to help you remember: https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...d61_story.html), or that Trump is a climate change denier in spite of the overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is occurring? And please tell me how your last sentence in your original post isn't to be read as trashing science...like your hero in the WH does.
Xavier always goes to the NCAA tournament...Projecting anything less than that this season feels like folly--Eamonn Brennan, ESPN (Summer Shootaround, 2012)
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