Covid-19

[Lloyd Braun]

Feels deserving to have its own thread at this point...

It is officially in Ohio (3 cases announced today in Cuyahoga) and will soon be widespread everywhere. The economic impact is massive obviously. I am more concerned with the general “no big deal” approach we have seen that has slowed testing and treatments. I would expect the mortality rate to be lower in the US than China, but it is concerning that we really don’t have widespread testing available at this point.

Also not suggesting a massive panic or freak out is validated but the way this has been handled here has been a cluster f.

[GoMuskies]

How do you think it SHOULD be (or have been) handled here? Promise it's not a "gotcha!" question. Just curious what you think.

[nuts4xu]

Why are people stocking up on toilet paper? Does the corona virus give you the shits?

[xeus]

Why are people stocking up on toilet paper? Does the corona virus give you the shits?

That's a great question. I feel like there's something I'm missing out on.

[GIMMFD]

Mortality rate is unknown currently and fluctuates wildly. Current WHO estimate is 3.4%.

The tests are easy to produce if given the appropriate funds, it’s a simple RNA PCR test similar to the flu. The problem was we were waiting until it was in the US to allocate funding. I’m not blaming Trump but at the same time when it is eradicated and he says what a great job all of his people did to prevent so many deaths (which he will inevitably take credit for) I will be happy to call BS on those saying it’s not his fault now for rapid spreading and lack of testing.

Oh, and toilet paper is nice to stock up on if you don’t leave the house... I bet there are a lot of Italians in need of a nice roll of charmin.

The mortality rates are unknown due to how it's being reported (aka some countries may not be honest with their numbers, etc.), but I tell you whole heartedly without any doubt in my mind, with a lot of medical jargon crap that I won't bore you guys with, that the numbers I said (1-3% in the general population, 10% with a risk factor, 20% with two risk factors) are how it plays out. The reason the mortality rate is fluctuating wildly is really because it depends who gets infected, the ones more at risk are obviously have a higher chance to die, and as it is a respiratory droplet transmission virus it's much easier to transmit. If you remember the Ebola scare a few years ago, the US only had 1 case I believe, and it was pretty well contained in Africa, that's because that virus spreads through human contact (ie bodily fluids basically), couple that with the fact that this one does decently well in warm weather, it's going to play out longer, so the mortality rates will continue to fluctuate, again depending on who gets infected.

You are very correct about the testing, and I will agree that the US government has dropped the ball on appropriately preparing for this endemic. Unfortunately because the strain is very different from past Coronaviruses we aren't exactly sure the complete characteristics on it, how long it can live on surfaces, etc. There's probably not going to be a vaccine for it made (ie in 2003 when SARS was going on, they were making a vaccine for it, but then the endemic stopped before the vaccine reached clinical trial), but it absolutely blows my mind that when it first started becoming a major thing in China why we weren't already pushing out testing for places. Though testing is going to be more available in the next coming weeks, it was a complete misstep to not prepare for it properly.

Here's what Harvard's Medical Department had to say about it, I haven't read it, but I have a feeling if you read it, it'll basically be saying the same things I have: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/...-2020022719004

Why are people stocking up on toilet paper? Does the corona virus give you the shits?

Lmfao well actually some percentage of people have been reporting GI symptoms with it, but in general no, I think it's just in case you run out of toilet paper and there's a shutdown like what's going on in Italy. I'm sure you could go the old European way and figure out a makeshift bidet.

[Lloyd Braun]

Here's what Harvard's Medical Department had to say about it, I haven't read it, but I have a feeling if you read it, it'll basically be saying the same things I have: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/...-2020022719004

This link is mostly “old” data that is in all common terms. Which is fine and has value... There are some interesting tidbits coming out in the medical community regarding treatments and vaccination. The time to make a vaccine is actually only a few weeks away but the virus is supposedly mutating too rapidly for it to be effective. There is evidence of several medications being effective against this strain of coronavirus, one of which is chloroquine. This is a widely available medication in the US. Other antivirals that are likely effective may be less available. The Chinese have done a lot of research on this outbreak and for what it’s worth, have contributed a lot of data to the research community.

I do agree that mortality rates are poorly reported for many reasons. Further, there are likely hundreds (at minimum probably thousands) of undiagnosed cases that people survived. The WHO tries to factor those in but it is impossible to do so accurately. When it’s all said and done it will likely vary by country. Strangely enough Germany has a very good reported mortality rate thus far FWIW.

[scoscox]

Strangely enough Germany has a very good reported mortality rate thus far FWIW.

good news for midwesterners

[GIMMFD]

This link is mostly “old” data that is in all common terms. Which is fine and has value... There are some interesting tidbits coming out in the medical community regarding treatments and vaccination. The time to make a vaccine is actually only a few weeks away but the virus is supposedly mutating too rapidly for it to be effective. There is evidence of several medications being effective against this strain of coronavirus, one of which is chloroquine. This is a widely available medication in the US. Other antivirals that are likely effective may be less available. The Chinese have done a lot of research on this outbreak and for what it’s worth, have contributed a lot of data to the research community.

I do agree that mortality rates are poorly reported for many reasons. Further, there are likely hundreds (at minimum probably thousands) of undiagnosed cases that people survived. The WHO tries to factor those in but it is impossible to do so accurately. When it’s all said and done it will likely vary by country. Strangely enough Germany has a very good reported mortality rate thus far FWIW.

Ah, I figured it would have some decent information, someone sent it along to me, I just hadn't had a chance to look through it. My apologies! The problem with vaccines are that, the virus does mutate very quickly, basically the virus is a single-stranded RNA, positive sense, helical capsid, and enveloped. So to break that down a little bit, basically a positive sense RNA virus is very similar to mRNA, mRNA is basically the genetic code that gets translated into proteins in you body, which proteins obviously have a vast variety of functions. Because of that it means that human hosts immediately translate this into protein. Now, the capsid is like a shell almost for the virus, and enveloped means that the capsid is coated with fats, this is also acquired by the host. This basically ends up protecting the genetic make up of the virus and allows for it to communicate with hosts. The protection is very strong, it protects it from stuff like radiation, acids, temperature, etc. Then, we gotta understand that RNA viruses mutate more than DNA viruses, and this is because RNA viruses kind of lack a "proof-reading" function that DNA viruses do. That's the whole basis of how the viruses is changing itself. The timing is sensitive, and it's the regulation more of having to do clinical trials, which is necessary to assess side effects, efficacy, etc. It's just really hard to try to streamline that process to make an effective vaccine.

I did see the reports out on Chloroquine seeming to be pretty effective. It's undergoing the clinical trial phase for Coronavirus actually. This is a basically a drug used to treat Malaria. The way it works for Coronavirus is a little bit different than what it does for Malaria. It basically goes into one type of your cells, makes that environment more basic, and then interferes with another process that allows for the virus to get into your cells. Chloroquine is actually a pretty relatively safe drug, so I could see that becoming one of treatments moving forward. The other drug they researched that seemed to be effective was the anti-viral Remdesivir, which was seen as promising for SARS/MERS, and is clinical development for treatment of Ebola. I have think that one may be a little tougher to get in the United States, so this is true. I still do think that these treatments will be held off unless it's for severe cases, with the typical treatment being still the quarantine and letting your immune system fight off against it however. Sorry for all the medical jargon, hopefully I simplified it well enough to be followed, because I do think us as the medical community are very bad at communicating in ways that people can understand, and that can lead to fears.

Yup, that's the thing, it's incredible difficult to try to follow up with recovery cases, not to mention the amount of people who might have had it, mistaken it for the common flu, and never went to go get it checked out. It's definitely something I think people should be weary about, but I definitely think a lot of the fear is from not exactly knowing what's going on about the virus, and what it's characteristics and stuff are. Ultimately, we don't know everything about this virus, but we do know the general characteristics of Coronavirus to be able to help communicate and hopefully negate some of the worries. Obviously if there's any questions by anybody here, I'm more than happy to try to simplify it a bit more and make some analogies that will make sense! I also want to express I'm in no way trying to be combative or anything, in case any of this comes off as arrogant or what not. Just enjoy a good discussion about medicine from time to time!

[Strange Brew]

Why are people stocking up on toilet paper? Does the corona virus give you the shits?

Haha, answer. People are nuts Nuts..

[xubrew]

Feels deserving to have its own thread at this point...

It is officially in Ohio (3 cases announced today in Cuyahoga) and will soon be widespread everywhere. The economic impact is massive obviously. I am more concerned with the general “no big deal” approach we have seen that has slowed testing and treatments. I would expect the mortality rate to be lower in the US than China, but it is concerning that we really don’t have widespread testing available at this point.

Also not suggesting a massive panic or freak out is validated but the way this has been handled here has been a cluster f.

I've not yet seen the 'general no big deal' response. Everyone seems to be taking it extremely seriously.