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Thread: Covid-19

  1. #2681
    Junior Lloyd Braun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juice View Post
    Australia, which I have been told did it right because they completely locked down, are experiencing a second wave.

    https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/...958649346?s=20
    More evidence lockdown contains the disease.

  2. #2682
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    Sweden would disagree. Seriously we close again for two weeks and the what? Think as a country we are passed that as we can’t afford to. That’s why you see countries like Australia opening up again. You can’t remained closed forever.

  3. #2683
    All-Conference Juice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun View Post
    More evidence lockdown contains the disease.
    Look at Sweden’s curve used in this article. It’s a lot more promising than anyone else’s.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...w-cases-plunge

  4. #2684
    Senior xavierj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun View Post
    Yea and pretty much everywhere went up after reopening. More cases are probably not a good thing as we really don’t know the long term effects of this. There is a lot of data suggesting long term organ damage. It might be temporary but we just don’t know. You want that risk? Have at it
    Yeah it’s called life. This thing is here to stay so might as well get on with it. We will see about long term damage. I know several people who have had it and none of them had many issues with it and so far nothing since they got over it. Those that want to lock themselves in a room, enjoy.

  5. #2685
    Junior Lloyd Braun's Avatar
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    I’m not arguing for another lockdown, I was just replying to this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton View Post
    This has been covered. We have ample evidence that lockdowns work... if your goal is to destroy peoples lives. But if you're trying to stop the spread of a disease, not so much:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/kylamb8/s...78514950459393
    Lockdowns halt the spread of the disease. Now, whether they are the best option for society is a completely different argument. Sweden made their decision to not implement a full lockdown. I hold the opinion that we could not implement that here for many reasons - logistically, culturally, and reasons touched upon months ago several pages back. What’s right for Sweden may not be right for us and vice versa. So comparing our curve to Sweden is not fair to us. Comparing Sweden’s curve to their Scandinavian counterparts though? That’s probably more fair.

  6. #2686
    Junior Lloyd Braun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xavierj View Post
    Yeah it’s called life. This thing is here to stay so might as well get on with it. We will see about long term damage. I know several people who have had it and none of them had many issues with it and so far nothing since they got over it. Those that want to lock themselves in a room, enjoy.
    You can certainly draw a conclusion based on an extremely small set of people you know. I will do the same with the small sample size I have, which leaves some questions on long term issues. For example, a younger male in his 30’s I know who had COVID in March is not able to exercise to the same degree as he did before the illness. It turns out his heart has experienced some degree of damage which is presumed to be due to some sort of myocarditis. The cardiac tissue was damaged, and it is unknown whether that is permanent or not. I’m not locking myself in a room by any means, but I’m also not going to be quick to make a conclusion that more cases are a good thing to obtain immunity. I would rather obtain immunity through a vaccine.

  7. #2687
    Junior Lloyd Braun's Avatar
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    This is pretty amazing... It’s actual real life value is probably low but still impressive!

    https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.c...79-020-05281-3

    Results
    The dogs were able to discriminate between samples of infected (positive) and non-infected (negative) individuals with average diagnostic sensitivity of 82.63% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 82.02–83.24%) and specificity of 96.35% (95% CI: 96.31–96.39%). During the presentation of 1012 randomised samples, the dogs achieved an overall average detection rate of 94% (±3.4%) with 157 correct indications of positive, 792 correct rejections of negative, 33 incorrect indications of negative or incorrect rejections of 30 positive sample presentations.

  8. #2688
    Supporting Member boozehound's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton View Post
    My source is a detailed statistical analysis done at the end of the lockdowns. You know, the period in question.
    Am I missing something? It looks like uncited data from a guy who runs a Buckeyes sports podcast? Several others have pointed on the flaws in that analysis, including:

    1. The "research" dates back to May which is almost 2 months before the most 'open' states started to see cases surge - an updated analysis might likely point to a different outcome

    2. Severity of lockdown, particularly initially, was somewhat directly correlated to the severity of outbreak. The places that hadn't (yet) had outbreaks didn't lock down for as long (if at all). Of course not locking down looks more effective.

    3. There are dramatic differences in population density among the states. Look at Group 5: AR, IA, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY. There are no major cities in those states.

    Finally - everyone holds up Sweden as an example, but ignores most of the rest of Western Europe who are doing substantially better than the US right now. They are much closer to returning to normal life. It's not entirely clear how much of their recent success in reopening is due to a thorough lockdown and how much is due to masks and precautions post-lockdown.

    We did the worst thing we could possibly have done, IMO. We half-ass locked down and then squandered it by re-opened without masking and put people back in bars, restaurants, and Gyms. Now here we are.
    Eat Donuts!

  9. #2689
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    Quote Originally Posted by boozehound View Post
    Am I missing something? It looks like uncited data from a guy who runs a Buckeyes sports podcast? Several others have pointed on the flaws in that analysis, including:

    1. The "research" dates back to May which is almost 2 months before the most 'open' states started to see cases surge - an updated analysis might likely point to a different outcome

    2. Severity of lockdown, particularly initially, was somewhat directly correlated to the severity of outbreak. The places that hadn't (yet) had outbreaks didn't lock down for as long (if at all). Of course not locking down looks more effective.

    3. There are dramatic differences in population density among the states. Look at Group 5: AR, IA, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY. There are no major cities in those states.

    Finally - everyone holds up Sweden as an example, but ignores most of the rest of Western Europe who are doing substantially better than the US right now. They are much closer to returning to normal life. It's not entirely clear how much of their recent success in reopening is due to a thorough lockdown and how much is due to masks and precautions post-lockdown.

    We did the worst thing we could possibly have done, IMO. We half-ass locked down and then squandered it by re-opened without masking and put people back in bars, restaurants, and Gyms. Now here we are.
    Western europe is also a month or two ahead of the US so they should be closer to "normal" life. Locking down the whole country because of two or three city's problems was the dumbest thing we did in my opinion.

  10. #2690
    Supporting Member boozehound's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xville View Post
    Western europe is also a month or two ahead of the US so they should be closer to "normal" life. Locking down the whole country because of two or three city's problems was the dumbest thing we did in my opinion.
    I guess we could check back in a month or so, or look at there they were a month ago.

    I'm actually with you that I think locking down the whole Country at the time we did may not have been prudent. The problem (I think) was that we didn't really know where the hot spots were at that point and we were afraid of a major outbreak. The unintended consequence is that a bunch of people in the South and Midwest locked down for no reason and then all convinced themselves COVID was fake which led to little / no precaution upon reopening.

    I actually think that the dumbest thing we did was not mandate masks everywhere and allow bars and indoor dining to re-open. Hindsight is 20/20, but in retrospect the following would probably have been better:

    1. Lockdown high infection rate cities and limit travel in/out as much as possible
    2. Masks for everyone - the whole country. This is probably the most important part.
    3. Outside of hotspot cities keep business and retail open
    4. Develop extensive rapid testing and contract tracing
    5. Bonus Points: Provide places for people who tested positive to voluntarily quarantine away from family if their situation requires it. For example if I test positive and live with a high risk individual it many benefit all for me to stay in a COVID hotel for a week or two. Asia is doing this, although It's not always voluntary. I'm not in favor of forcibly quarantining people in hotels.
    Eat Donuts!

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