Page 87 of 211 FirstFirst ... 3777858687888997137187 ... LastLast
Results 861 to 870 of 2103

Thread: Covid-19

  1. #861
    Sophomore Lloyd Braun's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    2,204
    Quote Originally Posted by Masterofreality View Post
    Amy Acton on March 31- per “Models”. “
    “The research has a prediction of 10,000 news cases a day in Ohio, by late April.”
    Actual new Ohio Cases today - 332.
    Also March 31- “The peak of case projection has moved from May to mid to late April”
    Total Ohio Hospitalizations for the period 3/15- current: 1,354. Welp. Testing or no, the hospitals aren’t “flooded”.
    Somethin’ ain’t adding up.
    So is she part of a big conspiracy? Incompetent? What do YOU think is going on here?

  2. #862
    Supporting Member Juice's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    8,710
    Quote Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun View Post
    So is she part of a big conspiracy? Incompetent? What do YOU think is going on here?
    Incompetent.

    The new peak date is today (April 8) which is about 3-4 weeks off from her original prediction of early May.

    Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date:

    The model estimates the dates at which hospital resources like beds and ventilators will be most needed, which it says is tomorrow (April 8). The model says Ohio has 14,290 available beds, and as of tomorrow will be using only 1,372 beds.

    There are 1,238 ICU beds in Ohio, and as of tomorrow, only 262 will be needed. Only 223 invasive ventilators will be necessary tomorrow.
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...f-america/ohio

    544 projected deaths by August 4.

  3. #863
    Junior
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Posts
    3,999
    Which model is that? The IMHE model is garbage.

  4. #864
    Supporting Member Juice's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    8,710
    Quote Originally Posted by smileyy View Post
    Which model is that? The IMHE model is garbage.
    My understanding and I'm open to being corrected is that Ohio hasn't been forthcoming on who is generating their models or which one they're using. So what we have here is simply the numbers/data cited by Dewine and Acton in their never ending press conferences.

  5. #865
    Sophomore Lloyd Braun's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    2,204
    Quote Originally Posted by Juice View Post
    Incompetent.

    The new peak date is today (April 8) which is about 3-4 weeks off from her original prediction of early May.

    Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date:



    https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...f-america/ohio

    544 projected deaths by August 4.
    Perhaps today is peak, but it seems that it will be later based on most other projections, as well as what we are seeing in the hospitals.

    I personally do not think they are incompetent, I believe DeWine and Acton have saved a LOT of lives along with demonstrating true leadership and decisiveness. The curve is flattening and we have people complaining about how this was not as deadly as we were told it was going to be without acting on it. Truly unbelievable.

  6. #866
    Supporting Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Springboro OH
    Posts
    662
    Quote Originally Posted by smileyy View Post
    Which model is that? The IMHE model is garbage.
    What model do you recommend?

    Modes are only as good as the quantity and quality of data available and used to support their construction. COVID-19 data are not robust due to the novelty of the disease. The first generation of models is then compared to and updated using actual data. Each iteration of the model is closer to reality.

    The quantity of data the IMHE used is as great as possible, and assumptions used are in line with published data and values. It was also just updated based on actual data from social distancing, which is having a profound effect than expected.
    "...treat 'em with respect, or get out of the Gym!"

  7. #867
    Giggity Giggity nuts4xu's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Xavier Nation
    Posts
    5,875
    No matter what precautions were taken, it was a no-win situation. If the models were correct, and we didn’t take the measures we did, we didn’t do enough. If the results fall short of predictions, and we took extreme measures, we did too much.

    Like everything in life, you can’t make everybody happy. I’m hopeful the models are wrong, and we can get back to life sooner rather than later.
    "All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.--Jeff Spicoli"

  8. #868
    Quote Originally Posted by Juice View Post
    Incompetent.

    The new peak date is today (April 8) which is about 3-4 weeks off from her original prediction of early May.

    Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date:



    https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...f-america/ohio

    544 projected deaths by August 4.
    All of the mitigation put into place by her counseling and advise has obviously saved countless lives in Ohio. Yet you want her to get a model perfect in a completely novel scenario.

    C'mon man. Would you have rather her been wrong in the other direction?

  9. #869
    Giggity Giggity nuts4xu's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Xavier Nation
    Posts
    5,875
    Quote Originally Posted by Muskie in dayton View Post
    What model do you recommend?
    I like this one....

    "All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.--Jeff Spicoli"

  10. #870
    Supporting Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Springboro OH
    Posts
    662
    Quote Originally Posted by nuts4xu View Post
    I like this one....

    LOL. That model needs no refinement!

    I realized what a geek I am when the word “model” first conjures up images of data, statistics, graphs, and predictions.
    "...treat 'em with respect, or get out of the Gym!"

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •