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Thread: Covid-19
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04-07-2020, 11:15 PM #861
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04-07-2020, 11:28 PM #862
Incompetent.
The new peak date is today (April 8) which is about 3-4 weeks off from her original prediction of early May.
Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date:
The model estimates the dates at which hospital resources like beds and ventilators will be most needed, which it says is tomorrow (April 8). The model says Ohio has 14,290 available beds, and as of tomorrow will be using only 1,372 beds.
There are 1,238 ICU beds in Ohio, and as of tomorrow, only 262 will be needed. Only 223 invasive ventilators will be necessary tomorrow.
544 projected deaths by August 4.
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04-07-2020, 11:46 PM #863
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- Mar 2010
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- Seattle, WA
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Which model is that? The IMHE model is garbage.
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04-08-2020, 12:14 AM #864
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04-08-2020, 07:48 AM #865
Perhaps today is peak, but it seems that it will be later based on most other projections, as well as what we are seeing in the hospitals.
I personally do not think they are incompetent, I believe DeWine and Acton have saved a LOT of lives along with demonstrating true leadership and decisiveness. The curve is flattening and we have people complaining about how this was not as deadly as we were told it was going to be without acting on it. Truly unbelievable.
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04-08-2020, 07:54 AM #866
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What model do you recommend?
Modes are only as good as the quantity and quality of data available and used to support their construction. COVID-19 data are not robust due to the novelty of the disease. The first generation of models is then compared to and updated using actual data. Each iteration of the model is closer to reality.
The quantity of data the IMHE used is as great as possible, and assumptions used are in line with published data and values. It was also just updated based on actual data from social distancing, which is having a profound effect than expected."...treat 'em with respect, or get out of the Gym!"
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04-08-2020, 08:09 AM #867
No matter what precautions were taken, it was a no-win situation. If the models were correct, and we didn’t take the measures we did, we didn’t do enough. If the results fall short of predictions, and we took extreme measures, we did too much.
Like everything in life, you can’t make everybody happy. I’m hopeful the models are wrong, and we can get back to life sooner rather than later."All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.--Jeff Spicoli"
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04-08-2020, 08:12 AM #868
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- Jan 2008
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04-08-2020, 08:13 AM #869
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04-08-2020, 08:39 AM #870
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- Feb 2008
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- Springboro OH
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