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  1. #1

    Avoiding Wednesday in the BET

    Less than 3 weeks now and the rumble at MSG begins. Working with the most likely win total for X at 9, I see only 1 fairly strong outcome that would avoid Wednesday.....finishing tied with PC at 9-9.

    Butler blew an excellent opportunity last night to make the season finale at Cintas irrelevant in the seeding process. That said, it now looks like a 9-8 record for them when they hit town. If we sit a 8-9 and WIN, would X get the tiebreaker based on the Hall win? Obviously we lose a tiebreaker with MU but they will probably get to 10 anyway.

    I guess it all comes down to that magic number NINE and if we do get DePaul on Wednesday, it will be just fine as 9 BE wins get us in the Big Dance.
    Last edited by Xuperman; 02-20-2020 at 06:12 AM.
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  3. #3
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    So I went through and ran the following permutations:
    1. The games not involving Xavier are won by the Favorite.
    2. Xavier goes 3-2 in their last 5 games to finish 9-9.

    There are 10 permutations to reach 9-9. In sixof them, we get a 6-seed, and the other four we get a 7-seed. Here they are:

    Code:
    5 Remaining Games										
    Home-Nova	Win	Win	Win	Win	Win	Win	Loss	Loss	Loss	Loss
    Home-Depaul	Win	Win	Win	Loss	Loss	Loss	Win	Win	Win	Loss
    Road-G'Town	Win	Loss	Loss	Win	Win	Loss	Win	Win	Loss	Win
    Road-Prov 	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Win	Loss	Win	Win
    Home-Butler	Loss	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Win	Loss	Win	Win	Win
    Seed	             7	6	7	6	7	6	6	7	6	6
    Note that losing to Providence is the key. All four 7 seeds come from losing to Providence.
    So we if we go 3-2, we must beat Providence. The other 4 games do not matter as long as we get 2 of them.
    Last edited by dethwing; 02-20-2020 at 08:45 AM.

  4. #4
    Junior UCGRAD4X's Avatar
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    This is interesting. It looks like if we beat Villy, we still need to beat either G'town or Providence. Even if we lose to Villy, we still need to beat G'town under the given scenario and everything else chalks.
    I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I drink 2XS.

  5. #5
    Supporting Member GoMuskies's Avatar
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    If we go 9-9, I'm okay with Wednesday night in MSG. Gives us another winnable game to pad our total. We'll be a lock at that point anyway.

  6. #6
    Man, that thing is fun to fool around with!!!

    Seems to me that everyone should be rooting for Seton Hall to finish strong and win the reg season title....then X does win that tiebreaker vs Butler if both finish 9-9. If CU wins the reg, that goes away.

    The SHU-Nova game on the 3rd could end up being key...if Nova wins and both end up 14-4, we lose the break to Butler because of going 0-2 vs Cr8n.
    Last edited by Xuperman; 02-20-2020 at 09:09 AM.
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  7. #7
    Supporting Member AviatorX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    If we go 9-9, I'm okay with Wednesday night in MSG. Gives us another winnable game to pad our total. We'll be a lock at that point anyway.
    100% with this, especially with DePaul being a Q2 game in that circumstance. Relatively low stakes.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by GoMuskies View Post
    If we go 9-9, I'm okay with Wednesday night in MSG. Gives us another winnable game to pad our total. We'll be a lock at that point anyway.
    Yea, if we can get to 9, all the rest is gravy. HOWEVER, 9 wins means we will have went 7-3 down the stretch and HOT enough to be thinking championship Saturday......you know we all will be salivating over the possibility! It would be a shame if that 7-3 finish doesn't earn us a Wednesday bye.
    Last edited by Xuperman; 02-20-2020 at 09:33 AM.
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  9. #9
    Supporting Member AviatorX's Avatar
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    I'm behind, didn't realize Marquette is only 7-6 (should be 6-7 if Xavier didn't choke that home game away). Was thinking there was a likely scenario where Creighton and Marquette finished 2/3, but that's out the window. I'd say Xavier has a better chance of going to the Sweet 16 than beating Marquette and Creighton on back-to-back nights.

    My only preference for BET seeding is avoiding Creighton and Marquette. If SH/Nova are the 2/3, I'm definitely good with being the 6/7 (assuming we're talking about a playing for NCAA seeding scenario).

  10. #10
    Junior UCGRAD4X's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AviatorX View Post
    100% with this, especially with DePaul being a Q2 game in that circumstance. Relatively low stakes.
    0.
    Good point and win a couple and the potential losses are not going to hurt us much. Maybe in seeding but probably not much if al all.
    I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I drink 2XS.

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