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  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by bleedXblue View Post
    Jesse Winker?
    He's 25 years old and has a .830 OPS in just under 400 at bats. He's not a stud but he's a very solid piece. It's just a crime that he's played over a 100 innings in center field. And he's actually had an unlucky season with a .286 BABIP.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by scoscox View Post
    I’ve never been a David bell fan admittedly but there’s no way the reds can lose this many one run games and have it be anything other than a manager problem
    A lot of it has to do with luck. They have a +13 run differential. The Angels and Padres have the exact same record or close to and have -36 and -60 run differentials. The Brewers are 3 games above .500 and have a -43 run differential. That makes no sense other than they've simply been lucky. Do I think Bell has made some mistakes? Absolutely but the Reds are a better team than their record indicates. They have the 15th best run differential but tied for 20th in win %.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juice View Post
    A lot of it has to do with luck. They have a +13 run differential. The Angels and Padres have the exact same record or close to and have -36 and -60 run differentials. The Brewers are 3 games above .500 and have a -43 run differential. That makes no sense other than they've simply been lucky. Do I think Bell has made some mistakes? Absolutely but the Reds are a better team than their record indicates. They have the 15th best run differential but tied for 20th in win %.
    We'll see what happens next season, but as it continues to happen, i continue to be less satisfied with the "unlucky" rationalization

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by scoscox View Post
    We'll see what happens next season, but as it continues to happen, i continue to be less satisfied with the "unlucky" rationalization
    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
    The stat nerds say the Reds, based on run differential and some other adjustments, are an above .500 team and "should" be sitting in third place in the division.


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation
    More on the thoery behind it.

  5. #85
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    The idea of "luck" over a 162 game season is ridiculous. I'm more of the you are what your record says you are mantra.
    Last edited by Xville; 09-02-2019 at 06:47 AM.

  6. #86
    Supporting Member bleedXblue's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juice View Post
    He's 25 years old and has a .830 OPS in just under 400 at bats. He's not a stud but he's a very solid piece. It's just a crime that he's played over a 100 innings in center field. And he's actually had an unlucky season with a .286 BABIP.
    Yeah I guess. Does he even start next year? I think he's a bench player on this team. I like Senzel, Ervin and Aquino right now.

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xville View Post
    The idea of "luck" over a 162 game season is ridiculous. I'm more of the you are what your record says you are mantra.
    Where run differential becomes very evident is teams that win a lot of close games and go into the next season thinking they're good. I think there was an Orioles team that had a negative or neutral win differential, made the playoffs but lost in the first round. People thought they would be good again but they sucked because they were kind of fraudulent.

    On the contrary, I think the Reds will be an improved team next year not just because of any possible roster moves but because their "unluckiness" should even out to the mean.

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juice View Post
    https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
    The stat nerds say the Reds, based on run differential and some other adjustments, are an above .500 team and "should" be sitting in third place in the division.


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation
    More on the thoery behind it.
    Doesn’t the manager play a role in whether or not they win those games?

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by bleedXblue View Post
    Yeah I guess. Does he even start next year? I think he's a bench player on this team. I like Senzel, Ervin and Aquino right now.
    Winker and Ervin would make a really good platoon with Winker hitting against RHP and Ervin facing LHP. Ervin is not an everyday CF but he can play there to give a break to Senzel every now and then. Winker and Ervin can also spell Aquino in RF.

    I worry about Aquino being a flash in the pan. His plate approach in the minors doesn't project to be something sustainable but who knows.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by scoscox View Post
    Doesn’t the manager play a role in whether or not they win those games?
    What decisions do you think David Bell has screwed up that Jim Riggelman wouldn't have?

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