Results 81 to 90 of 114
Thread: Cincinnati Reds 2019
-
09-01-2019, 08:20 PM #81
-
09-01-2019, 08:28 PM #82
A lot of it has to do with luck. They have a +13 run differential. The Angels and Padres have the exact same record or close to and have -36 and -60 run differentials. The Brewers are 3 games above .500 and have a -43 run differential. That makes no sense other than they've simply been lucky. Do I think Bell has made some mistakes? Absolutely but the Reds are a better team than their record indicates. They have the 15th best run differential but tied for 20th in win %.
-
09-01-2019, 10:06 PM #83
- Join Date
- Nov 2015
- Posts
- 2,111
-
09-02-2019, 02:15 AM #84
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
The stat nerds say the Reds, based on run differential and some other adjustments, are an above .500 team and "should" be sitting in third place in the division.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation
More on the thoery behind it.
-
09-02-2019, 06:33 AM #85
- Join Date
- Jan 2012
- Posts
- 14,803
The idea of "luck" over a 162 game season is ridiculous. I'm more of the you are what your record says you are mantra.
Last edited by Xville; 09-02-2019 at 06:47 AM.
-
09-02-2019, 07:42 AM #86
-
09-02-2019, 10:09 AM #87
Where run differential becomes very evident is teams that win a lot of close games and go into the next season thinking they're good. I think there was an Orioles team that had a negative or neutral win differential, made the playoffs but lost in the first round. People thought they would be good again but they sucked because they were kind of fraudulent.
On the contrary, I think the Reds will be an improved team next year not just because of any possible roster moves but because their "unluckiness" should even out to the mean.
-
09-02-2019, 10:13 AM #88
- Join Date
- Nov 2015
- Posts
- 2,111
-
09-02-2019, 10:15 AM #89
Winker and Ervin would make a really good platoon with Winker hitting against RHP and Ervin facing LHP. Ervin is not an everyday CF but he can play there to give a break to Senzel every now and then. Winker and Ervin can also spell Aquino in RF.
I worry about Aquino being a flash in the pan. His plate approach in the minors doesn't project to be something sustainable but who knows.
-
09-02-2019, 10:17 AM #90
Bookmarks