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  1. #1

    One and Done Players....how necessary are they really?

    The NBA collective bargaining agreement of 2006 is considered the beginning of the modern era of 'One and Done" Players. So it stands to reason that when evaluating just how successful teams are that have these players, in regards to reaching the final 4 and/or winning a national championship, we should start there. here's what the statistics show....

    from the period of 2006 to 2017

    there have been 112 players selected in the NBA draft that were freshman.....true One and Done players

    there have been 48 total squads that have played in the final 4 during this period

    only 11 of these squads had at least 1 freshman one and done player

    but 37 of these squads did NOT have even 1 freshman one and done player

    of the 12 national champions crowned from 2006-2017 only 2 had a one and done player...UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015

    by the years the teams with NO one and done players that were drafted into the NBA, that made it to the final 4....

    2006.....Florida, UCLA, George Mason
    2007.....Florida, UCLA, Georgetown
    2008.....Kansas, North Carolina
    2009.....North Carolina, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova (4)
    2010.....Duke, Butler, Michigan State, WVU (4)
    2011.....UConn, Butler, VCU
    2012.....Kansas, Ohio State, U of Louisville
    2013.....U of Louisville, Michigan, 'Cuse, Wichita State (4)
    2014.....UConn, Florida, Wisconsin
    2015.....Wisconsin, Michigan State
    2016.....Villanova, North Carolina, Oklahoma
    2017.....North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina
    2018.....? (possibly all 4 teams, don't know yet)

    Does this mean that One and Done players have no value? Of course not. 75% of the time there is at least 1 school in the final 4 with at least one and done. Having better players makes winning easier, no doubt.

    Does it mean that one and done players are NECCESSARY to reach a final 4 or to win a National Championship? I think that the answer to this, based on the actual statistical facts, is NO. 37 out of 48 squads had no one and done players.....77%

    Does having a one and done guarantee either a final 4 appearance or a national championship? Absolutely not. If you look at the list of players that were one and done and then drafted into the NBA, you will see dozens and dozens of players that did not make a final 4 appearance. Far more one and done players never made a final 4 appearance than those that did. it's not even close.

    Easier...yes

    Necessary....no.

    Guaranteed......absolutely not.
    Last edited by XUGRAD80; 04-16-2018 at 07:43 AM.

  2. #2
    Sophomore Lloyd Braun's Avatar
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    Now do the same for 5* recruits in general. TIA

  3. #3
    Supporting Member Juice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by XUGRAD80 View Post
    The NBA collective bargaining agreement of 2006 is considered the beginning of the modern era of 'One and Done" Players. So it stands to reason that when evaluating just how successful teams are that have these players, in regards to reaching the final 4 and/or winning a national championship, we should start there. here's what the statistics show....

    from the period of 2006 to 2017

    there have been 112 players selected in the NBA draft that were freshman.....true One and Done players

    there have been 48 total squads that have played in the final 4 during this period

    only 11 of these squads had at least 1 freshman one and done player

    but 37 of these squads did NOT have even 1 freshman one and done player

    of the 12 national champions crowned from 2006-2017 only 2 had a one and done player...UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015

    by the years the teams with NO one and done players that were drafted into the NBA, that made it to the final 4....

    2006.....Florida, UCLA, George Mason
    2007.....Florida, UCLA, Georgetown
    2008.....Kansas, North Carolina
    2009.....North Carolina, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova (4)
    2010.....Duke, Butler, Michigan State, WVU (4)
    2011.....UConn, Butler, VCU
    2012.....Kansas, Ohio State, U of Louisville
    2013.....U of Louisville, Michigan, 'Cuse, Wichita State (4)
    2014.....UConn, Florida, Wisconsin
    2015.....Wisconsin, Michigan State
    2016.....Villanova, North Carolina, Oklahoma
    2017.....North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina
    2018.....? (possibly all 4 teams, don't know yet)

    Does this mean that One and Done players have no value? Of course not. 75% of the time there is at least 1 school in the final 4 with at least one and done. Having better players makes winning easier, no doubt.

    Does it mean that one and done players are NECCESSARY to reach a final 4 or to win a National Championship? I think that the answer to this, based on the actual statistical facts, is NO. 37 out of 48 squads had no one and done players.....77%

    Does having a one and done guarantee either a final 4 appearance or a national championship? Absolutely not. If you look at the list of players that were one and done and then drafted into the NBA, you will see dozens and dozens of players that did not make a final 4 appearance. Far more one and done players never made a final 4 appearance than those that did. it's not even close.

    Easier...yes

    Necessary....no.

    Guaranteed......absolutely not.
    You sure got mad after everyone shot you down in the other thread.
    You're moving the goal posts here. You were arguing before about XU's administration telling the coaches not to recruit one and dones or whatever your point was about education. I think everyone would acknowledge that you don't need one and dones to be an elite team because we watch Villanova do it consistently very closely each year. But just because it doesn't guarantee you a final 4 it does not mean you stop recruiting them or taking them on your team.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Juice View Post
    You sure got mad after everyone shot you down in the other thread.
    You're moving the goal posts here. You were arguing before about XU's administration telling the coaches not to recruit one and dones or whatever your point was about education. I think everyone would acknowledge that you don't need one and dones to be an elite team because we watch Villanova do it consistently very closely each year. But just because it doesn't guarantee you a final 4 it does not mean you stop recruiting them or taking them on your team.
    No..I don’t get mad. I don’t get angry. I don’t get upset. This is whole Internet forum thing is like cotton candy....lots of calories but no nutritional value. I just thought it would be interesting to see what the actual numbers said, and not just what posters think they know. I thought others might find it interesting too. I don’t give a rats a$$ about reputation points or if anyone agrees with me or not. People can disagree with me, they can even call me names and make comments to me in private messages. So what. You think I’m going to let those things bother me? No way. Mind over matter. It don’t matter, so I don’t mind. I didn’t move any goalposts. I started a NEW discussion. A NEW game. You have your opinion on IF recruiting one and dones is something the Xavier administration will support, I have mine. Leave it at that. Leave it in the other thread. THIS thread is about the true value of those players, not about if Xavier will recruit them or not, or should or shouldn’t. Some have made the statement that it is NECESSARY to recruit them, that Xavier NEEDS them in order to reach a final 4 and/or win a NC. But what do the numbers say?

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Lloyd Braun View Post
    Now do the same for 5* recruits in general. TIA

    Be my guest...:)

  6. #6
    Supporting Member Juice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by XUGRAD80 View Post
    No..I don’t get mad. I don’t get angry. I don’t get upset. This is whole Internet forum thing is like cotton candy....lots of calories but no nutritional value. I just thought it would be interesting to see what the actual numbers said, and not just what posters think they know. I thought others might find it interesting too. I don’t give a rats a$$ about reputation points or if anyone agrees with me or not. People can disagree with me, they can even call me names and make comments to me in private messages. So what. You think I’m going to let those things bother me? No way. Mind over matter. It don’t matter, so I don’t mind. I didn’t move any goalposts. I started a NEW discussion. A NEW game. You have your opinion on IF recruiting one and dones is something the Xavier administration will support, I have mine. Leave it at that. Leave it in the other thread. THIS thread is about the true value of those players, not about if Xavier will recruit them or not, or should or shouldn’t. Some have made the statement that it is NECESSARY to recruit them, that Xavier NEEDS them in order to reach a final 4 and/or win a NC. But what do the numbers say?
    The last three coaches we've had have left to go to schools to recruit one and dones. One coach lost in the NCAA championship. Another has 3 elite 8s in 9 seasons, which is equal to the amount of elite 8s Xavier has in its entire existence. And the other hasn't coached a game.

  7. #7
    Supporting Member D-West & PO-Z's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by XUGRAD80 View Post
    The NBA collective bargaining agreement of 2006 is considered the beginning of the modern era of 'One and Done" Players. So it stands to reason that when evaluating just how successful teams are that have these players, in regards to reaching the final 4 and/or winning a national championship, we should start there. here's what the statistics show....

    from the period of 2006 to 2017

    there have been 112 players selected in the NBA draft that were freshman.....true One and Done players

    there have been 48 total squads that have played in the final 4 during this period

    only 11 of these squads had at least 1 freshman one and done player

    but 37 of these squads did NOT have even 1 freshman one and done player

    of the 12 national champions crowned from 2006-2017 only 2 had a one and done player...UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015

    by the years the teams with NO one and done players that were drafted into the NBA, that made it to the final 4....

    2006.....Florida, UCLA, George Mason
    2007.....Florida, UCLA, Georgetown
    2008.....Kansas, North Carolina
    2009.....North Carolina, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova (4)
    2010.....Duke, Butler, Michigan State, WVU (4)
    2011.....UConn, Butler, VCU
    2012.....Kansas, Ohio State, U of Louisville
    2013.....U of Louisville, Michigan, 'Cuse, Wichita State (4)
    2014.....UConn, Florida, Wisconsin
    2015.....Wisconsin, Michigan State
    2016.....Villanova, North Carolina, Oklahoma
    2017.....North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina
    2018.....? (possibly all 4 teams, don't know yet)

    Does this mean that One and Done players have no value? Of course not. 75% of the time there is at least 1 school in the final 4 with at least one and done. Having better players makes winning easier, no doubt.

    Does it mean that one and done players are NECCESSARY to reach a final 4 or to win a National Championship? I think that the answer to this, based on the actual statistical facts, is NO. 37 out of 48 squads had no one and done players.....77%

    Does having a one and done guarantee either a final 4 appearance or a national championship? Absolutely not. If you look at the list of players that were one and done and then drafted into the NBA, you will see dozens and dozens of players that did not make a final 4 appearance. Far more one and done players never made a final 4 appearance than those that did. it's not even close.

    Easier...yes

    Necessary....no.

    Guaranteed......absolutely not.
    I'm not entirely sure that your 112 freshman number doesnt include RS freshman as well. Do you know if it does?

    Either way that doesnt surprise me. If 112 is correct over that time frame then that is about 9 one and done players a year. We know UK usually has multiple so some of those 9 a year are on the same team. So lets say 7 teams every year have a one and done player. Some of those teams each year are not typical big time basketball schools (Simmons at LSU, Fultz at UW). But even including them if you say there are 7 teams and there are 40 teams each year who have legit aspirations or abilities to make a final 4 run that comes out to 17.5% of teams who have a legit shot to make a run have a one and done player.

    So more teams with one and dones than expected makes the final 4.

    They definitely arent necessary to make the final 4 because honestly there really arent that many of them each year.

    As someone else mentioned this would be more interesting to look at 5 star players on final 4 teams.
    "Iím willing to sacrifice everything for this team. Iím going to dive for every loose ball, close out harder on every shot, block out for every rebound. Iím going to play harder than Iíve ever played. And I need you all to follow me." -MB '17

  8. #8
    The list just says freshman, it does not differentiate between RS or not. The school with the most is Kentucky with 21 out of the 112. Kentucky (4X) did not make the F4 during any of those years without at least 1. Duke (2X) is next with 10 players on the list, but Duke won the NC in 2010 WITHOUT a one and done.

    I think that it is a pretty safe bet to say that there are a lot of 5 star players on F4 teams. But I also think that the discussion here is not about how having 5 star players will make reaching the F4 more likely, it’s about the NEED for one and done players. The statistics would seem to say that you don’t NEED one and done players in order to make a final 4 or a NC.

    One more thing.....these are only players that were one and done AND were drafted by the NBA. There are always players that go one and done and DONT get drafted. However, I think that when most people say you need one and dones in order to get to a F4/NC they are talking about kids that go directly for college to the NBA after 1 year. This list is going to have almost everyone of those kids. The exception will be the kid that leaves school, hires and agent, and makes an NBA team as an undrafted player right away....very very rare.
    Last edited by XUGRAD80; 04-16-2018 at 07:20 AM.

  9. #9
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    To start a new thread, look up the stats (informative, at least) then go on a rant about how you don’t care about opinions about you on a message board is....interesting.

    For Xavier, any chance they get they should get a 1 and done player.

  10. #10
    The percentage of teams with one and dones making the final four seems to be higher than the teams without one making it by a pretty significant margin.
    "The only time you take your hands off an opponent's throat is to get a better grip" - Byron Larkin

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