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  1. #391
    Supporting Member D-West & PO-Z's Avatar
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    We won a lot of close games because of FTs. Who would have thought that would be one of the biggest reasons we lost a close one?

    Ugh
    "I’m willing to sacrifice everything for this team. I’m going to dive for every loose ball, close out harder on every shot, block out for every rebound. I’m going to play harder than I’ve ever played. And I need you all to follow me." -MB '17

  2. #392
    Sophomore
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    not to mention FSU shot 68.5 for the season and hit 19/22 in our game. Stats show they should have hit only 15 and WE should have hit 25. I love basketball but it is not "must see TV" from this point on.

  3. #393
    Freshman
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    Quote Originally Posted by whopper View Post
    not to mention FSU shot 68.5 for the season and hit 19/22 in our game. Stats show they should have hit only 15 and WE should have hit 25. I love basketball but it is not "must see TV" from this point on.
    At a probability of .685 success per trial, the probability of getting at least 19 successes in 22 trials (i.e. 19, 20, 21, or 22) is 5.09%
    At a probability of .779 success per trial, the probability of getting no more than 19 successes in 30 trials is 4.99%.

    Assuming these are mutually exclusive events (And I'm pretty sure that FT shooting of one team should not impact FT shooting of the other), the probability of both of these events happening is just their product, which is 0.25%. I.e. we would expect this result, (or one more extreme) about 1 time out of 400.

    I doubt that makes anyone feel better about it, but I like to quantify things....

  4. #394
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    thanks and I have seen those actuary tables. Damn again

  5. #395
    Freshman
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    And here's one more way to slice it. We lost by 5, and made the same number of FTs, so I was interested in the probability that we would shoot at least 5 more than whatever they made. If they make 19 (Which they did), our odds to make at least 24 are about a coin flip (49.4%). But in general, over all possibilities, we make -at least- 5 more FTs than them 88.65% of the time. In other words, we were about 1-in-8 to make somewhere between +4, to the same, or even fewer than them.

  6. #396
    Junior
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    Quote Originally Posted by dethwing View Post
    At a probability of .685 success per trial, the probability of getting at least 19 successes in 22 trials (i.e. 19, 20, 21, or 22) is 5.09%
    At a probability of .779 success per trial, the probability of getting no more than 19 successes in 30 trials is 4.99%.

    Assuming these are mutually exclusive events (And I'm pretty sure that FT shooting of one team should not impact FT shooting of the other), the probability of both of these events happening is just their product, which is 0.25%. I.e. we would expect this result, (or one more extreme) about 1 time out of 400.

    I doubt that makes anyone feel better about it, but I like to quantify things....
    It must be the analytical side of me, but seeing it quantified in this way oddly makes feel better about the loss...
    zip em up

  7. #397
    Freshman
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    Glad I could help :)

  8. #398
    Quote Originally Posted by D-West & PO-Z View Post
    We won a lot of close games because of FTs. Who would have thought that would be one of the biggest reasons we lost a close one?

    Ugh
    Thought a big difference this year would be FTs late and experienced Seniors in crunch time carrying us / not cracking under pressure. Welp.
    Run the table.

  9. #399
    Senior Cheesehead's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Masterofreality View Post
    Florida State was a trash team who played dirty.

    So were those refs. I don't usually go here, and Xavier is a no excuse team, but:
    -No goal tend call on FSU on an obvious goaltend.
    -Naji's ankle being dirtily twisted in a sideline scrum.
    -Tyrique being thrown to the ground on the free throws for X right before the half. No call.
    - Three trash foul calls on JP.
    Ok. Rant over and I'm back in the box.
    Spot on, MOR. Yes, Xavier should have won the game but the refs were awful and we can say we are not going to make excuses but the refs absolutely had a negative affect on the game. They contributed to the loss. The proof is on my DVR.
    Zip'em Up!

  10. #400
    Yeah sounds like I'm being bitter. FSU is not a very good team.
    Run the table.

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