We won a lot of close games because of FTs. Who would have thought that would be one of the biggest reasons we lost a close one?
Ugh
Results 391 to 400 of 403
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03-21-2018, 08:14 AM #391"I’m willing to sacrifice everything for this team. I’m going to dive for every loose ball, close out harder on every shot, block out for every rebound. I’m going to play harder than I’ve ever played. And I need you all to follow me." -MB '17
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03-21-2018, 09:54 AM #392
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not to mention FSU shot 68.5 for the season and hit 19/22 in our game. Stats show they should have hit only 15 and WE should have hit 25. I love basketball but it is not "must see TV" from this point on.
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03-21-2018, 10:24 AM #393
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At a probability of .685 success per trial, the probability of getting at least 19 successes in 22 trials (i.e. 19, 20, 21, or 22) is 5.09%
At a probability of .779 success per trial, the probability of getting no more than 19 successes in 30 trials is 4.99%.
Assuming these are mutually exclusive events (And I'm pretty sure that FT shooting of one team should not impact FT shooting of the other), the probability of both of these events happening is just their product, which is 0.25%. I.e. we would expect this result, (or one more extreme) about 1 time out of 400.
I doubt that makes anyone feel better about it, but I like to quantify things....
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03-21-2018, 10:27 AM #394
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thanks and I have seen those actuary tables. Damn again
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03-21-2018, 10:50 AM #395
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And here's one more way to slice it. We lost by 5, and made the same number of FTs, so I was interested in the probability that we would shoot at least 5 more than whatever they made. If they make 19 (Which they did), our odds to make at least 24 are about a coin flip (49.4%). But in general, over all possibilities, we make -at least- 5 more FTs than them 88.65% of the time. In other words, we were about 1-in-8 to make somewhere between +4, to the same, or even fewer than them.
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03-21-2018, 10:56 AM #396
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03-21-2018, 11:00 AM #397
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Glad I could help :)
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03-21-2018, 12:23 PM #398
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03-21-2018, 12:29 PM #399
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03-21-2018, 12:30 PM #400
Yeah sounds like I'm being bitter. FSU is not a very good team.
Run the table.
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