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  1. #31
    All-Conference XUFan09's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by muethibp View Post
    I didn't see anyone correct this post. Maybe I missed it. But the average calculations are off.

    For final game appearance over all of the data here, the calculation is:(7+5+3+14+4+6+5+4+7+4+7+11+1+2+9+18+5+7+15+46+7 +3+1+37+10+32+11+35+5+21+1+11)/32 = 11.06.

    Not going to spend the time doing the calculation for all of the final 4 teams but here's the last 5 years:

    (20+1+6+37+3+10+32+35+1+11+35+27+5+21+17+18+1+11+1 7+3)/20 = 15.55

    You can quibble with when the data was grabbed - before the tournament or after (though I don't think the post-tournament effect is too dramatic...yes, you won games so you probably played good defense but you also played elite teams through the tournament so it's not easy-pickings to improve the numbers) - but the overall point is pretty obvious: with only rare exceptions, teams advance to the final 4 because they have an elite defense. Xavier's is currently 70th. Draw your own conclusions then about the Final 4 prospects.
    It's actually pretty easy to improve the numbers in the tournament for the teams that win, because the efficiency numbers are adjusted for opponent. If you beat good opponents on a neutral floor, your numbers are likely to go up. So, pre-tournament numbers are actually important, even though they're not going to completely change the narrative for a team whose defense is ranked so low.

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  2. #32
    Junior THRILLHOUSE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OTRMUSKIE View Post
    Defense wins championships and the past 16 winners had great defense. X doesn’t have great defense. So if they are to win a NC this year then they will have to go against what the stats say.
    Offense has still been a little more important.

    In the KenPom era (2002 - Present), all but one champion has been in the Top 22 in AdjO rankings (pre-tournament). 10 of those have been in the Top 5, compared to only 3 Top 5 Defense teams winning it all. The only outlier in that group is 2014 UConn, who was #58 in AdjO, but they had Shabazz Napier who caught fire at the right time. 12 of the 16 champs had a better AdjO ranking than AdjD ranking going into the tournament. Along with that UConn team, the 2013 UofL team* would be the other champ that I'd say had a significantly better D than Offense (#1 D/#17 O).

    Now of course you still want to have a good defense and I'm not at all saying it isn't important, but having an elite offense seems to produce more champs. Probably want to be Top 15 Offense/Top 40 Defense. Of course, if that holds true, X still wouldn't be cutting down the nets, but with the amount of times Top 10 teams have gone down this year, wouldn't shock me if the 2018 champ doesn't meet that criteria. So f-ck it, might as well be X that breaks the mold!

    *and I guess now I can disregard that UofL team since technically it never happened!
    Last edited by THRILLHOUSE; 02-20-2018 at 11:22 AM.

  3. #33
    Supporting Member chico's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by THRILLHOUSE View Post
    Offense has still been a little more important.

    In the KenPom era (2002 - Present), all but one champion has been in the Top 22 in AdjO rankings (pre-tournament). 10 of those have been in the Top 5, compared to only 3 Top 5 Defense teams winning it all. The only outlier in that group is 2014 UConn, who was #58 in AdjO, but they had Shabazz Napier who caught fire at the right time. 12 of the 16 champs had a better AdjO ranking than AdjD ranking going into the tournament. Along with that UConn team, the 2013 UofL team would be the other champ that I'd say had a significantly better D than Offense (#1 D/#17 O).

    Now of course you still want to have a good defense and I'm not at all saying it isn't important, but having an elite offense seems to produce more champs. Probably want to be Top 15 Offense/Top 40 Defense. Of course, if that holds true, X still wouldn't be cutting down the nets, but with the amount of times Top 10 teams have gone down this year, wouldn't shock me if the 2018 champ doesn't meet that criteria. So f-ck it, might as well be X that breaks the mold!
    Great point. Everyone is so worried about our defense but our offense is the caliber that can get us pretty far.

    I guess the point to take from all this is that pretty good teams usually get to the final 4.

  4. #34
    Supporting Member XU 87's Avatar
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    I quote a famous reporter- "Everyone in the NCAA tournament is hustling and playing their best defense. To win in the NCAA, you have to have good offense. That's why Huggins got beat so early so often when he was at UC."
    Last edited by XU 87; 02-20-2018 at 05:17 PM.

  5. #35
    Supporting Member D-West & PO-Z's Avatar
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    And not to beat a dead horse (as I have posted in other threads) but we made the Elite 8 last year with essentially the same ranked D and this year our offense is much higher ranked this year. Our defense is our weakness, yes, but when you look at our team as a whole, I think they have shown they have the ability to be a Final 4 team.
    "Iím willing to sacrifice everything for this team. Iím going to dive for every loose ball, close out harder on every shot, block out for every rebound. Iím going to play harder than Iíve ever played. And I need you all to follow me." -MB '17

  6. #36
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    Normally you hear that teams manufacture offense by playing good defense... get some stops to create momentum, and the shots will start to fall. It seems to be the opposite for this team. Like offense is too easy for them, and they expect to simply shoot themselves out of a dry stretch, rather than having to lock in on defense. When the shots are falling, they dial in and often play their best defense. When shots are not falling, there is little defense to be found. Regardless,we’ve seen this team play stretches of good defense when it’s mattered this season (excluding the stupid 2nd half against Seton Hall, of corse), and we definitely saw them turn it on in the tourney last year. We know this team is a matchup nightmare, which should be especially true in the tourney against teams who haven’t faced us. Play with a consistent defensive effort in the tourney, and anything can happen.

  7. #37
    Junior X Factor's Avatar
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    Just a couple of weeks ago, Duke had a defensive efficiency ranking just slightly better than Xavier. Today, their defensive efficiency ranking is #16. That is a huge turnaround! I think Coach K has them playing a 2-3 zone and that seems to have made a huge difference.

    Has a 1 seed ever had a comparable defensive efficiency ranking to Xavier this year?

  8. #38
    Supporting Member GIMMFD's Avatar
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    We don't need to be the best defensive team in the universe, just need to be able to get the key stops when it matters, and close out better on 3s. Can't let teams get red hot and thrash us from deep. I have a lot of faith in guys like Gates, Marshall, and Scruggs to clamp down, and our offense is one of the best in the country. If we can get key stops, and just not let teams score at will on us, we can win the National Championship no matter what the statistics say, just because we have 7 different weapons on offense.

  9. #39
    Sophomore OTRMUSKIE's Avatar
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    I hope we meet Virginia because we would beat them. Any team who struggles or isn’t a great scoring team we will beat
    Dayton isn't that bad of a place if you haven't been anywhere else.

  10. #40
    Supporting Member chico's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GIMMFD View Post
    If we can get key stops, and just not let teams score at will on us, we can win the National Championship no matter what the statistics say, just because we have 7 different weapons on offense.
    That is what I absolutely love about this team. Nobody has to get their points. If matches dictate we pound it inside we have the 2-headed monster down low (am I allowed to call Jones and O'Mara "ebony and ivory" or is that against the rules in our present day culture). Need some outside shooting, not an issue. Mismatch against our point guard - he's taking it to the hoop. If a guy gets hot - like Kanter, for instance - guys make a point of getting him the ball. If he goes cold, find someone like Marshall, or J.P. who can lovingly drop 25 on you. If we need a clutch basket, Trevor's pretty good. Nobody has the depth and versatility on offense like we do.

    As far as the defense, our secret weapon is the 1-3-1. I'm guessing we didn't play it much during the conference games because those teams are used to it and are ready for it. Teams in the tournament will be a different story. It's a defense very few teams see and it will are hard to prep for with just a few days to plan.

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