Past final 4 defensive rankings

[XUFan09]

Youre looking at data from after the tournament. If you look at where teams are before the tournament, most F4 teams are not elite defensively. In general though, I dont put a lot of stock into all these Kenpom "check boxes" to make a run in the tournament. It all boils down to finding fancy ways to say better teams have a better chance of advancing in March. Well Xavier is really good, and they have intangibles a lot of teams dont. Senior leadership, tournament experience, and having the best player on the floor in almost every game they play. If their defense was better they would have a better chance of making a F4, but even factoring in defense, I still think Xavier is one of the 8 most likely teams to make the F4. Maybe poor defense loses them a game in the tournament. But I dont think its any more or less likely than the flaws of any other team in America.

Yep. Citing Kenpom after the fact can be rather circular. If you're using Kenpom data frozen from the eve of the tournament, great, but that isn't as easily accessible.

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[xu82]

Yeah, offense is actually a stronger predictor than defense. Chad Brendel put it well: When an opponent can make contested shots at a reasonable clip, you have to have the scoring to match them.

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That reminds me of a recent home game.....sadly.

[XUFan09]

That reminds me of a recent home game.....sadly.

Lol I immediately thought of it. Villanova hit a lot of contested shots and on that day, Xavier's scoring output wasn't as good as it could be to keep it close in the first half.

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[X Factor]

Someone should look up tempo for these teams. I have a feeling teams that play at a slower tempo have done better getting to Final Fours and winning it all.

[MuskieXU]

I wrote an article about this a couple years ago. I will say that Kenpom changes his formula from time to time so the numbers may be a little different now.

https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/...ough-to-make-a

Interestingly enough, only one team in the top 70 of tempo had made the final 4 from 2006 to 2015. And FWIW pre tourney data is readily available on the website if you have a subscription. That said, I think people try to be too clever with the data. It boils down to the best teams having the best chance in March. In the past the best teams were Top 40 in Offense and Defense, so those types of teams made the F4. Thats not the case this year so these types of arguments dont really hold water.

[XUFan09]

Someone should look up tempo for these teams. I have a feeling teams that play at a slower tempo have done better getting to Final Fours and winning it all.

I mean, playing really fast isn't the ideal, but a moderately up-tempo pace where a team creates and takes advantage of transition opportunities isn't bad. Wisconsin-slow isn't that common among Final Four teams, because they don't extend leads enough against opponents and fewer possessions (read: smaller sample sizes) leads to greater variability in outcomes.

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[xu82]

I mean, playing really fast isn't the ideal, but a moderately up-tempo pace where a team creates and takes advantage of transition opportunities isn't bad. Wisconsin-slow isn't that common among Final Four teams, because they don't extend leads enough against opponents and fewer possessions (read: smaller sample sizes) leads to greater variability in outcomes.

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I think that’s particularly true this year when we go so deep. We can stay fresh while running some teams into the ground.

[X Factor]

Interestingly enough, only one team in the top 70 of tempo had made the final 4 from 2006 to 2015.

That is very interesting. Pretty much what I thought.

Last year (Elite 8), Xavier's ADJ Tempo was 223, significantly slower than this year, which is 56.

Two years ago (second round upset), X's ADJ Tempo was 32.

[XUFan09]

That is very interesting. Pretty much what I thought.

Last year (Elite 8), Xavier's ADJ Tempo was 223, significantly slower than this year, which is 56.

Two years ago (second round upset), X's ADJ Tempo was 32.

IIRC the average tempo of Final Four teams is above average but not drastically so.

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[X Factor]

IIRC the average tempo of Final Four teams is above average but not drastically so.

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Xavier's Elite 8's.

2004 Elite 8 ADJ Tempo - 230

2008 Elite 8 ADJ Tempo - 225

2017 Elite 8 ADJ Tempo - 223


There it is folks. Xavier just needs to slow down their tempo to around 220-230 and we're guaranteed at least an Elite 8 appearance!!