5 more Road wins?

[Xuperman]

Not sure where you are seeing this and how 5-4 "was" a pipedream.

Again, it is RealTimeRPI.com. However, their predictions for other BE teams are laughable. They have Georgetown winning ALL their home games except VU and again, Nova as the ONLY team that gets any road wins OTHER THAN at DePaul! They have them winning out at 30-1! So after taking a closer look the site should be totally disregarded for predicting future games.....So a 5-4 pipedream is still in play.....Go X!

[XUFan09]

KenPom has us projected to win three more away games - SJU, DePaul, Georgetown FWIW

To add to this, Kenpom and Sagarin both project 3.48 road wins, coincidentally. They get there with slightly different individual win probabilities. We match up well with Butler, so X's chances are likely better than the statistical probabilities given. If Marcus Lovett wasn't done for the season, SJU would have been a bad matchup, but as it is, the win probability there is appropriate, I think. Seton Hall had been a bad matchup in the past, but with Scruggs and Marshall being added to Kaiser and Goodin, X might have the defenders to counteract their backcourt now, making the given win probabilities appropriate.

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[GetUp5]

Again, it is RealTimeRPI.com. However, their predictions for other BE teams are laughable. They have Georgetown winning ALL their home games except VU and again, Nova as the ONLY team that gets any road wins OTHER THAN at DePaul! They have them winning out at 30-1! So after taking a closer look the site should be totally disregarded for predicting future games.....So a 5-4 pipedream is still in play.....Go X!

RealTimeRPI.com is not a good site to use.

[Muskie1995]

3 wins at the Johnnies, Gtown & DePaul are the assumed wins. We just need to steal one of the 3 between Butler, Creighton & Seton Hall. I too think Butler is the most likely just because of the match ups.

A 5-4 road record in this league is likely to solidify 2nd place finish granted it means holding serve at home and not losing (14-4 league; 26-5 overall). I think we end up 5-4 road with 8-1 home record finishing up at 13-5; 25-6 overall record.

If that is the case, I think we would be solidly starring at a 3 seed in the NCAA with being in the discussion of being a 2 seed depending upon how we fair in the Big East tourney.

[Muskie1995]

RealTimeRPI.com is not a good site to use.

I think www.rpiforecast.com is slightly better

[X-band '01]

The computers at RPI forecast (which uses Jeff Sagarin's predictor) have Xavier projected to win 4 more road games. The games at St. John's, Butler, Georgetown, and DePaul projects Xavier to win each of these. The game at Seton Hall is a virtual toss up (as is the Butler game even though we are slightly favored). Not sure where you are seeing this and how 5-4 "was" a pipedream. We still have 6 road games to play and games are not won on projections, but on the actual court. Lots of things can happen between now and March.

I wish I was that optimistic to say that Seton Hall on the road is a tossup. Xavier has yet to win at The Rock against these guys. Winning against them would put Xavier in a better spot for a Top 4 (protected seed) in the NCAAs.

Hopefully Xavier doesn't get too caught up in worrying only about road wins and thinking more of the current team at hand. St. John's is winless, but they have an annoying tendency to play either up or down to their competition.

[whopper]

agreed, in this league if you think one HALF ahead you will get your head handed to you. Better the 4 minute war, win enough of them and it will all take care of itself.

[MuskiePimp23]

KenPom has us projected to win three more away games - SJU, DePaul, Georgetown FWIW

Right. I wasn't quoting KenPom however. He mentioned realtimerpi/rpiforecast, which uses Jeff Sagarin's predictor. I was using the Sagarin predictor because what he posted was not accurate about those predictions.

[MuskiePimp23]

I wish I was that optimistic to say that Seton Hall on the road is a tossup. Xavier has yet to win at The Rock against these guys. Winning against them would put Xavier in a better spot for a Top 4 (protected seed) in the NCAAs.

Hopefully Xavier doesn't get too caught up in worrying only about road wins and thinking more of the current team at hand. St. John's is winless, but they have an annoying tendency to play either up or down to their competition.

I completely agree. Just like Villanova, until we win at Seton Hall, I won't believe it until I see it. I say "toss up" because we are 45% to win there per Sagarin which is a virtual coin flip. In reality, I do not see us winning there and would be very ecstatic if we do. Seton Hall is the only other place in the conference that we have never won at since we joined the Big East. Until we win there, I expect us to lose.

[Juice]

Right. I wasn't quoting KenPom however. He mentioned realtimerpi/rpiforecast, which uses Jeff Sagarin's predictor. I was using the Sagarin predictor because what he posted was not accurate about those predictions.

I wasn't arguing, just adding another projectiOn model to the discussion.