Rankings 2017-18

[GoMuskies]

Wichita State still somehow hanging in there at #22. Not sure why. I guesss that will give UC a chance to actually beat a ranked opponent if the Shockers don't shit the bed again this week. Kentucky can't quite find their way out of the poll (beating WV in Morgantown seemed more impressive a week ago).

[X-ceptional]

Say what you will about how advanced metrics, predictive stats, etc. etc. view this year's Xavier team, but how in the hell have I never heard of this site before today?

www.barttorvik.com

It seems to have a lot in common with kenpom, with one obvious exception that it is free. That being said, I still think it's worth 20 bucks to actually pay for kenpom and will continue to do so, but this site seems pretty interesting at first glance.

For instance, don't like our 16th place rating on the home page?

What about our 12th place rating on the Tourney Quality Games scale? Getting better...

He does an Elo rating too... we're 5th there.

In any event, I've only spent 10 minutes on it so far, and I'm just blown away that I've never even heard of this before. I don't know, maybe it's terrible, but it seems pretty good from what I've seen--particularly for something that is freely available.

Looks like the guy behind it is a redditor (warning: appears to be a Wisconsin fan), and had this to say about it

But as I've said before, people should pay Mr. Pomeroy. It's 20 fricken dollars. Per year. If I thought I was significantly cutting into his paycheck, I'd probably just stop.

To address one comment about the methodology, I feel like I've been pretty open about it, though some of that is buried in old blog posts years ago when only my mom was paying attention. Certainly willing to answer any questions. (I actually offered to donate the code to the NCAA when they were talking about coming up with their own power rating, but they politely declined.) Here are the basics:

The adjusted efficiencies are fairly trivial to calculate, and I just used public domain information to crack that nut. They are fundamentally the same as Kenpom 2.0 (before he went to efficiency margins instead of log5 / pythag before last season).

There's a home court advantage that is the same as Kenpom used to be (+/- 1.4% to offense and defense), although I don't mess around with "semi-home."

There's a recency bias—all games in the last 40 days count 100%, then degrade 1% per day until they're 80 days old, after which all games count 60%.

Then there's an adjustment that discounts blowouts in mismatches--if the MOV is more than 10 points and the difference in "barthags" (my funny name for pythag) is above a threshold, the game starts gets discounting (more and more the greater the MOV and the greater the disparity in barthags).

There is also a preseason component that is phased out once a team has played 13 games (though since not all games count for 100% of a game, it typically sticks around for 15 or 16 games).

Honestly I think that is significantly more information than what is publicly available about Kenpom, though of course I don't hold that against him because (a) it is his livelihood and (b) he has disclosed plenty enough to allow certain copycat sites to be created.

[GoMuskies]

KenPom's racism against Xavier continues. X is #16 today.

Sagarin's algorithms are finally starting to see the light, though. #9 in those rankings (though still #12 in predictor).

[HenryMuto]

If Michigan State had lost to Purdue today I wonder if X would have moved ahead of both Nova and Virginia.

Well at worst will be #4 you know they are moving ahead of Purdue.

[kmcrawfo]

If Michigan State had lost to Purdue today I wonder if X would have moved ahead of both Nova and Virginia.

Well at worst will be #4 you know they are moving ahead of Purdue.

X should be #2.

I assume MSU will be #1

[OTRMUSKIE]

No X should be 1. Michigan state has a coach that works for a school that allowed girls to be molested. Plus their SOS is 70. X has a good argument as to why they should be #1. Is Izzo under fire for knowing anything about that doctor?

[letskeepitreal]

With the losses of the top 3, I think X will be number 2 on Monday after MSU. I think Nova will be #3, then UVA then Cincinnati if they take care of SMU.

[Lloyd Braun]

I think 3 or 4. Which is appropriate.

[Xuperman]

Look for C Holtmann and the Buckeyes to make a huge move

[JTG]

No X should be 1. Michigan state has a coach that works for a school that allowed girls to be molested. Plus their SOS is 70. X has a good argument as to why they should be #1. Is Izzo under fire for knowing anything about that doctor?

Izzo is a media favorite. They'll get the benefit of the doubt no matter